Something, something deflated footballs. PSI. Deflategate. I grab your attention? It feels like the entire NFL offseason has revolved around the absurdity that is whether or not Tom Brady knowingly deflated footballs in the playoffs last year. If you’re like me, you’ve been over this story since May. Surely we’ll need to address Brady’s suspension but there are a lot more fantasy relevant matters to discuss in regard to the New England Patriots. This is a team that has always provided us with solid fantasy production across the board so don’t expect that to change in 2015.

Offseason Acquisitions: WR Brandon Gibson, WR Kevin Dorsey, TE Scott Chandler

No Longer on the Roster: RB Stevan Ridley, RB Shane Vereen

 

Quarterbacks

Even though Tom Brady’s four-game suspension was upheld by commissioner Roger Goodell, the ensuing courtroom shenanigans could potentially shift around if/when he actually misses time. For the purposes of this article (and honestly, my psyche), we’re just going to operate under the assumption he’s missing the first four games of the season.

Tom Brady finished as the eighth best fantasy quarterback in 2014 and was one point shy of Matt Ryan for seventh. His numbers of 4,109 yards and 33 touchdowns were an improvement from 2013 and he hasn’t shown any significant signs of being slowed down by age just yet. If it weren’t for the suspension, Brady would likely be ranked as the fifth or sixth fantasy quarterback heading into the upcoming season. Instead, the ban puts him toward the back end of the top-10 as you’re going to have to pair him with a suitable backup to begin the year.

With an ADP as an eighth rounder, the best way to go about owning Brady would be to back him up rather quickly within your draft. Pairing him with a guy like Eli Manning should give you a solid replacement for the games Brady is expected to miss. If you’re in a deeper league where Eli would normally be a starter, there are still solid options available like Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer, and even Sam Bradford in Philadelphia. Just keep in mind that when assembling your team it’d be wise not to build around two players that are already expected to miss time due to suspension or injury. Pairing Brady with Le’Veon Bell would force you into starting the year at a significant disadvantage.

Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to start for the Patriots in Brady’s absence and while he’s certainly an intriguing dynasty league stash, there’s not much of a reason to add him in a redraft league. Bill Belichick has shown that an average quarterback can produce within the New England offense as evidenced by Matt Cassel in 2008 so it’s not like anyone expects Garoppolo to be bad. He’ll be fine, and will probably put up QB2 numbers, but he’s only going to play four games. That doesn’t make him worth owning long-term. You know what he’d be good for though? A daily/weekly fantasy play. Don’t be afraid to roll with Jimmy G. as your QB at some point during the suspension in that format.

 

Wide Receivers

This group of wide receivers basically consists of Julian Edelman and your favorite brand’s variety pack. Both Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola have had considerable potential over the course of their careers yet have only ever been able to produce in short spurts. LaFell actually finished ahead of Edelman in standard scoring last season but it’s not like there’s reason to believe that’s repeatable.

Edelman should be treated as a middle-of-the-pack WR3 with an added boost in PPR formats. He’s developed into the team’s number one wide receiver and has strung together two decent seasons. That said, he’s only ever played a full 16-game slate once, reeling in 105 receptions for 1,056 yards in 2013. If Edelman can stay healthy, he should continue to be a dependable PPR option.

The team brought in the likes of Brandon Gibson and Kevin Dorsey for some added depth but the Patriots spread the ball around pretty thin as it is. Besides, tight end Rob Gronkowski is the actual number one pass-catcher on this team. Like I said, it’s Julian Edelman and a variety pack. This team’s weapons mean more for the consistency of quarterback Tom Brady than they do for their individual fantasy production.

 

Running Backs

The Patriots somehow managed to accomplish the amazing feat of getting us to talk about four different fantasy running backs in 2014. Luckily, two of those players are now on different teams entirely with Shane Vereen on the Giants and Stevan Ridley on the Jets. That leaves us with a combination of LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray with some other random names sprinkled in.

Currently, Blount sits atop the depth chart despite being suspended for the first game of the season. Once a fantasy darling as a rookie, Blount’s career seemed to have come to a screeching halt prior to landing in New England. Without diving into the specifics of how he ended up there, Blount was fairly productive in four of his five regular season games as a Patriot. His best game came against the Lions where he racked up 78 yards and two touchdowns. I’m a little hesitant to proclaim that his career has been rejuvenated in New England since it’s been so long since he was a reliable player but as the first running back on your bench, Blount possesses decent redraft value. By no means would I want to head into the 2015 fantasy season with Blount as a starter but I can envision a scenario where he becomes a decent flex play as the season progresses.

Jonas Gray is definitely the most interesting running back on this team given his massive performance against the Colts last year. Gray exploded to the tune of 201 rushing yards and four touchdowns…only to be late for practice and barely even see the field after that. Entering his second year, Gray could turn out to be a steal in fantasy drafts. He’s being drafted as low as running back 50, essentially making him an undrafted player. Would it shock anyone if Belichick unleashed Gray nearly a full year after his monster game? I understand that one game doesn’t make anyone a fantasy superstar so it’s not like I’m saying he’s a must own. I’m simply suggesting that if your team needs one last running back at the end of your draft, Gray is the type of player you should consider.

The Patriots often rotate running backs at will and should continue to do so with the likes of Brandon Bolden, James White, and James Develin. None of these players possess immediate fantasy relevance yet I’m certain that one of them will have a solid game at some point in the season. There’s no way to predict what the Patriots do in the backfield so the best approach is to treat the presumed starter, Blount, as a decent bench stash and view Gray as a deep sleeper. You can ignore the rest of the group for now.

 

Tight End

Now that Jimmy Graham is no longer a member of the New Orleans Saints, tight end Rob Gronkowski is in a class all by himself. He’s coming off of his second best year to date with 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns, numbers that were only rivaled by his historic 2011 season. He possesses a ridiculous fantasy advantage at a position where there is little to no separation among the rest of the group.

You’ll notice that the ranking of Rob Gronkowski tends to vary. Some analysts will have him well into the first round while others have him in the early second. Depending on format, that’s the appropriate range for a player of his caliber. Obviously a PPR league would boost his value, as would a deeper league given that there are even less decent tight ends to go around. There’s a comparison to be made between Gronk and the top tier quarterbacks of Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck such that the advantage they give you could easily make up for not going running back (or wide receiver) early. There are certainly still considerable health concerns in owning Rob Gronkowski given the fact that that he hasn’t played a full 16 games since that previously mentioned 2011 season. Even still, barring a serious injury, Gronk plus a few games of a replacement level tight end could be enough to get you into the playoffs. There’s no shame in taking the best tight end in football early as long as you plan out the rest of your team accordingly.

 

Rookies

The Patriots decided to go fairly defense heavy in the draft so there isn’t anything of fantasy relevance for us in that regard.

 

Summary

There’s a considerable amount of variety within the Patriots offense that should net us solid fantasy production across the board. Tight end Rob Gronwkoski might be the fantasy superstar of this team but don’t forget about Edelman, Blount, and Gray. Each possesses value at their current ADP and of course, the never-ending story of Tom Brady’s suspension is something you’ll have to keep in mind when drafting him. Here’s hoping that story goes away forever once the season is upon is.

 

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