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Miami Dolphins: 2015 Fantasy Football Analysis and Team Outlook

Every so often an NFL team will make the conscious decision to splurge on fresh talent in the offseason. The Miami Dolphins definitely fit that category, as they seem to have made the most noise by a mile.

It might have started on the defensive side of the ball by signing free agent Ndamukong Suh but the majority of personnel changes took place within the offense. Between wide receiver DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, as well as tight end Jordan Cameron, this is now an offense with a ton of weapons that could be poised for a major breakout in the upcoming season.

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Offseason Acquisitions: WR DeVante Parker, WR Kenny Stills, WR Greg Jennings, TE Jordan Cameron, RB Jay Ajayi

No Longer on the Roster: WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline, WR Brandon Gibson, TE Charles Clay, RB Knowhon Moreno

 

Quarterback

It’s always seemed like Ryan Tannehill has been the forgotten quarterback of the 2012 NFL draft. Obviously Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson have received the bulk of the attention but even the likes of Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles have been mentioned in the media more often than Tannehill. He’s never been a flashy or popular player, yet he managed to put together a productive fantasy season in 2014, finishing the year with 4,045 yards and 27 touchdowns. Tannehill ended up being the ninth best fantasy quarterback, with just one fantasy point fewer than Tom Brady and ahead of guys like Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton.

Not only was 2014 Tannehill’s best statistical year to date, but his numbers have actually improved in each of his first three seasons. His increased production in conjunction with his new-found weapons is why he’s being talked up as a trendy sleeper in 2015. The loss of Mike Wallace to the Minnesota Vikings was instantly negated when the team acquired Kenny Stills and drafted rookie DeVante Parker. Add another year of Jarvis Landry and an arguable upgrade at tight end in Jordan Cameron, and Tannehill's collection of weapons looks pretty good.

The two most popular sleeper picks at the quarterback position have been Tannehill and Eli Manning, with both players rounding out the top 12 in most fantasy rankings. If you decide to wait on a quarterback, Tannehill is the perfect option as the 11th or 12th guy off the board. If you’re in a shallow league, why not pair him with Tom Brady during Brady’s suspension and use one of them as trade bait? With improving numbers and a budding offense that gives him some added upside, there’s no reason to expect any regression from Tannehill.

 

Wide Receivers

The Dolphins revamped their entire receiving corps in the off season and will likely send out some sort of combination of Landry, Parker, Stills, and Greg Jennings in Week 1. I’m not sure if any NFL team has ever produced a whopping four fantasy-relevant wide receivers in one season, but there’s a good chance this offense will end up netting us at least two.

Jarvis Landry finished 2014 with 758 yards and five touchdowns, but the most impressive aspect of his game was his reception total. Landry ended the year with 84 catches, tied for the 17th most in the NFL. Those numbers might not have netted him a top-30 season in standard scoring but they were good enough to make him the 28th-best fantasy receiver in PPR formats. That’s about where he ranks heading into this season, and rightfully so. He should be viewed as a low-end WR3/flex play with an added boost in PPR.

As for DeVante Parker, the Dolphins selected him with the 14th-overall pick in the 2015 draft. That made him the third wide receiver taken, which came as a bit of a surprise since the team had already traded for Kenny Stills at that point. Parker underwent foot surgery back in July but has reportedly been recovering well. It’s expected that Parker will likely miss the entirety of the pre-season yet the Dolphins have stressed he doesn’t need to play in August in order to see the field in Week 1. You can probably select Parker fairly late in your draft and stash him on your bench until he shows us he can produce. Ultimately, his role in the offense will be determined by his health and whether or not he can outplay Kenny Stills.

Speaking of Kenny Stills, he left a declining New Orleans offense to become the primary deep threat in the steadily-improving Miami offense. Stills is expected to replicate Mike Wallace’s role in the offense as the big play option. That should bode well for him when you consider the fact that Landry is more of a possession receiver.

Similar to DeVante Parker, Stills has had to deal with offseason injury woes of his own (he’s been nursing a calf injury). The starting job might come down to whichever of the two is able to get healthy first. I believe both Stills and Parker have WR2 potential and would target either of them late in a draft. This is a team that threw the ball 595 times last season, the 12th-most in the NFL, so there should be plenty of targets to go around. Unfortunately we aren’t going to know which player will be the better option for some time. Both guys should be treated as lottery tickets that would simply be an added bonus to your fantasy team. If either one works out, great. If not, you didn’t invest too much anyway.

Sadly, I don’t think Greg Jennings has anything significant left in the tank. He hasn’t had a truly productive year since 2011 when he had 949 yards and nine touchdowns, but that’s when he had Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. With three young receivers to compete with, Jennings is likely just there as a veteran presence in the locker room and would only become fantasy relevant if someone got injured.

 

Running Backs

Lamar Miller is the perfect example of a post-hype sleeper. A few short seasons ago, Miller was regarded as the perfect sleeper candidate on a Miami team desperate for a potent ground game. It didn’t materialize as early as we hoped, and as soon as people started giving up on him he turned into a dependable fantasy running back in 2014. Granted, Knowshon Moreno getting injured and failing to produce when healthy certainly increased Miller’s value. Nevertheless, he has finally emerged as a high-end RB2 candidate with an even higher ceiling.

Miller’s 1,099 yards and eight touchdowns were enough to put him into the top-10 fantasy running backs. He finished ninth among all RBs and is ranked in the 11-15 range heading into the upcoming season. It’s a fair ranking when you consider the amount of uncertainty at the position. There’s been some chatter that head coach Joe Philbin wants to get Miller more involved in the offense, which is always a positive sign. Whether that means more carries or increasing his role in the passing game remains to be seen, but keep in mind this is already a crowded offense. There’s only so much they can do to get all of these players involved. That being said, I don’t have a problem taking Miller as my RB2 in the third or fourth round, as he could easily repeat his performance from last season.

 

Tight Ends

As you probably know, the Miami Dolphins brought in free agent Jordan Cameron as their new starting tight end. Cameron showed flashes of brilliance during his time in Cleveland, putting up monster performances despite sub-par quarterback play. His best season came in 2013 when he racked up 917 yards and seven touchdowns in 15 games. Cameron is a tremendously talented athlete who is an automatic upgrade over Charles Clay, but he’s always had health concerns. He’s never played a full season in his four-year career so I’m hesitant to call him a lock to be a TE1. Still, Ryan Tannehill is probably the best quarterback he’s ever played with, and with such a shallow talent pool at tight end Cameron is worth a flier for those who like to wait on the position. Just be wary of the fact that there’s a good chance he misses some games.

 

Rookies

There was some initial chatter about rookie running back Jay Ajayi challenging Damien Williams and LaMichael James for backup duties, but that has since died down. He’s currently dealing with a hamstring issue so I wouldn’t worry about him cluttering up the running back depth chart anytime soon.

 

Summary

I’m not quite ready to put the Miami Dolphins in the same category as the Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, and Pittsburgh Steelers as far as fantasy relevance is concerned, but they’re getting close. This is a team that has the potential to be one of the better squads in the NFL--it’s just a matter of trying to get all the moving parts working in unison.

 




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