RADIO
Has there been a team with more personnel changes since the end of the 2014 season than the San Francisco 49ers? The 49ers have lost a considerable amount of talent on both sides of the ball as well as Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, leading to wild speculation as to how good or bad the team will be in 2015. Given all the changes that have taken place, you won’t find many stats for this particular team preview, but rather analysis on the team’s new direction.
Off-Season Acquisitions: WR Torrey Smith, RB Reggie Bush, RB Mike Davis, WR DeAndre Smelter
No Longer on the Roster: WR Michael Crabtree, WR Stevie Johnson, RB Frank Gore
New Coaches: HC Jim Tomsula, OC Geep Chryst, DC Eric Mangini
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Quarterback
We’re a few years removed from Colin Kaepernick’s unexpected breakout season in 2012 when he filled in for the injured Alex Smith. Since then, NFL and fantasy analysts alike have talked up the possibility of Kaepernick emerging as a true star at the quarterback position. Sadly, this hasn’t really come to see the light of day and we’re left with a version of Colin Kaepernick that isn’t all that exciting for fantasy purposes. Since his big breakout in 2012, Kaepernick has basically been a middle of the pack fantasy QB, finishing 17th among the position in 2014. In fact, he was actually 17th in both passing yards and touchdowns last season, reinforcing the idea that he is simply middle of the pack.
The argument for Kaepernick has always been his ability to scramble out of the pocket and garner you fantasy points with his legs. His rushing total has actually gone up each of the last three years with 415 rushing yards in 2012, 524 in 2013, and 639 in 2014. Even in increasing his rushing total, Kaepernick just hasn’t contributed enough to justify his place as a fantasy starter. I suppose when you consider all of his numbers you could make a claim that he’s a solid QB2 option in a two-quarterback league but I’d much rather take my chances on someone with higher upside like Eli Manning, Teddy Bridgewater, or even waiting a little longer and swinging for the fences with Jameis Winston. Basically, Colin Kaepernick isn’t really worth more than a bye-week fill-in at this point.
Wide Receivers
With the Michael Crabtree era coming to a close, San Francisco will turn to former Baltimore Raven Torrey Smith as their presumed number one receiver. Smith has shown to be a low-end WR2 over stretches of his career but was often out-shined by Steve Smith last season. The tough part in analyzing Smith’s value in San Francisco is that the 49ers haven’t had a consistent pass catcher in years.
Crabtree and Anquan Boldin have come on in spurts, often alternating in who is more dependable. Granted, Torrey Smith is a very different player than either of those guys. Considering his down-the-field speed, Torrey Smith should be able to break some big plays whenever Kaepernick can get the ball to him. The rankings on Torrey Smith slot him just below WR3 status, which is appropriate. He possesses some upside but isn’t someone I would be confident in drafting. As for Anquan Boldin, his two years in San Francisco have been nearly identical. In 2013, Boldin reeled in 85 receptions on 130 targets for 1,179 yards and seven touchdowns. Last year, Boldin’s numbers slipped by the tiniest of margins to 83 receptions on the same 130 targets for 1,062 yards and five touchdowns. That isn’t a considerable dropoff by any means so expect to see more of the same out of Boldin in 2015.
Running Backs
Surprisingly, the most perplexing aspect of the San Francisco offense this coming season is the running game. Once Frank Gore departed for Indianapolis, (with a hilarious fake-out in Philadelphia) the expectation was that Carlos Hyde would slide right into the starting gig. It was a long time coming for Hyde as Gore had been counted out before he was ready to relinquish his place atop the depth chart. Since being drafted last year, Hyde has been pegged as the next big thing as far as 49ers running backs were concerned. With Gore out of the way, it finally became his time to shine…or so we thought. The team then brought in Reggie Bush, which, shouldn’t be all that too concerning on the surface. Bush was outplayed by Joique Bell in Detroit and is primarily a pass-catching back. The signing of Bush could have indicated that the 49ers were getting ready to imply a dual-back system where Hyde would be getting the carries between the tackles while Bush would handle pass-catching duties. That would have been a fine scenario for Hyde as he wasn’t more than a RB2 anyway.
Then news broke that Reggie Bush has actually been handling the majority of the first team reps in practice, complicating this scenario more than anyone anticipated. It’s only June so there’s still plenty of time for Carlos Hyde to reclaim his place as the first option out of the backfield but I’m definitely concerned about his workload going forward. Why bring in a guy (Bush) and give him the first team reps if you’re just going to utilize someone (Hyde) that’s been on your roster all along anyway? The whole thing just seems strange and is starting to sound more like a running back-by-committee at best. Personally, I’m likely avoiding this situation altogether if I can help it. If Hyde happens to fall to me in a draft where I’m waiting on my second RB, so be it. Otherwise, I likely won’t own him. As for Bush, he automatically becomes a late round sleeper with this report. I wouldn’t say he’s a must-draft mostly due to the murkiness of the backfield but also in conjunction with the fact that this team isn’t expected to be all that good.
Rookies and Tight Ends
Given how many defensive players decided to retire rather than return to San Francisco, it was no surprise the team went heavy on defense in the draft. The team did select both a running back (Mike Davis) and a wide receiver (DeAndre Smelter) in the fourth round but given all that’s changed in this offense as it is it’s impossible to determine if either of these players will have any immediate impact, especially with the amount of players that sit ahead of them. Vernon Davis remains the team’s starting tight end but sadly he’s regressed to the point where he has to prove he can still be viable at his age. 31 is no dinosaur even in the NFL but there’s simply too many high-upside tight ends worth rostering before you get to Davis.
New Head Coach Jim Tomsula was promoted from within the organization, as he was the defensive line coach under Jim Harbaugh. The organization also shifted quarterbacks coach Geep Chryst to Offensive Coordinator. This tells me the 49ers shouldn’t be all that different as far as scheme is concerned. It wans’t that long ago the Niners were a trendy Super Bowl pick. With all of these changes they’re essentially a fantasy wasteland to avoid if you can help it. How the mighty have fallen.
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