RADIO
For a team with an offense as potent as the Denver Broncos, they had quite the number of personnel concerns this offseason. Both wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and tight end Julius Thomas had contract concerns while Peyton Manning’s NFL future was in question due to a whimpering performance toward the end of 2014.
With Demaryius re-signed, Julius a Jacksonville Jaguar, and Peyton returning, this remains one of the best offenses in all of football even if there are some minor adjustments to consider.
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Offseason Acquisitions: TE Owen Daniels
No Longer on the Roster: WR Wes Welker, TE Julius Thomas, TE Jacob Tamme,
New Coaches: HC Gary Kubiak, OC Rick Dennison, DC Wade Phillips
Quarterback
Heading into the 2014 fantasy season, Peyton Manning was ranked as a lock to be a first round pick. If you were bold enough to take a quarterback with your first pick, you were treated to 4,727 yards and 39 touchdowns out of Peyton. The thing is, even with those numbers, he actually finished fourth among fantasy quarterbacks behind the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. As good as Manning was, he just didn’t justify selecting him in the first round.
The real drawback in owning Peyton Manning last year had more to do with the fact that he trailed off toward the end of the season, failing to throw for 200 yards in weeks 13 and 14 against the Chiefs and Bills respectively. Expand that analysis to how he performed as a whole during the last five games and you’d notice that he only had five passing touchdowns over that span. Basically, the majority of his production came during the first two-thirds of the year.
Finishing with disappointing numbers could be a sign of things to come for Peyton Manning but that’s not entirely a bad thing. Looking ahead to the 2015 rankings, Manning and Russell Wilson are often interchangeable at three and four at QB. That puts them in the third or fourth round depending on the size of your league. While I certainly agree that Manning and Wilson deserve to be ranked that high within the position, it’s their overall placement that irks me. As I’ve said in my analysis of Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger (the fifth best fantasy QB in 2014) didn’t finish much worse last season. In fact, Manning only outscored Roethlisberger by eight fantasy points. That’s not to say Ben belongs in the conversation with the two of them but in looking at their current ADP, a two round difference between Manning/Wilson and Roethlisberger isn’t justified.
Look, I can’t knock on you if you want to take Peyton freakin’ Manning in the third or fourth round. He’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, especially for fantasy, but his regression does concern me. Again, it’s not that I take issue with him as the third QB off the board it’s the price you have to pay for him. That said, I do believe there’s a certain amount of safety that comes with owning Manning as opposed to Wilson. Wilson’s fantasy production was aided by his unrepeatable rushing yards.
There’s an argument to be made that new head coach Gary Kubiak will institute a more ground-based attack. Even with that in mind, it doesn't mean Peyton's production is going to shutdown entirely. The loss of Julius Thomas is moot as well as Manning’s always performed regardless of personnel. All of these changes, his regression, and the growth of Andrew Luck all contribute to why he’s ranked at three or four rather than one or two.
Wide Receivers
Locking up Demaryius Thomas was a huge move for the Denver Broncos as they now have their number one receiver for the next five seasons. Certainly that puts his dynasty value in question given the fact that no one knows how much Peyton Manning has left but that’s another topic for another day. Demaryius is coming off of three consecutive seasons with at least 1,400 yards and 92 receptions. In fact, he eclipsed those numbers just last year with 1,619 yards on 111 receptions. It was also his third consecutive year with double digit touchdowns, finishing with 11. He’s a stud receiver who belongs in the conversation as an early second round pick.
The analysis on Demaryius Thomas is simple in that he’s as safe as it gets in round two. And if you happen to be in a deeper league, you can even feel confident with him as your first pick at 11th or 12th overall. He’s developed into a consistent high-end WR1 just behind Antonio Brown. You can expect another 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns or so, numbers good enough to justify a second round selection.
As for Emmanuel Sanders, he seems to be the most likely candidate to suffer from the acquisition of head coach Gary Kubiak. With Kubiak likely implementing a more run-heavy attack, someone in the receiving corps is going to take a hit. Expecting another top-six season at wide receiver out of Sanders would be unwise. That’s not even just the Kubiak move talking, that’s a lot to expect out of a number two receiver in the first place.
Sanders finished 2014 with 1,404 yards nine touchdowns on 101 receptions. I think the shift to a more balanced offense should lower those numbers down to about 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns. That would net Sanders a 2015 season where he’d finish as a high-end WR2 and that’s exactly where he’s ranked. He often trades places with the likes of Mike Evans, another player coming off of big seasons. Sanders might not have another monster year but he will absolutely be able to contribute enough to depend on any given week.
The last name of interest on this team’s WR depth chart is that of second year player Cody Latimer. Latimer only saw 35 snaps last season as former head coach John Fox was notorious for easing rookies into the offense. With Wes Welker no longer on the roster, this team is in need of a third receiver and Latimer could easily fill that role. The thing is, a Gary Kubiak-led offense doesn’t necessarily lend itself to producing three fantasy relevant wide receivers. Latimer in Denver reminds me a lot of Harry Douglas during his time in Atlanta. They’re non-traditional handcuffs in that if anything were to happen to the top two receivers, they’d automatically become fantasy relevant. I like Latimer’s talent but until we see some more clarity in the offense or an injury pops up, he’s not really worth anything more than a dynasty stash.
Running Backs
The emergence of C.J. Anderson in 2014 offers a whole lot of talking points going forward. First of all, Anderson’s breakout second half is proof that a decent running back with Peyton Manning under center yields massive fantasy production. Second, Montee Ball, injury or otherwise, isn’t as good as we thought he would be. Lastly, should Anderson hold onto the starting gig in 2015, Gary Kubiak can help him maintain RB1 status with ease.
All three of those things are why C.J. Anderson is being talked up as a mid-to-late first round pick. Kubiak is well known for relying heavily on one primary back and has even said so in the offseason. His recent history of leaning on Justin Forsett in Baltimore as well as his years utilizing Arian Foster as a workhouse in Houston reinforce that idea. Every offseason reports suggests Anderson will indeed be that workhorse.
Certainly Anderson has his warts as he was only productive for half a season. From week 10 on, Anderson only had one bad game with a 29-yard clunker against the Rams. Even his 58-yard performance against the Bills was padded by adding three touchdowns. He finished the year with 849 yards and eight touchdowns, numbers good enough to net him a top-12 fantasy season in any format. That’s an impressive feat for a guy who wasn’t even the initial starter.
With Arian Foster already out with a groin injury, running backs six through 10 all have question marks; it’s just a matter of choosing the one you’re most comfortable with. You should take solace in the fact that Anderson has already been pegged as the starter in a Kubiak offense that will utilize the run. Based on what we’ve seen out of Montee Ball to this point, I don’t think Anderson is in any immediate danger of losing his job. Worst case scenario, Anderson underperforms and he isn’t any more or less likely to do so than the other backs ranked in his tier.
That leaves us with the aforementioned Montee Ball, Juwan Thompson, and Ronnie Hillman. As it stands, these three running backs are competing for the second spot in the depth chart. I think the biggest takeaway here is that we’re still a few weeks away from knowing who the true backup is. Regardless of who it is, the number two RB on a Denver Broncos offense holds significant sleeper value. I don’t even think the backup should be viewed as a traditional handcuff because whoever ends up backing up C.J. Anderson should be on everyone’s draft radar. We’ll have to wait and see how this shakes out, as it’s still a little early to analyze this trio of potential backups.
Tight Ends
The Broncos didn’t really acquire any rookies of significance in the draft but they did bring in tight end Owen Daniels. The most interesting thing about Daniels going to Denver is the fact that his entire career arc has followed Gary Kubiak. Daniels played for Kubiak as a member of the Houston Texans then followed him to the Baltimore Ravens. In both instances, Daniels was fantasy relevant, albeit with a much more productive career in Houston. He’s likely not to be as productive as one Julius Thomas but that doesn’t mean he’s not worth a late-round flyer. Between his prior relationship with Gary Kubiak and stepping into an offense with Peyton Manning who looks for his TE considerably often, Owen Daniels is the perfect sleeper tight end for any fantasy owner looking to wait on the position.
Rookies
The Broncos didn't acquire any rookies with real significance for the 2015 season.
Summary
The Broncos are obviously one of the meatier teams to analyze with all of their production across a variety of positions. You should have a great deal of confidence in selecting Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Peyton Manning, and C.J. Anderson given the right price. Throw in tight end Owen Daniels as a sleeper candidate and this is a team that should continue to live up to the hype in 2015.
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