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Nolan Arenado: Burgeoning Star
When Nolan Arenado reached the majors, he was one of the most hyped prospects in the Rockies organization. While he did not have a huge immediate impact on the Rockies, he more than realized his potential in 2014. It may have gone unnoticed.
A broken finger stole more than a month of his season and impacted his power numbers when he returned (as injuries often do). He still finished with 18 home runs in his sophomore campaign with a more than respectable .287 batting average. He slugged over .500 in 2014, which puts him in the top 15-20 of all MLB players. Those slugging numbers have been consistent all the way back through the minors, as he slugged .473 cumulatively. If given a full season, I think Arenado will not have any trouble hitting 25 homers and perhaps more if he passes 150 games.
The Rockies offense is among the most formidable in the majors when in Coors Field, and Arenado will be in the thick of it. We all know what that means - counting stats. Arenado will be offered plenty of chances to produce runs which will help his fantasy value.
It’s tough to say where he’ll hit in the lineup, as Charlie Blackmon performed well enough in 2014 to be the projected leadoff hitter. After that I would imagine it’ll be Carlos Gonzalez (if healthy), Troy Tulowitzki (also if healthy), and then the resurgent Justin Morneau. Arenado would fit nicely in the five-spot, which offers him plenty of opportunities for RBI. If he were to hit 25 home runs and play 150 games, 90 RBI is not at all out of the question.
Arenado is also a rare complete hitter, which is what you need for fantasy success. As I mentioned above, he hit .287 in the games he did play last season, which you will always take out of the typically power-focused third base position. You can expect similar or improved numbers in 2015 as he consistently hit for both average and power throughout his career in the minors.
One more influential factor in Arenado’s "sleeper" status (and by sleeper I simply mean he has the ability to return positive value on his draft position) - he plays home games at Coors Field. For every run that a player scores in a road game, they score 1.51 at Coors. Next closest is Chase Field in Arizona with only 1.15. For every home run a player hits in a road game, they hit 1.39 at Coors, second only to Yankee Stadium. Coors is even head-and-shoulders above other parks when it comes to hits in general—for every road hit a player gets, they get 1.32 at Coors. My point here is that playing in Coors will be nothing but beneficial for Arenado.
In Summary
Nolan Arenado is a bona fide hitter in every sense of the word, and I believe 2015 will be where he breaks out as one of the game’s best. A potent combination of power and average along with being deeply entrenched in a high-powered offense should yield a great fantasy season for lucky owners.
The best part about it all is that you can probably wait on him, as (according to ESPN) he’s currently projected to be the 11th third baseman off the board and the 96th overall player. That puts him in the eight to ninth round range, depending on the size of your league. Don’t miss the chance for a potential top-20 player - go after Arenado.
