RADIO
Wong Could Have a Breakout Sophomore Campaign
OBP is not a standard category in the majority of fantasy leagues. It is, however, scored in both of my main leagues, and its value in real baseball is well established. Even in standard leagues, looking at OBP and underlying plate discipline metrics is useful, and I tend to give these things fairly significant weight in my valuation of players. So why am I about to tout Kolten Wong and his .292 OBP as a sleeper candidate?
Well, for one thing, I don't think that OBP figure reflects his true talent. His minor league numbers also reflect this. Not only was his 4.8 BB% last year significantly lower than the 8.3% he managed in the minors, he posted a .275 BABIP, which seems pretty low for a guy with his speed and above-average contact rates. Indeed, that's a good 60 points below his minor league mark.
Wong started the season ice-cold, got sent down briefly, then raked when he came back before injuring his shoulder. He tried to play through it, with predictably lousy results that dragged down his overall numbers. Down the stretch, Wong's strikeout rate also ballooned to over 20%. This feels more like noise to me than a significant issue going forward, given his MiLB track record.
What To Expect in 2015
There aren't many guys at the keystone who offer the category juice that Wong does. Even with the ups and down of his rookie year, his 12 homers ranked seventh among all second basemen, and his 20 stolen bases ranked sixth. It's also worth noting that those totals came in only 433 plate appearances, so it's not unreasonable to expect more in a full, healthy season.
Steamer doesn't agree, projecting only 11 HR and 17 SB for Wong in 2015. The SB projection seems especially light to me. Wong is a smart and aggressive baserunner, with an 85% success rate in the big leagues. I'd put him in the 25-30 range, particularly if his OBP rises as much as I expect. A higher OBP would also increase his opportunities for runs scored. Wong reportedly would like to bat leadoff. While it's tough to see a team that employs Matt Carpenter, Jason Heyward, and Jon Jay slotting Wong into the top spot, that would certainly be a welcome development for his fantasy owners.
In Summary
Wong was well-regarded as a prospect and showed a solid all-around skill set as a rookie, even as he struggled with consistency and injury. He has quick hands, surprising pop for his small stature, and the ability to steal bases at a good clip. Wong is already mixed-league relevant and with reasonable improvements in his sophomore season, could be a valuable contributor at a shallow position. His upside is worth chasing late in your draft.
