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Don't Let His Colorado Numbers Fool You: Michael Cuddyer is on the Decline
Only seven players in baseball have posted a wOBA over .400 in the last two seasons: Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Jose Abreu, Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen...and Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer has hit .331/.385/.543 with 30 HR, 106 R, 115 RBI, and 13 SB in 745 PA over that time. Impressive production and impressive company for a guy who cut his teeth as a utility player.
Unfortunately, there's a lot working against him going into 2015. For one thing, Cuddyer signed with the Mets, so now he'll call Citi Field home, rather than Coors. He does have a track record of success in the pitcher-friendly environment in Minnesota, having averaged 20 HR over his final five healthy seasons with the Twins. So maybe leaving Colorado for New York won't completely crater his numbers. The fences are moving in again at Citi, and that should help.
Then again, Cuddyer is entering his age-36 season, and those years with the Twins were during his prime. Coors proved to be a fountain of youth, but it's tough to imagine he won't suffer ill effects from leaving it behind.
You also have to anticipate some simple BABIP regression. Cuddyer's mark over the last two seasons was a whopping .373, 68 points higher than the rest of his career. As you might imagine, there isn't much in his batted ball profile to suggest that he's become the second coming of Ichiro in his mid-thirties.
Health is another area of concern. Cuddyer dealt with a nagging hamstring injury and a broken shoulder last year and played in only 49 games as a result. He hasn't managed 600 plate appearances since 2010, and averaged only 93 games per season in his three years with the Rockies.
It's not all gloom and doom. Despite his injuries last year, Cuddyer produced enough when he was in the lineup to be worth owning in pretty much any format. He's likely to hit in the middle of the Mets' order, flanked by David Wright and Lucas Duda, and he should see a decent number of opportunities to both drive in runs and score them himself.
But there's bound to be someone in your league who looks at his Colorado performance and is willing to bet more than they ought to on a healthy season. And at this point, it's not hard to picture a collapse for this formerly dependable vet.
