RADIO
Reading player analysis, analyzing ADPs, identifying the risers/fallers and potential busts, following the pre-season team outlooks, learning the rookies and putting together your rankings are all key components for your draft strategy. And today we are here to help out with running backs, and making sure your teams are prepared in the critical rounds.
In this article, we look around the NFL and provide analysis on some 2014 fantasy football sleeper running backs. As we make our way through the first three weeks of NFL preseason play, here are some solid running back sleepers to consider on fantasy football draft day. We’ve considered these RBs because of their potential fantasy return, based on your draft-day investment and their current ADPs.
The Importance of Running Backs
If preseason flagging patterns are any indication of what to expect from an officiating standpoint this coming season, then everyone and their mother should be stocking up on wide receivers. The men in stripes are throwing the yellow at anybody even breathing in the direction of a receiver. PPR leagues have never been as exciting. But with that being said, much to the chagrin of the common fantasy football owner, the difference between the top teams versus the teams in the next tier down will be defined by their running backs.
Yup, running backs. Those players who get leveled by monster defenders thirty times a game, who don’t play when their teams are down in the second half, and seem to be injured every three weeks are going to be the difference between getting the opportunity to bathe in your league’s Stanley Cup Trophy and giving up on fantasy football after a 0-8 start.
My advice to you is clear: don’t cheap out on your running backs. Yes, there are always going to be random backs popping up throughout the year as the ballcarriers in front of them go down with injuries. But understand that you’re going to be vying to pickup those second string players and replacement running backs with at least three other owners in your league (not to mention the guy with a countdown clock in his office waiting for the Wednesday waiver wire). Trust me, it’s better to be prepared when disaster strikes. Draft your running backs carefully, and stock up on them.
Now I don’t need to tell you the running backs who will drive the league in 2014. They’ve stayed pretty much the same for most of the last few years, and will continue to do so, as long as Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy stay healthy and are top dogs. If you can get one of these guys early, you’re off to a good start. But it’s the running backs that you’re going to be seeing in the fourth through eighth rounds that’ll top off your draft night - guys that could be great draft values and sleepers for your fantasy teams.
So here are some running backs who may slip down the draft board, further than I would like to see them drafted, but have the potential to breakout and pay huge dividends for your fantasy football teams in 2014.
2014 Fantasy Football Draft Values & Sleepers
Trent Richardson, RB - IND
If you are hesitant on this ‘Bama beast, it is well warranted. Talk to anyone who drafted him last year and you better provide a box of Kleenex to wipe up their tears; Richardson ripped the hearts out of his fantasy football owners in 2013. He’s one of the few guys I ever remember who switched teams midseason, rebuilt the fire around his fantasy value, and then plummeted into obscurity as the season progressed. I mean, he was outgained by Donald Brown. Donald freakin’ Brown.
There's nowhere to go for Richardson at this point, but up. He’s still enormous - I’m pretty sure ESPN did a special on him at ‘Bama where he squatted a Mack Truck or something. And he still runs a sub 4.50 forty-yard dash. He’s poised to catch passes out of the backfield on any check down situation as well. Throw in Andrew Luck’s development, Pep Hamilton’s dedication to keeping a balanced offense in Indy and the fact that Chuck Pagano had a whole offseason to tweak their offense to better suit the former third overall pick - and Trent could potentially run the 2013 season right out of our memories.
Rashad Jennings, RB - NYG
All New York Giants fans know how dangerous their team can be when the running game is clicking. And after a dismal 2013 season, most Big Blue advocates are ready to return to being dangerous. No David Wilson opens the door for Jennings to make a huge and immediate impact this season. Although the Giants O-line is young and has much to prove, clearing the way for the Oakland castoff to a 1,000 yard season will make a lot of haters close their mouths.
Jennings has been on the cusp of fantasy greatness for a couple years now, and comes into a experienced offense that is excited to see what Ben McAdoo can offer from his high flying days in Green Bay. Considering how hard it had been for McAdoo to develop productive backs with the Packer’s, I’m sure he’s drooling over the idea of working with Jennings. Many fans of the G-Men see rookie Andre Williams as the running back of the future and that seems like a great motivating factor for Jennings to prove he is still an every down back.
Zac Stacy, RB - STL
I know, Stacy isn’t really a sleeper considering he’ll be one of the top twelve backs taken in this year's fantasy football drafts. I’m here to tell you that he shouldn’t even slip that far. Stacy was expected to break out during his 2013 rookie season, but failed to impress as the season started. But after he had gotten the wheels turning around Week 5, he lived up to expectations going forward and then some. The man saw 275 touches and almost 1,000 yards in only 14 games last year.
The Rams seem set to finally return to a more victorious way of life this season, leaving no reason to believe Stacy won’t play a huge role in the Ram’s offense. Jeff Fischer has already stated the team will be run oriented while Sam Bradford works his way back from a torn ACL. With the playmaking ability of Tavon Austin on the outside, defenses will not be able to easily key in on the box to stop the run. Throw in the constant threat of Tre Mason as a change of pace back, and there’s no reason Stacy shouldn't be in contention to end the season as a top twenty-something player.
The Vanderbilt product is going to be making these preseason rankings look silly. If you’re toying around at the end of first round and cannot decide who to grab, quietly take Stacy; no one will notice, and it will allow you to wreak havoc on the rest of the draft without anyone realizing it's happening.
Bishop Sankey (TEN), Devonta Freeman (ATL), Terrance West (CLE)
Can you say, rookies (with awesome names)! There’s nothing quite like the potential of an NFL rookie coming in and giving your fantasy team that extra spark. And considering it seems to happen on a yearly basis (i.e. Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin, and/or Alfred Morris), why not again this year?
Now, will all three of these players rush for 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns? Probably not. Is it possible that one of them might? Maybe, but that bar is set pretty dang high. Can one of these players work their way into the top ten of every 2015 fantasy draft? Yeah, it’s possible. These guys all have big upside, and can quickly emerge based on team circumstances.
Sankey has basically been handed the keys to the Titan-mobile already as Shonn Greene stays pouting in his room. Steven Jackson is probably already hurt for the season and could potentially finish the year as a giant pile of dust, which would open the door for Freeman to breakout. And as much as we all want to see Ben Tate leave Arian Foster’s shadow and become Johnny Manziel’s right hand man, it just won’t happen.
ESPN analysts are quick to point out that Tate, since 2010, has hurt his ankle, quad, back, hip, groin, shoulder, head, toe, hamstring, foot, elbow and ribs. Yeah, that’s like his whole body. Expect to be seeing West, a talent who was able to turn a dreadful Towson team into a FBS powerhouse, making productive plays for the Browns as the 2014 season drags on.
To summarize today’s lesson: no matter how pass orientated the NFL will become, fantasy owners need to make sure they have the sufficient running backs to get them through the season. And considering the lower number of available and reliable RBs each year, it’s important to get to them early and often in 2014. These sleepers may be keys to a successful 2014, and may give you what it takes to get your team to the promised land. Of course, they could all be busts as well… but hey, ya gotta love fantasy football.
