RADIO
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In our first 2014 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy article we looked at standard league drafts. In this article we will break down draft strategy for point per reception (PPR) leagues. In a PPR league, strategy can be radically different as receivers can see a huge bump in value, while some running backs can be far less effective.
Early Rounds Strategy (1-4)
In standard drafts running backs will dominate round one. Players like Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch will continue to hold value, but running backs that catch the ball could see a bump in their value. LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte are all viable top 5 picks as they not only get a huge rushing load but also a ton of receptions. Unlike standard drafts, top receiving options such as Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Jimmy Graham and Brandon Marshall are all in the conversation late in round one. As you move into rounds 2 and 3, 100+ reception options like Julian Edelman, Antonio Brown, and Andre Johnson also see huge spikes in value because of the big number of points they will rack up just in receptions. It is still a good idea to come out of the early rounds with at least one if not two running backs, but if you can get a stud wide receiver and tight end you can quickly have a nice advantage over your opponent each week.
Middle Rounds Strategy (5-10)
In contrast to standard drafts where rounds 5-10 can provide great value with receiving options that have fallen, in PPR leagues it is generally running backs and quarterbacks who will fall into these rounds. With receptions being counted heavily, most teams will focus on getting a ton of receiving depth which means players like Fred Jackson, Le’Veon Bell and Ryan Mathews could fall into these rounds as they do not provide nearly the receiving threat as many others. However, running backs are still a scarce commodity meaning building depth in these rounds is critical. Quarterbacks should also go in bunches here as the second tier of stud options should be available. Players such as Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III all figure to be available here and can be great fantasy game changers late. Some receiving options to look at here are Brian Hartline, Cecil Shorts, and Michael Floyd who were all in the top 30 in targets last year with 134, 125 and 112 respectively.
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Late Round Strategy
Late Round StrategyThe late rounds of a PPR draft are times to target players who are on high volume passing teams. Third options on teams such as Denver, New Orleans, Detroit and Philadelphia all provide a ton of upside as injury or bye week plugins. A player like Riley Cooper provides a great example as he rose to prominence in Philadelphia and put up big numbers, including 3+ receptions in 10 of the teams last 11 games. Another receiver to keep an eye on is Doug Baldwin who had 4 games last year with 8+ targets and should see an uptick with Golden Tate now in Detroit. Also, be sure to keep your eye on receiving tight ends such as Timothy Wright who ended last year with 25 targets in his last three games and could fly under the radar with Tampa Bay’s new pickups. With points given per reception, it is smart to wait on taking a defense until much later as outside of the top tier, most team defenses will be outscored by even average receivers and running backs. If you miss out on Seattle or San Francisco, taking a defense in the second to last round could provide your team with a ton of skill depth which should be more helpful as the season wears on.
Top Late Round Sleepers
Top Sleeper RB: Pierre Thomas: It is no secret that the Saints like to throw the ball. With targets like Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and new Eagle Darren Sproles it is easy to see why. However, it would surprise most to know that Thomas actually had 84 targets and hauled in 77 of them for receptions. With Sproles gone, that should only open up more opportunities for Thomas. Although he is not an outstanding rushing option, in a PPR league he can have huge value out of the backfield.
Top Sleeper WR: Jericho Cotchery: Last year Cotchery had a nice revival in Pittsburgh as he had 46 receptions on 76 targets while also gaining 602 yards. Those numbers should see a steady bump this year as he has moved on to a Carolina team that only brings back one of its top four targets from last year in Greg Olsen. Rookie Kelvin Benjamin is a talented player but could struggle early which means Cam Newton will be looking Cotchery’s way a ton.
Top Sleeper TE: Charles Clay: Only 46 players had 100 targets last year; not many would guess that Charles Clay was in that group. The Dolphins tight end finished 2013 with 103 targets along with 69 receptions, 759 yards and an impressive 6 receiving touchdowns. Clay is clearly a favorite of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who should only get better in his third full season under center. Along with getting a ton of targets, Clay is a solid redzone option which makes him a consistent player you can pick up late in drafts.
