X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

RotoBaller.com Rankings: 2013 Outfield Rankings with ADP Comparison

Ryan BraunOutfield is a slightly deceptive position in fantasy baseball, and that may be even more true this year than in years past. Each year, there are lots of real studs at the top, and lots of really solid players on the middle. Naturally, my first reaction was that I can wait to draft a top OF since they’re so deep. But looking back at the past three years, what I actually see each year is an accelerating and consistent drop off as we move down the end-of-season OF ranks. Consider the # of OF ranked, at the end of the year, in each segment of players for 2012, 2011, 2010:

2012 2011 2010 Average
Overall Ranks ... 1-50 16 15 14 15
Overall Ranks . 51-100 19 13 18 ~17
Overall Ranks 101-150 12 9 12 11
Overall Ranks 151-200 8 7 5 ~7
Overall Ranks 201-250 5 7 7 ~6

Get the picture? Each year, the top 30-35 OF can be counted on to be extremely productive players who produce 8th-round value or better while finishing in the top 100 overall. But the paucity of outfielders who've finished 100-250 shows that few players outside the top guys can be counted upon to put up good #’s.

To put it another way: OF is very top-heavy, and if you’re in a league that has 4-5 starting OFs, you can secure significant competitive advantage by ensuring that you have more of the top-heavy guys than your competitors. Let's quickly look at where OF are being drafted this year. Data from Mock Draft Central shows the following:

  • # of OF drafted in top 50: 16
  • # of OF drafted from 51 - 100: 11
  • # of OF drafted from 101 - 150: 15
  • # of OF drafted from 151 - 200: 10
  • # of OF drafted from 201 - 250: 11

Consider where OF usually finish in the rankings, and where they are being drafted this year. The key strategic tidbit is this: too many OF are being drafted in the 101-250 range and not enough from the 51-100 positions, which has historically been the most OF-rich area of the draft. So, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on 3 or 4 top OF in the first 9 rounds of the draft.

One other key piece of OF strategy: you MUST draft a good balance of stats here. If you load up on HR / RBI or R / SB you will be hard-pressed to close the statistical gaps with the rest of your roster positions, and in trying to do so you will be forced into tough choices: do you draft the best player on the board or take the player who will give you more balance? Ideally, you should be able to do both. Don't wind up with Giancarlo Stanton, Jay Bruce AND Adam Dunn, because you won't be able to dig yourself out the AVG and R hole without passing on better players.

Now that you have your OF strategy, let’s dive into the tiers and identify some of the best and worst value plays to target and avoid:


(Looking for more fantasy baseball rankings? Check out our friends at FantasyPros!)

Tier 1: The Elite. I was strongly contemplating putting Braun and Trout in their own tier, but the truth is with just a little regression from either, and a full healthy year from Kemp, these four guys will be on the same level. BUT, you should obviously still take Trout or Braun over Kemp or McCutchen, and I'd take either top OF over Miguel Cabrera for the reasons I highlighted above. Between the two, Trout put up one of the best seasons in the history of baseball as a 20-year-old. Braun is the new Hebrew Hammer and he is unstoppable. Flip a coin.

Tier 2: The Studs. These guys could all be elite this year, but they're nevertheless clearly a rung below the top four right now. Each of these guys is going to put up #1 OF numbers, but each also has some small pockmarks that will hold them back from elite status: Stanton’s horrid lineup and mediocre AVG, Upton's inconsistency, health issues for Bautista, Hamilton and Carlos Gonzalez. Hamilton is an acceptable 2nd-rounder, but brings better value as a 3rd round pick. You can read our full analysis on Hamilton in this Fantasy Draft Prep piece. Stanton is my favorite here-- he could put up 1st-round numbers and is the only player in the MLB capable of hitting 50 HR. I would take him ahead of Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez and Jose Bautista, all of whom are giving you very fair value in the 2nd round. Jones and Heyward are the young guys fresh off breakouts-- they could take further strides this year, and if either slips to the 3rd round in your draft, they are very good picks with room for upside. Matt Holliday is an absolute steal with a 55 ADP; it's shocking that he's going that low, and I would jump on him in the 3rd or 4th round without a second thought. I think at this point in his career, Holliday will be the perennially underrated superstar, kind of like Paul Konerko, who puts up big year after big year, but none monstrous enough to catch too much attention.

Tier 3: Highly Respectable Guys. Here’s where we get into the real meat of the 2013 OF crop. Ideally, you should have two guys within the top 4 tiers, though three would better. Every guy in this tier fits into one of these questions: “Can he repeat career-year performance?”, “Can he bounceback?”, or “Can he consolidate skills growth and break into the next level?” Some of the ADPs are out of control: Gonzalez, Craig and Harper are going too early for my taste considering the first hasn’t topped 30 HR since his 2010 healthy shoulder, the second hasn’t topped 470 AB ever in his career, and the third, though really, really good and young, is being inflated by The Hype Machine. I love B.J. Upton’s 25-35 line, but he's going in the 2nd round!!!! At that price his .240 AVG makes me wanna puke! To achieve 2nd-round value while batting .240, B.J. would need to go 30-35 with 85 RBI and 95 R, capisce? As for the undervalued guys... wow, Hunter Pence has really fallen out of favor. This guy is a PERFECT example of how the hordes lead you astray: in 2011 he has the same year he always does but with a .300 AVG, so in 2012 he gets drafted in the top 30 and... has the same year he always does but with a .250 AVG. So, of course, now he's a bargain. He is a lock for .275-25-85-85-15 and is a steal in the 7th or 8th round. Other nicely priced guys are Austin Jackson around ~100 and Shin-Soo Choo at 80. Gordon, Ellsbury and Cespedes are all nice in the 50-60 range, with Centipede being my favorite, but Ellsbury having the most upside for obvious reasons. Check out RotoBaller's Fantasy Draft Prep article on Cespedes.

Tier 4: Steady as They Go. With very few exceptions, this entire tier is full of solid vets who've been around the block once or twice. All of them should produce like #2-3 OFs, but all of them have some downside due to age, injuries, or over-achievement in 2012. If you're in a 12-team 3-OF league, you probably shouldn't own any starting OF past this tier. I won't touch on every guy, but here are some who might outperform their current ADP: Beltran, Victorino, Ichiro, Hunter, Markakis, Crawford, Cruz and Ethier. Some overvalued guys include: Rios, Melky, Bourn and Trumbo. RotoBaller believes that people always undervalue the vets and this sets up many nice opportunities within the ultra-rich 100-150 range (9th-12th round) of the draft.

Tier 5: #4 and #5 OFs. Outfielders in 40-60 range should occupy the #4 and #5 OF slots in deeper leagues. There's a wide mix of players here, from the solid and unspectacular (Kubel, Swisher, Prado, Hart, Pagan, Crisp), to the players whose breakouts were so unexpected that it seems as if regression is all but guaranteed (Reddick, Aoki, Davis), to the guys we're hoping breakout (Revere, De Aza, Cain), and also the bounceback candidates (Stubbs, Young, and Gardner). By the time these guys are available, I'll have at least 4 OF, so I can afford to gamble a bit, and that means high upside with low ADPs: Morse, Revere, Cuddyer and Kubel could all put up very solid numbers at bargain prices, but the guys I really, really like here are Stubbs, Gardner, Fowler, Cain, Ross and Young. All of these guys can be had near the end of drafts and will offer serious return at their current rates.

Tier 7: The Leftovers. Many of these guys saw significant time on the waiver wire or DL last year, and many of them will again in 2013. Some of them will provide some great hot-stretch stats for a few weeks or months, but it's safe to say you can overlook most of them on draft day without missing out on much that you can't scoop up from the wire when you need to fill a need. That said, there are a few who you should keep an eye on, as I seem them as good bets to put up some solid stretches and end-of-year numbers: Werth, Moss, Duda and Martin.
---------

And if you've missed them, be sure to also check out RotoBaller.com's other pre-season 2013 fantasy baseball positional rankings for more in-depth analysis:

 

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake Mangum15 mins ago

Exits Game With Groin Tightness
Ryan Pressly24 mins ago

Dealing With Knee Issues
George Kittle26 mins ago

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Jac Caglianone27 mins ago

Stays Hot On Wednesday
Tyler Lockett38 mins ago

Joining The Titans
Allan Winans49 mins ago

Strikes Out 10 On Wednesday At Triple-A
50 mins ago

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders1 hour ago

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL1 hour ago

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
Marcelo Mayer1 hour ago

With Two More Multi-Hit Performances Wednesday
New Orleans Saints1 hour ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb1 hour ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens2 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice2 hours ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
2 hours ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson2 hours ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
MLB2 hours ago

Rockies-Royals Rained Out On Wednesday
Zach Eflin2 hours ago

To Throw A Side Session Later This Week
Justin Martinez2 hours ago

"All Indications" Justin Martinez Will Be Available On Wednesday
Zack Wheeler3 hours ago

Records Nine Strikeouts
Jared Jones3 hours ago

To Undergo MRI This Week
Luis Rengifo3 hours ago

Returns On Wednesday
Chandler Simpson3 hours ago

Sitting Out Versus Lefty
Joc Pederson3 hours ago

Taking A Seat Versus Southpaw
Leody Taveras3 hours ago

Sitting Out On Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski4 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis4 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Corey Seager4 hours ago

Goes On 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Michael Porter Jr.5 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings5 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson5 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jonathan Aranda5 hours ago

Sitting Against Southpaw
Jake Fromm5 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Logan O'Hoppe5 hours ago

Out Against Pirates
Seattle Seahawks5 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions5 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell5 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Seiya Suzuki6 hours ago

Scratched On Wednesday With Wrist Soreness
Brandin Podziemski6 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford6 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.6 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum6 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart6 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI7 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha7 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Will Smith7 hours ago

Out With Sore Wrist On Wednesday
Connor Wong7 hours ago

Likely To Go On Rehab Assignment This Weekend
Nikolaj Ehlers7 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Lucas Giolito7 hours ago

Could Make Season Debut Next Thursday
Miro Heiskanen7 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg7 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane7 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog7 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Denver Broncos9 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans9 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons9 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys9 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints9 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
9 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Jaren Jackson Jr.15 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander15 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman15 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam15 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo15 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges15 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA15 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle15 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland15 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić15 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy15 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard15 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale15 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens15 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate16 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard16 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares16 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout16 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen16 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia16 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young16 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov16 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk16 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen16 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli16 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi16 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg16 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane17 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa1 day ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry1 day ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening1 day ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass1 day ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Nikola Jokić2 days ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF