Points Leagues: 1B Fantasy Baseball Values, Fades for 2025 Drafts - Undervalued, Overvalued Picks

Welcome back RotoBallers to our series about fantasy baseball points leagues, focusing on first basemen who are undervalued and overvalued based on fantasy baseball ADPs.

When looking at the first base position in fantasy baseball drafts this season, there aren't as many elite options as in years past. Of course, there are the usual studs who fantasy managers can select early in drafts. Some of those first basemen include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, and Pete Alonso. Outside of those stars, though, there aren't many strong options at the position remaining. Be sure to check out our constantly-updated fantasy baseball points rankings as well.

Therefore, we will look at five basemen going in the middle-to-late rounds and determine whether they are overvalued or undervalued currently in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. The overvalued first basemen should likely be avoided at their ADPs, while the undervalued first basemen are fantastic targets at their respective ADPs. So, let's dive in and take a look at the first base landscape heading into fantasy drafts.

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Christian Walker, Houston Astros

ADP: 75.1

First baseman Christian Walker signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Houston Astros this offseason after spending the last eight seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Walker's landing spot in Houston is a great one for his fantasy value, considering Daikin Park (formerly known as Minute Maid Park) has been known to be hitter-friendly. That's because the left field porch sits at just 315 feet.

As a result, Walker is one of the best first basemen to target at this point in drafts. He has hit at least 30 home runs and driven in at least 94 runs in two of the past three seasons and would have hit those marks last year if it wasn't for an oblique injury that caused him to miss multiple weeks. Still, the 33-year-old hit .251 at the plate with 26 home runs, 26 doubles, and 84 RBI across 130 games.

Christian Walker is projected for 31 HR, 97 RBI, 120 wRC+ and 3.3 fWAR.

That ranks 5th in HR and 5th in fWAR among first baseman projections.

A huge upgrade from 2024. #Astros pic.twitter.com/MrA2rV3K9C

— Astros Future (@AstrosFuture) February 12, 2025

Walker is going to be able to supply fantasy managers with big home runs and RBI numbers this season, which are extremely important in points leagues. Given that he also had a .457 expected slugging, 13.3% barrel rate, and 48% hard-hit rate last season, the veteran still has plenty of power left in his bat.

That all makes him a value pick at his 75.1 ADP, considering RotoBaller has him ranked 45th overall entering the year. 

Verdict: Undervalued 

Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees 

ADP: 77.8

First baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger was traded to the New York Yankees this offseason, and he'll look to be a consistent bat in their lineup this upcoming season. The good news for Bellinger is that he will now be hitting in a ballpark that has a short porch in the right field that sits at just 314 feet. He will also likely have first base and outfield eligibility in most leagues.

The bad news is that Bellinger might not be worth his preseason ADP. He has hit under 20 home runs in three of the past four seasons, and his batting average dropped 41 points from the 2023 season to 2024. Last year, the left-handed hitter batted .261 at the plate with 18 home runs, 23 doubles, 78 RBI, and nine stolen bases across 130 games.

Bellinger doesn't put up huge numbers in any one category to make him a top-80 pick in points leagues. On top of that, his .242 expected batting average, 32.9% hard-hit rate, and 6.3% barrel rate from last season suggest he probably won't put up much different stats this year. 

Therefore, Bellinger is going a little too high currently in fantasy baseball points leagues. I'd prefer Walker at this point in drafts, especially since the Astros first baseman will hit more home runs, more doubles, and bring in more runs in 2025. RotoBaller has the Yankees first baseman/outfielder ranked 127th in points leagues.

Verdict: Overvalued

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 88.2

Cincinnati Reds first baseman Spencer Steer did some nice things at the plate last season. He hit 20 home runs, 34 doubles, and 92 RBI. Steer also stole a career-high 25 bases behind his 28.2 ft/sec sprint speed. However, fantasy managers should think twice about selecting the 27-year-old at his 88.2 ADP. 

For starters, Steer hit just .225 at the plate last year, and things might not get better for him in 2025. His expected batting average (.235), expected slugging (.379), barrel rate (6.4%), and hard-hit rate (39.9%) all ranked in the bottom 34% of the league. If those metrics continue for him this upcoming season, the Reds first baseman could be hard to trust in fantasy each week. 

Steer is also dealing with some shoulder soreness that could limit his at-bats in the spring. With all that in mind, the Reds' first baseman is going a bit too early in points leagues. He might be a fine roto player at this point in drafts because he does have the potential for a 20/20 season. But he struggled at the plate for most of the year in 2024 and likely won't hit 25-plus home runs this season.

Reds IF/OF Spencer Steer is still recovering from the shoulder soreness he dealt with late last season and likely will DH as spring games start up, eventually working up to getting in the field.

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubMLB) February 11, 2025

RotoBaller also has him ranked 134th overall in points leagues, which is a 46-spot difference from his current ADP.

Verdict: Overvalued

Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 105.7

There is a lot to love about Kansas City Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino in fantasy entering the year. He is coming off a season in which he hit 19 home runs, 30 doubles, and 97 RBI across 131 games, and those numbers should have been even better in 2024.

If Pasquantino didn't miss the final month of the season due to a broken thumb, we are looking at a 22-plus home run, 35-plus double, and 100-plus RBI season. 

Pasquantino's metrics also suggest that this is just the start of a nice career for him. His expected batting average (.266), expected slugging (.438), hard-hit rate (46.5%), and squared-up rate (31.7%) all ranked in the top half of the league in 2024. As a result, he is a great value pick in points leagues this upcoming season. 

Fun Fact: #Royals Vinnie Pasquantino was the only player in 2024 (min 100 AB) to have at least a 50% hard hit rate and 90% contact rate on pitches in the zone

Stat via @JonPgh MLB leaderboard pic.twitter.com/dIEreRTP4F

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) January 3, 2025

The left-handed slugger gets to hit behind Bobby Witt Jr. every game, which means a 100-plus RBI season is surely attainable for Pasquantino. He can also post solid numbers in the home run, doubles, and hits department. That should all help him finish as a strong first-base option in points leagues in 2025. RotoBaller has him currently ranked 60th overall. 

Verdict: Undervalued 

Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 279

This could be the year that we see Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch take that next step at the plate. In his first full season in the majors, Busch hit .248 with 21 home runs, 28 doubles, and 65 RBI across 152 games. Those are pretty good stats for a player who really didn't have any major league experience entering the year. 

In his second full season, fantasy managers should see Busch put up even better stats. He could hit 25-plus homers in 2025 to go with upward of 70 RBI and 30 doubles. Those are on par with Nick Mariano's CUTTER projections, as RotoBaller's own has him projected for 24 home runs and 77 RBI behind a .244 batting average. 

That makes him extremely undervalued currently in points league drafts. He could take that Year 2 leap in 2025, and his metrics from his rookie season were very solid. His barrel rate (11.2%), launch angle sweet-spot rate (36.4%), chase rate (23.2%), and walk rate (11.1%) all ranked in the top 25% of the league. RotoBaller has the Cubs first baseman ranked 102 spots higher (177) than his 279 ADP.

Now, the signing of Justin Turner could hurt Busch’s fantasy value a bit. Turner has always hit left-handed pitching well, and the young first baseman only hit one home run across 100 plate appearances against left-handed pitching last year. So, there could be some sort of platoon swap between the two players. Still, Busch should start the majority of games for the Cubs while continuing to show his upside in that lineup.

Verdict: Undervalued 

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