Finding Over/Undervalued First Basemen Using Expected Draft Values

Welcome back for another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We'll start at first base and make our way around the diamond to begin the 2022 exercise.

Today, we'll look at three first basemen and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning February into March (94 drafts), their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.

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How Expected Draft Values Help You Win Your League

It may be clear by this point already, but if you know the expected break-even stat-line of every draft slot, you can identify which of your draft picks are projected to return positive or negative value. Below, we look at five power bats that are either over or undervalued based on their recent NFBC Online ADP, our RotoBaller projections, and Expected Draft Values.

Without further ado, here are some players that stand out at their current cost in 2022 drafts.

Pete Alonso (1B, NYM)

NFBC DC ADP: 59
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 59th: .262 BA, 34 HR, 87 runs, 101 RBI, 2 SB
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .258-40-87-109-2

Analysis: Alonso was overdrafted going into 2020 (mid-40s) and the market largely corrected in 2021, seeing him drift back towards the 50s. But now the Big Apple slugger is nearing pick 60, which is too low for a man with proven 50-homer pop that just had 37 longballs in 637 PAs in ‘21. With some (alleged) baseball correction, I doubt the 53-homer bouncyball lifestyle comes back, but most projections call for a 40-homer season.

We do too, which goes hand-in-hand with a cushy cleanup slot to meet R+RBI expectations and generate profits. Having on-base machine Brandon Nimmo up top alongside an elite hitter in Starling Marte will set the table well for Alonso’s feast. That Francisco Lindor is no slouch either. There is room for 110+ RBI here.

It’s worth mentioning that Alonso’s projections also present a tighter band (read: safer) given last year’s plate discipline growth. The slugger dropped a 25.5% strikeout rate from ‘20 (26.4% in ‘19) to 19.9% in ‘21, all while maintaining a similar fly-ball rate and increasing his Statcast hard-hit rate by roughly five percentage points. He showed sizeable gains against changeups, posting a 22.3% whiff rate (30.9% in ‘19, 46% in short ‘20) and 15.8% PutAway rate (24.7%, 35%) per BaseballSavant.

All told, this is promising for a steadfast stream of production despite the new ball in a pitcher-friendly park. Citi Field can put the squeeze on hitters, but we aren’t adjusting Alonso to new digs, he’s already thrived here. Mix Starling Marte into the lineup, add a DH with Robinson Cano and Dominic Smith behind him, and I am very in at this price point.

Verdict: Target, Alonso is undervalued at his current draft slot

Ryan Mountcastle (1B, BAL)

NFBC DC ADP: 118
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 118th: .259-30-78-80-3
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .263-28-79-85-4

Analysis: This is an evolving market, but the Camden wall shift news dropped on January 12. Even taking ADP from Jan. 18 on, Mountcastle is still treading water at a position where it’s very difficult to draw negative. That’s why we’re still painting him as slightly overvalued despite the batting average bump against EDV. Many early-to-mid 1B options can do that and give you power above EDV, but Mountcastle may struggle to cross 30 homers again in 2022. Even as we grew into February-March data, his ADP is holding rather steady around the 115-120 range.

The impressive youngster dazzled in 2020, logging five homers and a .398 BABIP in 140 PAs for Baltimore. Personally, I delighted in the 32-36-32 pull-center-oppo rates for his batted balls, but his minor-league profile has always been the 40%+ pull guy. That came out with a greater sample size in ‘21 with a 40-32-28 split instead. His fly-ball rate also settled at 42.6%, which helped lead a .297 BABIP back down off of the mountain. Playing in Camden with a reliance on pulled fly balls as a right-handed bat may prove troublesome, though.

Recalculated the Camden Yards home runs lost due to fence changes with the errors in the data fixed and fresh eyes. 38.7% to 52.9% of homers are erased in left field. That is 11.66 to 18.04% homers lost park wide. In other words, the numbers barely changed.

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) January 19, 2022

A player’s first full season does not define them for life, of course, but what we’ve seen so far also shows a greater reliance on the home runs for value. His 33 HRs in ‘21 were electric, but 22 of them came at Camden and behind that we had a 27.5% strikeout rate, 16.2% swinging-strike rate (identical to ‘20), and a 79.8% Zone-Contact rate that ranked 120th out of 135 hitters with at least 500 PAs.

But that can work! Names around him there include Giancarlo Stanton, Fernando Tatis Jr., Bryce Harper, and so on. As always, no one stat can tell a story. On top of that bigger swing that doesn’t connect as often, Mountcastle had a 41.5% O-Swing rate. Those other names didn’t have a rate higher than 33.3%. This is not a death blow, and Mountcastle is still a good player with room to grow, but you take someone who swings big and misses big and cull the swing-big potential then you thin out the paths to profit. There are better options going later.

Verdict: Pass, Mountcastle is slightly overvalued at his current draft slot

Rhys Hoskins (1B, PHI)

NFBC DC ADP: 135
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 135th:.253-31-75-81-3
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .244-33-82-89-4

Analysis: Hoskins is coming off of core surgery to repair an abdominal injury that took him out of commission last August, which stunk for us (and him!) but leaves plenty of recovery time heading into 2022. This isn’t a terribly exciting angle, as his modest ADP reflects a perpetual injury risk. Hoskins will be 29 years old whenever the 2022 season begins and has been hurt in both 2020 and ‘21.

But when on the field last year, Hoskins clobbered 27 home runs with 135 R+RBI in just 107 games (443 PAs). He clubbed another 10 round-trippers in just 41 games (185 PAs) in ‘20 as well. We won’t get carried away, but 37 HRs in his last 148 games makes for a nice range. That said, mixing in the same lesser bounce that can befall Mountcastle must be brought up for Rhys and his usual fly-ball rate north of 50%.

Unlike Mountcastle, who posted a 7.7% Barrel/PA rate and 92.5 MPH average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, Hoskins should make do with any ball on the back of last year’s 10.8% Barrel/PA rate and 95.8 MPH FB/LD average exit velocity. That Brl/PA rate was 10th-highest out of 261 hitters with at least 200 batted-ball events. And perhaps as the DH comes to the NL, the Phillies can remedy two worries at once by having Hoskins DH and getting Alec Bohm's glove out of the hot corner and over to first. We shall see.

So if most of the discourse boils down to his health, then I’ll present the same argument that I trot out for Brandon Belt and the like: Replacement Value at 1B/CI is high. In most formats, you should take the injury discount for first base. Jesus Aguilar and Rowdy Tellez are going near pick 300. Christian Walker is damn near undrafted. Others will rise throughout the season (Edwin Rios??). All risk is not created equal.

Verdict: Target, Hoskins is undervalued at his current draft slot

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