X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

10 Questions To Ask: PGA Betting, DFS Picks - Golf Bets Research - Pebble Beach Pro-AM

Matt Kuchar - PGA DFS Lineup Picks, Daily Fantasy Golf

Max Homa is now one of the best players on tour and continues to show what he is capable of when he finds himself with a sniff of the lead. An incredible performance once again from the blossoming superstar.

We are going to ask a few questions that will guide us through a multitude of areas that impact how we go about handicapping an event. We look at historical odds of winners, traditional weather, skills that matter, and a few more interesting things. The goal of this article is to provide you with a high-level understanding of the nuances associated with this week's course and players.

I am a proud member of the RotoBaller team and put out a bunch of articles and podcasts each week that includes a more detailed research article, as well as DFS and betting articles that are intended to make your weekly golf experience that much more enjoyable. They are a combination of free and premium articles, with our premium package providing all the tools, articles, and discords you could wish for (code: "maniac" for 10% off). You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

#1. Dogs or Dimes?

Were the odds of the last few winners closer to a dime or were the underdogs sniffing around the top of the leaderboard?

The odds of the last three winners were a mix of long shots and a semi-favorite at 14, 50, and 85-1.

Favorites have sniffed around the top of the board over the last three years.

Finishing positions of the golfers with the shortest odds to win:

 

#2. History or Mystery?

Is course history a strong predictor of success or is this week going to be a mystery?

Course history is pretty high on Pebble Beach GL and Spyglass Hill, which both play much tougher than Monterey Peninsula, which has the smallest predictive power of the three.

These are the golfers with the best average strokes gained (min six rounds):

These are the golfers with the worst average strokes gained (min six rounds):

 

#3. Birdies or Bogeys?

What kind of scoring conditions can we expect this week?

The last five winners of this event shot -19, -18, -19, -19, and -17.

The best strokes gained average on easy courses:

The worst strokes gained average on easy courses:

#4. Weak or Peak?

Is the strength of the field at its peak or is it weak?

The total Official World Golf Ranking points total for this week's field is 106.43. Last week's total OWGR in a 156-man field was 150.88. Pink = 2023 season, Green = 75% 2022 + 25% 2023 season.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushed it in 2023!

 

#5. AM or PM?

What is the weather usually like at this event?

Does not seem to get much warmer than 55 degrees this week.

 

#6. Distance or Direction?

Is distance or direction the most important stat off the tee?

Pebble Beach demands accuracy off the tee.

The best Strokes Gained off the tee in the field:

The golfers with the most accuracy off the tee:

The golfers with the best proximity numbers are from 225-250. Golfers will use these clubs to lay up on certain holes. Sean O'Hair has very limited rounds so take his data with a pinch of salt.

 

#7. Wedges or Woods?

Which proximity buckets are going to see the most divots this week?

A third of approach shots come from 100-150 yards.

These are the golfers that rate out the best when taking the above proximity buckets and prorating them:

 

#8. Sand or Grandstand?

Are errant approach shots going to land up in the sand or grandstands?

Pebble Beach has 116 total bunkers, Spyglass has 62, and Monterey Peninsula has 130. With greens much smaller than the tour average and green-in-regulation percentages inevitably lower, the short game is going to be essential.

These are the golfers who excel out the rough:

 

These are the golfers who excel out the sand:

 

#9. Bermuda or Bent?

Are we putting on Bermuda or Bentgrass?

Neither. We are putting on Poa and these are the best putters on Poa over the last 50 rounds:

The worst putters on Bermuda over the last 50 (Hall, An, Grant, and Davis Thompson have all only had a handful of rounds on Poa):

 

#10. Model or Maniac

Are there golfers who the model is not liking as much as the Maniac?

Below are the top 10 golfers in my model:

These are a few golfers who the Maniac likes, who the model overlooked a little:

 

Bonus Bingo Card

This bingo card is for those of you who want to watch a bunch of content and golf coverage. There is a good chance one of these replays, words, players, or narratives are brought up in the next week. If you want a Google Sheets version to update as you go through the week, click here. You will just have to make your own copy of the doc.

Hopefully, this helped you prepare for the odds dropping tomorrow morning! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Josh Rojas11 mins ago

Exits Early On Saturday
NFL18 mins ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Thairo Estrada18 mins ago

Removed From Saturday's Contest
Damian Lillard25 mins ago

Available Versus Indiana
Parris Campbell25 mins ago

Headed To Dallas
Nick Kurtz27 mins ago

Exits After HBP
Giannis Antetokounmpo29 mins ago

Good To Go On Saturday
Jamal Murray35 mins ago

Added To Saturday's Injury Report
Jiri Kulich36 mins ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tobias Myers37 mins ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Brice Turang45 mins ago

Dealing With Shoulder Fatigue
Tyler Myers46 mins ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Nikita Kucherov56 mins ago

Good To Go Against Bruins
Yegor Chinakhov1 hour ago

Rejoins Blue Jackets Lineup Saturday
Cole Anthony1 hour ago

Back On The Injury Report
Joel Armia1 hour ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Brady Tkachuk1 hour ago

Available Saturday
Donovan Mitchell1 hour ago

Questionable Against Orlando
Adam Fox1 hour ago

Ready To Rejoin Rangers Lineup
Andre Drummond2 hours ago

Out Against Dallas
Ja Morant2 hours ago

Questionable On Saturday Night
P.J. Washington2 hours ago

Returning On Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles4 hours ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Dante Exum5 hours ago

Diagnosed With A Fractured Left Hand
Los Angeles Rams5 hours ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Amed Rosario5 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Cam Thomas5 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of The Season
Jose Trevino5 hours ago

Going For CT Scan
Kirk Cousins5 hours ago

Set To Receive Roster Bonus
Bryce Eldridge5 hours ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Aaron Rodgers5 hours ago

Wants To Play In Minnesota
Blake Perkins5 hours ago

Cleared For Light Baseball Activities
Doug Nikhazy6 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jung Hoo Lee6 hours ago

Scratched On Saturday With Back Tightness
Cody Bradford6 hours ago

Won't Throw For At Least Four Weeks
Colorado Rockies6 hours ago

Charlie Condon Out At Least Six Weeks With Broken Wrist
Bryce Miller6 hours ago

Ironing Out The Kinks In Spring Training
Logan Gilbert6 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Mookie Betts6 hours ago

Missing Tokyo Exhibition Games Due To Illness
Jesús Sánchez6 hours ago

Jesus Sanchez To Miss Four Weeks With Oblique Strain
Jon Gray7 hours ago

Has A Fractured Right Wrist
Bobby Witt Jr.7 hours ago

Back In Cactus League Lineup On Saturday
Washington Commanders7 hours ago

Clelin Ferrell Returning To Washington
New York Jets7 hours ago

Kris Boyd Signs With The Jets
Garrett Crochet7 hours ago

Starting On Opening Day
Nick Castellanos7 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Los Angeles Chargers7 hours ago

Mekhi Becton Inks Deal With Chargers
Tyler Johnson7 hours ago

Links Up With Jets
Kyle Juszczyk8 hours ago

Returns To 49ers
Eeli Tolvanen12 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
WPG12 hours ago

Kyle Connor Strikes Twice On Friday
Jack Roslovic12 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Friday's Victory
Leon Draisaitl12 hours ago

Leads Edmonton To Victory
Liam O'Brien12 hours ago

Exits With Undisclosed Injury
Josh Manson13 hours ago

Exits On Friday
Kevin Porter Jr.21 hours ago

Expected To Be Available Saturday
Atlanta Falcons21 hours ago

Falcons Agree To Terms With Morgan Fox
Damian Lillard21 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Saturday's Game
Giannis Antetokounmpo21 hours ago

Probable For Saturday
Lonzo Ball21 hours ago

Remains Out For Saturday
Indianapolis Colts21 hours ago

Colts Sign Corey Ballentine To One-Year Deal On Friday
Trendon Watford21 hours ago

Will Miss Saturday's Game
Chet Holmgren21 hours ago

Resting Versus Detroit
Nicolas Claxton21 hours ago

Resting On Saturday
Pittsburgh Steelers22 hours ago

Brandin Echols Signs Two-Year Deal With Steelers
Josh Giddey22 hours ago

Not Likely To Play Saturday
Noah Clowney22 hours ago

To Remain Out Against Celtics
Kenny Yeboah22 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Avery Williams22 hours ago

Signs With Eagles
Cam Thomas22 hours ago

Sits Out First Leg Of Back-To-Back Saturday
Jalen Williams22 hours ago

Still Out On Saturday
Kene Nwangwu22 hours ago

Jets Re-Sign Kene Nwangwu To One-Year Deal
Simi Fehoko1 day ago

Signing With Cardinals
Kylen Granson1 day ago

Headed To Philadelphia
Sterling Shepard1 day ago

Remaining With Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals1 day ago

Bengals Not Ruling Out Trey Hendrickson Extension
Karel Vejmelka1 day ago

Makes Ninth Consecutive Start Friday
Dustin Wolf1 day ago

Set To Face Avalanche Friday
Mikael Backlund1 day ago

Out Week-To-Week
Sam Colangelo1 day ago

Deemed Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Michael Bunting1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Andrei Svechnikov1 day ago

Expected To Return Next Week
Nikolaj Ehlers1 day ago

Good To Go Against Stars
Mackenzie Blackwood1 day ago

Battling Illness, Not Starting On Friday
Roman Dolidze1 day ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori1 day ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani1 day ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos1 day ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh1 day ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez1 day ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson1 day ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay2 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA2 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos2 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman3 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard3 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips3 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler3 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter3 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa4 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre4 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young4 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim4 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas4 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele4 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy4 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA4 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman4 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee4 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Power-Steering Failure Foils Tyler Reddick's Bid For Potential Victory
William Byron5 days ago

Recovers From Being Trapped A Lap Down To Finish Sixth
Josh Berry5 days ago

Gives Wood Brothers Team Best Run Since 2021
Alex Pereira5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 313
Magomed Ankalaev5 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion
Justin Gaethje5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Rafael Fiziev5 days ago

Loses Third Fight In A Row
Ignacio Bahamondes5 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 313
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Scores His Third Consecutive Victory Of The Season At Phoenix
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Strong Phoenix Performance Falls Short Of Victory
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Quietly Earns A Top-Five Finish At Phoenix
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Leaves Phoenix With His Best Finish At The Site Since 2016
Zane Smith5 days ago

Quietly Nabs His First Phoenix Top-10 Finish
Jalin Turner5 days ago

Retires After UFC 313 Loss
Iasmin Lucindo5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 313
Amanda Lemos5 days ago

Dominates At UFC 313
King Green5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC 313
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF