X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

10 Questions To Ask -PGA Betting, DFS Picks - Golf Bets Research - The American Express

As the Waialae weekend comes to an end, the majority of the betting world will be licking their wounds, as Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, and a few other very popular names missed the cut in Hawaii. Si Woo Kim played some heroic golf down the stretch, chipping in on the 17th and then hitting a fantastic approach shot on the 18th hole out of a fairway bunker to set up an easy two-putt birdie.

Next up is the American Express, where we will see a lot of big names showing up to an event they typically skip. We are going to ask a few questions that will guide us through a multitude of areas that impact how we go about handicapping an event. We look at historical odds of winners, traditional weather, skills that matter, and a few more interesting things. The goal of this article is to provide you with a high-level understanding of the nuances associated with this week's course and players.

I am a proud member of the RotoBaller team and put out a bunch of articles and podcasts each week that includes a more detailed research article, as well as DFS and betting articles that are intended to make your weekly golf experience that much more enjoyable. They are a combination of free and premium articles, with our premium package providing all the tools, articles, and discords you could wish for (code: "maniac" for 10% off). You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

#1. Dogs or Dimes?

Were the odds of the last few winners closer to a dime or were the underdogs sniffing around the top of the leaderboard?

The odds of the last three winners were all long shots at 55, 200, and 250-1.

Long shots have sniffed around the top of the board over the last three years.

  

Finishing positions of the golfers with the shortest odds to win:

 

#2. History or Mystery?

Is course history a strong predictor of success or is this week going to be a mystery?

Course history is not particularly that big of a predictor of success in either of the three courses we will see this week. Yes, we are playing three different courses before the cut, while mixing in amateurs who can land up giving the pros reads on putts if their ball is nearby. Talk about one of the more mysterious events on tour.

These are the golfers with the best average strokes gained (min six rounds):

These are the golfers with the worst average strokes gained (min six rounds):

 

#3. Birdies or Bogeys?

What kind of scoring conditions can we expect this week?

The last five winners of this event shot -23, -23, -26, -26, and -22. We have ourselves a birdie fest, folks. The top five golfers at Waialae Country Club have averaged 5.5 strokes under par per round, which my model considers easy scoring conditions. La Quinta CC has typically played the easiest of the three at -6.35, Nickalus (-5.52), and Stadium Course (-4.85). These sample sizes are rather small, so bear that in mind.

The best strokes gained average on easy courses:

The worst strokes gained average on easy courses:

#4. Weak or Peak?

Is the strength of the field at its peak or is it weak?

The total Official World Golf Ranking points total for this week's 156-man field was 171.93. Last week's total OWGR in a 144-man Sony field was 138.72. This tournament sees a significant increase in star power compared to prior years.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushed it in 2023!

 

#5. AM or PM?

What is the weather usually like at this event?

Historically, the weather in La Quinta, California does not get much warmer than 70 degrees and wind remains rather timid at this time of the year.

 

#6. Distance or Direction?

Is distance or direction the most important stat off the tee?

The American Express and its three different courses are statistically more favorable to those that are accurate off the tee.

The most accurate golfers on the field:

The best Strokes Gained off the tee on the field:

 

#7. Wedges or Woods?

Which proximity buckets are going to see the most divots this week?

I theoretically manufactured the proximity buckets on the other two courses to try to get a feel for the average across all rounds. It looks like 150-175 yards will be a very popular range this week.

These are the golfers that rate out the best when taking the above proximity buckets and prorating them to weigh 150-175 for 26% of the weighing, for example.

 

#8. Sand or Grandstand?

Are errant approach shots going to land up in the sand or grandstands?

This course has one of the easier scrambling percentages on tour. These are the best golfers around the green:

These are the golfers who struggle around the green:

 

 

#9. Bermuda or Bent?

Are we putting on Bermuda or Bentgrass?

These are the best putters on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds:

The worst putters on Bermuda over the last 50:

 

#10. Model or Maniac

Are there golfers who the model is not liking as much as the Maniac?

Below are the top 10 golfers in my model:

These are a few golfers who the Maniac likes, who the model overlooked a little:

Hopefully, this helped you prepare for the odds dropping tomorrow morning! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NFL33 mins ago

Ben Cleveland Remaining With Ravens
NFL49 mins ago

Shemar Jean-Charles Signing With Seahawks
Velus Jones Jr.60 mins ago

Signs With Saints
Colby Thomas2 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Colby Thomas
Brock Stewart2 hours ago

Exits With Knee Injury
Evan Sisk2 hours ago

Optioned to Triple-A
Will Benson2 hours ago

Sent To Triple-A
Bryan Shaw3 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Mookie Betts3 hours ago

Could Miss Tokyo Series
Quinton Byfield3 hours ago

Scores In Sixth-Straight Contest
Chase Elliott3 hours ago

May Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Las Vegas Lineups
Artemi Panarin3 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Eight Games
Pyotr Kochetkov3 hours ago

Shuts The Door On Saturday
William Byron3 hours ago

Expect William Byron To Compete For The Win At Las Vegas
Tyler Reddick3 hours ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Las Vegas
Anthony Cirelli3 hours ago

Strikes Twice On Saturday
Denny Hamlin3 hours ago

Could Denny Hamlin Be A Quality Driver For DFS At Las Vegas?
Alex Ovechkin3 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Connor Dewar3 hours ago

Scores Twice On Saturday
NASCAR3 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Could Be A Solid DFS Option For Las Vegas
Brad Keselowski4 hours ago

Qualifies Deep In The Field For Las Vegas
Erik Jones4 hours ago

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering At Las Vegas This Week?
Daniel Suarez4 hours ago

Should Fantasy Players Roster Daniel Suarez At Las Vegas?
Carson Hocevar4 hours ago

Showcases Speed And Can Be Worth Rostering At Las Vegas
Ryan Preece4 hours ago

Is Ryan Preece A DFS Fade For Las Vegas Lineups?
Joey Logano5 hours ago

Likely to Lead at Las Vegas, but Will He Lead Enough for DFS Consideration?
Michael McDowell5 hours ago

Wins Spire Motorsports's First Pole at Las Vegas
Austin Cindric5 hours ago

Qualified Third, but Almost Guaranteed to Lose Spots
Chase Briscoe5 hours ago

Las Vegas Performance Hard to Predict
Ty Gibbs5 hours ago

a Solid DFS Option in Theory, but Disastrous Recent Performance Likely Overrides That
Shane Van Gisbergen5 hours ago

Too Inexperienced at Las Vegas for DFS Consideration Despite Trackhouse Speed
Noah Gragson5 hours ago

Finished Well at Las Vegas Last Year, but Ran Worse
Austin Dillon5 hours ago

Decent at Las Vegas, but Not Worthy of DFS Play
Josh Berry5 hours ago

Poor Intermediate Record Likely to Override Strong Qualifying Result
Justin Haley5 hours ago

Spire Speed Suggests Justin Haley Is a Strong DFS Option
Cole Custer5 hours ago

Could be Valuable If Haas Has Intermediate Speed
Mitch Garver11 hours ago

Goes Hitless In Return To Cactus League Action
Austin Riley11 hours ago

Doubles In Return To Lineup On Saturday
Jordan Mason12 hours ago

Vikings Acquire Jordan Mason From 49ers, Sign Him To Two-Year Deal
RJ Barrett13 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Sunday
Immanuel Quickley13 hours ago

Won't Play On Sunday
Jerami Grant13 hours ago

Unlikely To Play On Sunday
Marcus Smart13 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Anfernee Simons13 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Sunday
Christian Braun14 hours ago

Available On Saturday
Aaron Gordon14 hours ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Jamal Murray14 hours ago

Will Play On Saturday Night
Nikola Jokić14 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Cleared To Suit Up Versus The Wizards
Colby Thomas15 hours ago

Sustains Injury On Saturday
Dee Eskridge15 hours ago

Sticking With Dolphins
Josh Giddey15 hours ago

Officially Out On Saturday Night
Ja Morant15 hours ago

Ruled Out On Saturday Night
JuJu Smith-Schuster15 hours ago

Returning To Chiefs
Josh Rojas15 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Tennessee Titans15 hours ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Thairo Estrada15 hours ago

Removed From Saturday's Contest
Damian Lillard15 hours ago

Available Versus Indiana
Parris Campbell15 hours ago

Headed To Dallas
Nick Kurtz15 hours ago

Exits After Hit-By-Pitch
Giannis Antetokounmpo15 hours ago

Good To Go On Saturday
Jamal Murray15 hours ago

Added To Saturday's Injury Report
Jiri Kulich15 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tobias Myers15 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Brice Turang16 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Fatigue
Tyler Myers16 hours ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Nikita Kucherov16 hours ago

Good To Go Against Bruins
Yegor Chinakhov16 hours ago

Rejoins Blue Jackets Lineup Saturday
Cole Anthony16 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Joel Armia16 hours ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Brady Tkachuk16 hours ago

Available Saturday
Donovan Mitchell16 hours ago

Questionable Against Orlando
Adam Fox16 hours ago

Ready To Rejoin Rangers Lineup
Andre Drummond16 hours ago

Out Against Dallas
Ja Morant16 hours ago

Questionable On Saturday Night
P.J. Washington17 hours ago

Returning On Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles19 hours ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Dante Exum19 hours ago

Diagnosed With A Fractured Left Hand
Los Angeles Rams20 hours ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Amed Rosario20 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Cam Thomas20 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of The Season
Jose Trevino20 hours ago

Going For CT Scan
Kirk Cousins20 hours ago

Set To Receive Roster Bonus
Bryce Eldridge20 hours ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Aaron Rodgers20 hours ago

Wants To Play In Minnesota
Blake Perkins20 hours ago

Cleared For Light Baseball Activities
Doug Nikhazy20 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jung Hoo Lee20 hours ago

Scratched On Saturday With Back Tightness
Cody Bradford20 hours ago

Won't Throw For At Least Four Weeks
Washington Commanders21 hours ago

Clelin Ferrell Returning To Washington
New York Jets22 hours ago

Kris Boyd Signs With The Jets
Los Angeles Chargers22 hours ago

Mekhi Becton Inks Deal With Chargers
Tyler Johnson22 hours ago

Links Up With Jets
Kyle Juszczyk23 hours ago

Returns To 49ers
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Scores Twice In Victory
WPG1 day ago

Kyle Connor Strikes Twice On Friday
Jack Roslovic1 day ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Friday's Victory
Leon Draisaitl1 day ago

Leads Edmonton To Victory
Liam O'Brien1 day ago

Exits With Undisclosed Injury
Josh Manson1 day ago

Exits On Friday
Atlanta Falcons1 day ago

Falcons Agree To Terms With Morgan Fox
Indianapolis Colts2 days ago

Colts Sign Corey Ballentine To One-Year Deal On Friday
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Brandin Echols Signs Two-Year Deal With Steelers
Kenny Yeboah2 days ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Karel Vejmelka2 days ago

Makes Ninth Consecutive Start Friday
Dustin Wolf2 days ago

Set To Face Avalanche Friday
Roman Dolidze2 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani2 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos2 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez2 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson2 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay2 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA2 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos2 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman4 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard4 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips4 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith4 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick4 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler4 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter4 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy4 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa4 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre4 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young4 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim4 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele5 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy5 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA5 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman5 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee5 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
Alex Pereira6 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 313
Magomed Ankalaev6 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion
Justin Gaethje6 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF