RADIO
Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) provides premium PGA player profile breakdowns for many of the golfers playing in this week's The American Express.
As the Waialae weekend comes to an end, the majority of the betting world will be licking their wounds, as Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, and a few other very popular names missed the cut in Hawaii. Si Woo Kim played some heroic golf down the stretch, chipping in on the 17th and then hitting a fantastic approach shot on the 18th hole out of a fairway bunker to set up an easy two-putt birdie.
Next up is the American Express, where we will see a lot of big names showing up to an event they typically skip. We are going to ask a few questions that will guide us through a multitude of areas that impact how we go about handicapping an event. We look at historical odds of winners, traditional weather, skills that matter, and a few more interesting things. The goal of this article is to provide you with a high-level understanding of the nuances associated with this week's course and players.
I am a proud member of the RotoBaller team and put out a bunch of articles and podcasts each week that includes a more detailed research article, as well as DFS and betting articles that are intended to make your weekly golf experience that much more enjoyable. They are a combination of free and premium articles, with our premium package providing all the tools, articles, and discords you could wish for (code: "maniac" for 10% off). You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
#1. Dogs or Dimes?
Were the odds of the last few winners closer to a dime or were the underdogs sniffing around the top of the leaderboard?
The odds of the last three winners were all long shots at 55, 200, and 250-1.
Long shots have sniffed around the top of the board over the last three years.
Finishing positions of the golfers with the shortest odds to win:
#2. History or Mystery?
Is course history a strong predictor of success or is this week going to be a mystery?
Course history is not particularly that big of a predictor of success in either of the three courses we will see this week. Yes, we are playing three different courses before the cut, while mixing in amateurs who can land up giving the pros reads on putts if their ball is nearby. Talk about one of the more mysterious events on tour.
These are the golfers with the best average strokes gained (min six rounds):
These are the golfers with the worst average strokes gained (min six rounds):
#3. Birdies or Bogeys?
What kind of scoring conditions can we expect this week?
The last five winners of this event shot -23, -23, -26, -26, and -22. We have ourselves a birdie fest, folks. The top five golfers at Waialae Country Club have averaged 5.5 strokes under par per round, which my model considers easy scoring conditions. La Quinta CC has typically played the easiest of the three at -6.35, Nickalus (-5.52), and Stadium Course (-4.85). These sample sizes are rather small, so bear that in mind.
The best strokes gained average on easy courses:
The worst strokes gained average on easy courses:
#4. Weak or Peak?
Is the strength of the field at its peak or is it weak?
The total Official World Golf Ranking points total for this week's 156-man field was 171.93. Last week's total OWGR in a 144-man Sony field was 138.72. This tournament sees a significant increase in star power compared to prior years.
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#5. AM or PM?
What is the weather usually like at this event?
Historically, the weather in La Quinta, California does not get much warmer than 70 degrees and wind remains rather timid at this time of the year.
#6. Distance or Direction?
Is distance or direction the most important stat off the tee?
The American Express and its three different courses are statistically more favorable to those that are accurate off the tee.
The most accurate golfers on the field:
The best Strokes Gained off the tee on the field:
#7. Wedges or Woods?
Which proximity buckets are going to see the most divots this week?
I theoretically manufactured the proximity buckets on the other two courses to try to get a feel for the average across all rounds. It looks like 150-175 yards will be a very popular range this week.
These are the golfers that rate out the best when taking the above proximity buckets and prorating them to weigh 150-175 for 26% of the weighing, for example.
#8. Sand or Grandstand?
Are errant approach shots going to land up in the sand or grandstands?
This course has one of the easier scrambling percentages on tour. These are the best golfers around the green:
These are the golfers who struggle around the green:
#9. Bermuda or Bent?
Are we putting on Bermuda or Bentgrass?
These are the best putters on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds:
The worst putters on Bermuda over the last 50:
#10. Model or Maniac
Are there golfers who the model is not liking as much as the Maniac?
Below are the top 10 golfers in my model:
These are a few golfers who the Maniac likes, who the model overlooked a little:
Hopefully, this helped you prepare for the odds dropping tomorrow morning! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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