You've read about all the sleepers, waiver wire pickups and starter suggestions based on matchups. Now let me burst some bubbles and tell you who I think is going to bust big time in Week 7.
This isn't to troll or spread hate - that's what those political sites are for. Think of this as a public service for fanboys and truth deniers who insist that everything is going to be alright, when it's clearly not. If you don't believe me, just ask the general public on Twitter. They know everything.
Warning: while the picks made in this article are completely serious, you may find sarcastic humor laced throughout. If you don't have any sense of humor whatsoever, turn back now before you get all worked up.
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Week 6 Recap
Well, it finally happened. After two weeks of unsuccessfully predicting a bust play from Brandon Marshall, he joined the rest of the Jets offense in letting fantasy owners down on MNF. He miraculously still managed 70 yards despite having to catch passes from two QBs who are competing to be the Browns' starter next season. To be clear, it doesn't bring me any personal satisfaction in calling these busts. OK, maybe a little, but only if I don't have them on any of my own fantasy teams. On that note, let's take an in-depth look at how last week's picks fared according to three organized statistical categories.
Told you so: Mark Ingram, Colin Kaepernick, Brandon Marshall, Zach Miller, Jeremy Maclin
Wrong, I never said that: Eli Manning, Cameron Meredith, Ezekiel Elliott
Meh: Kirk Cousins, A.J. Green
Now that we're a couple weeks removed from Week 4, which I will continue to deny ever happened, I get ballsy again and pick a plethora of QBs to break hearts and bust brackets.
Top 10 Busts for Week 7
Drew Brees (QB, NO) - Brees is fourth in the league in passing yards with 1,734. He is coming off a week in which he tossed four TD and 465 yards. What's he doing here? Simply put, Brees loves home cookin' and he's not getting any in Week 7. The Saints travel to Arrowhead Stadium, one of the toughest venues in the NFL. The Chiefs haven't gotten a lot of pressure on opposing QBs without Justin Houston, but they are tied for the league lead in interceptions with nine. Brees has averaged 235 yards and 1.5 TD in his two road starts this season, compared to 421 yards and 3.6 TD at home. Don't expect a repeat of last week's shootout with Carolina. Plus, the Chiefs will try to control the ball by running with the duo of Jamaal Charles/Spencer Ware, keeping Brees at bay. It's not like there's ever much action at Arrowhead anyway.
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) - Is it too late to retract my preseason pick for MVP? Wilson hasn't played badly, but in fantasy terms, it has been a disappointing season thus far. He ranks 20th with 1,334 passing yards and has thrown just five touchdowns, three of which came in one game against the Jets. A road game in Arizona doesn't figure to be the remedy he needs. Opposing QBs have a 5/9 TD/INT ratio against the Cards and only three teams have held them to less fantasy points. If you have a better option, you may consider keeping Wilson on the bench. Let's face it, if you don't, then you're probably going to lose this week anyway.
Carson Palmer (QB, ARI) - Aside from the fact Seattle still boasts the top overall defense in the game and allows 209 passing YPG, Palmer just doesn't look like himself. Before last week, Palmer was completing less than 60% of his passes on the season. He is possibly dealing with an injury, but as of right now is slated to play on Sunday. It could just be Father Time catching up with the 37-year-old, but Palmer is best kept on fantasy benches until he gets good again.
Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF) - Statistically speaking, this should be a great matchup for a quarterback going against the Dolphins, especially without Jones at safety. The problem is that the Bills' offense is looking more like a MASH unit these days. Robert Woods and Charles Clay both missed practice on Wednesday, putting their availability in doubt. Without Sammy Watkins, Buffalo's offense ranks 31st in passing yards, which is not a deal-breaker when your running game and defense are dominating. The Bills should have an easy enough time running the ball without having to come from behind, limiting Taylor's opportunities in the air. He could do some damage with his feet, but he doesn't figure to be higher than a QB2 in 12+ team leagues. He won't be great this week, but at least he won't stink.
Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI) - Just when it looked like Mathews was going to re-establish his role as the alpha dog in the backfield, he carries the ball just nine times against the Redskins. This seems to reinforce the notion that the Eagles have no idea what they are doing. By the way, he's facing one of the top defenses in the league in Minnesota this week. They've allowed 309 rushing yards all year, which is second-best in the NFL. More concerning is the fact that he was only on the field for 11 snaps. He started off the season with 22 carries in Week 1 and tallied three touchdowns in the first two weeks. Since then, he has produced a very... how do I put this? He has put together a very Ryan Mathews-like string of games. Inconsistent production, a smattering of various injuries and ailments, combined with low usage sounds like the recipe for a bust.
Matt Forte (RB, NYJ) - In a game that could be the dud of the week, Forte will be hard-pressed to get much going against the Ravens. Baltimore allows just 3.4 Y/A and has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to RB. As for Forte himself, he has a 3.5 Y/A for the Jets and hasn't totaled more than 64 yards from scrimmage since Week 2. Even worse, he has been outsnapped by Bilal Powell over the past three games. Hopefully you didn't spend too much on that Matt Forte jersey in the preseason, Jets fans.
Todd Gurley (RB, LA) - Surprisingly, this is only the second time Gurley makes it to this list. The consensus #1 overall RB in most circles has disappointed like no other. He is averaging 2.9 yards per carry and has scored less fantasy points than Terrance West. The Giants aren't world-beaters against the run, falling in the middle of the pack, but there isn't much reason to think Gurley will bust out either. An early start in London always makes for unpredictable circumstances. Speaking of unpredictable, Case Keenum is suddenly hot and may be asked to put the ball in the air to match Eli Manning in this game. Gurley has only surpassed 20 carries twice this year and may not get there again this week. Then again, you never know what a Jeff Fisher coached team is capable of.
Allen Robinson (WR, JAX) - A-Rob, aside from needing a much better nickname, is going to need to benefit from some red zone targets in this game to provide value. You may have heard that the Raiders have given up more passing yards than any team in the league, which is true. Consider this: they faced New Orleans and Atlanta in the first two weeks, allowing 808 yards through the air. Since then, they have kept opponents under 300 passing yards in three of the last four games. Sean Smith and David Amerson actually rank as ProFootballFocus's top LCB/RCB duo, grading slightly ahead of the defenders in Seattle and Denver. With Allen Hurns questionable for this game, Robinson could see heavy coverage all day. There's always hope in the red zone, right?
Jeremy Kerley (WR, SF) - Before you say that calling Kerley a bust comes three years too late, let's give the man some credit. He has been the 49ers' top receiver this season, catching 28 passes for 316 yards, far out-producing Torrey Smith. Kerley's sudden revival peaked in Week 5 when he caught 8-of-14 targets for 102 yards and a TD against a tough Arizona defense. Then, Colin Kaepernick returned to the starting lineup and Kerley pulled in two catches for 12 yards last week. It's not a given that Kerley will disappear from the offense completely or that Kaepernick will remain the starter. At this point, however, it's best to keep him benched for the time being. That should apply to the entire San Francisco offense too. Jim Harbaugh, we barely knew ye...
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND) - Hilton is the type of player you have to keep in your lineup because he could turn in a big play at any moment. He has a 14.6 Y/R and has posted two games over 170 receiving yards. This week, he is battling a hip injury and may not have the same burst. Even if he goes, he won't face a pushover defensively. The Titans have allowed six receiving TDs in six games this season, the longest of which came on a 24-yard pass. Hilton and the Colts may be in for a tougher day than expected. Or maybe Andrew Luck will be able to rally the troops.