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Howdy, RotoBallers, as we gather for my weekly top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. June is approaching, which means almost one-third of the season is behind us! It's a marathon but that doesn't mean we can't make each mile count with the Week 9 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
Some key hot starts to the season have not slowed down, while others can't seem to get rolling. Let's dive into the data and see what we've got moving forward with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. This week includes a notable prospect stash list. For now, let's dive into my top 101 healthy SPs and build a winner.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
Let's start with a little leaderboard love. FYI, 32 of 162 pitchers over the last 30 days have a K-BB% over 20% (min. 10 IP). Nine pitchers have a >20% K-BB%, a SIERA under 4.00, and a gap of >1.00 between their ERA and underlying SIERA in that span:
| Name | ERA | SIERA | K-BB% | ERA-SIERA |
| Joe Musgrove | 6.48 | 3.30 | 20.90% | 3.18 |
| Pablo Lopez | 5.23 | 2.81 | 25.55% | 2.42 |
| Dane Dunning | 4.40 | 2.34 | 29.82% | 2.05 |
| Nick Pivetta | 4.60 | 2.75 | 27.59% | 1.85 |
| Jack Flaherty | 3.26 | 1.84 | 33.04% | 1.42 |
| Taj Bradley | 4.00 | 2.58 | 28.17% | 1.42 |
| Nick Lodolo | 4.70 | 3.33 | 20.21% | 1.36 |
| Paul Skenes | 2.70 | 1.60 | 38.46% | 1.10 |
| Bailey Ober | 4.08 | 3.02 | 24.77% | 1.06 |
-Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, and Taj Bradley just returned while Dane Dunning and Nick Lodolo are out, so those sample sizes are limited. I’d be happy to sneak that first trio into a trade get. I’m sending several offers for Pablo Lopez, who has a phenomenal xFIP, SIERA, xERA, walk rate, xBA, etc. behind the ugly 4.72 ERA. Jack Flaherty is legit. Paul Skenes deserves the phenom label. Bailey Ober is also doing his usual thing but has an awkward 63% strand rate (career 76%) to inflate the 4.40 ERA. Most of these are nice targets! Now to business as usual.
-Chris Sale demands I stop playing doctor and overcompensating for year-long injury risk. Unlike Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, Sale did pitch over 100 innings last year and has plenty in the theoretical tank, health willing. Whiffs are up (the 15.5% swinging-strike rate trails only his 2018 mark), yet walks are at a career-low 3.6% through 57 IP.
Chris Sale — May MLB Ranks
⛵️ 1st FIP (0.67)
⛵️ 1st Ks (37)
⛵️ 1st K/BB (37.00)
⛵️ 1st Wins (4)
⛵️ 1st fWAR (1.4)
⛵️ 2nd ERA (0.36) pic.twitter.com/DMmaKiRE4P— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) May 21, 2024
-Freddy Peralta continues to bring the strikeouts and sports his usual control -- whiffs and walks are not the problem here. The quality of contact surrendered is. His xwOBACON (Expected Weighted On-Base Average on Contact, which effectively measures how well balls are put in play) is .427, which resides in the bottom 10% of MLB. The 10.9% barrel rate and 39.5% Launch Angle Sweet Spot rate are career-worst marks. I think he’s a nice buy-low; the 3.47 FIP/3.07 SIERA are cushy behind the 4.17 ERA, though his ERA typically creeps above them.
-Grayson Rodriguez had a sweet “re-entry” matchup against Seattle after missing over two weeks due to right shoulder inflammation. GrayRod struck out seven M’s over six shutout frames, allowing just one hit alongside three walks. In a perfect world, that ~9% walk rate starts to drop but his raw stuff is tough to punish and Camden is a friendly backdrop. Let’s hope the shoulder stays good. I don’t blame anyone for selling high following the shining return.
-Seth Lugo had been pitching well but I wasn’t prepared for back-to-back gems with double-digit strikeouts. And with only one free pass issued in those 13 ⅔ IP? (Yes, a 22:1 K:BB in nearly 14 IP is great, thanks for asking.) The Ks raised the pitch count enough to rob him of an eighth quality start by one out, but his seventh win in 10 trips to the hill would do.
A quick glance at sabermetrics like FIP, SIERA, SwStr%, K-BB%, xBA, xwOBA, Barrel%, and more don’t look sizably different from past seasons. There is some luck (.253 vs. .286 career) and facing the likes of Oakland, Detroit, and the ChiSox (x2), but he’s an AL Central pitcher!
He also introduced a cutter and started throwing his curveball more exclusively against left-handed batters. The curve’s whiff rate has jumped over 10 percentage points from ‘23, with the putaway rate more than doubling (16.9% to 36.4%!). His slider is still reserved for righty bats but he’s increased the spin rate by over 100 rpm with solid results. Is he really this good? No. But that division remains weak and he’s made some changes to optimize his attack that might get lost in the shuffle.
Seth Lugo continues his trek in the AL Cy Young Race with a strong performance against Oakland
Lugo utilized his extremely deep pitch mix to stifle A's hitters and generate 16 Whiffs. 8 Different pitches today!
He had a stellar 1.79 ERA in 65.1 IP pic.twitter.com/oNskbbXyPd
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 19, 2024
-Michael King has top-25 upside but remember this is his first full year as a starter in new digs. His 11% walk rate and 19% HR/FB rate are dragging him down, though he looked as though he’d left those issues in the past with consecutive scoreless outings on May 4 and 10. Then, he crashed with six runs against the road Rockies. Inconsistency is a factor here. Only four QS in nine starts caps the excitement on someone who likely has ~100 more innings tops.
-Luis Gil crushed the White Sox with 14 strikeouts over six innings on Saturday. The 25-year-old has a 2.39 ERA and 31.2% strikeout rate through 49 IP but only threw four innings last year and 25 IP in ‘22 due to injuries. How many innings do they put on him? Would they save him as a bullpen arm for a team with playoff aspirations? If health holds for all and Gerrit Cole returns, then someone is getting shifted and the entire rotation is doing extremely well.
Guys near the end of the table who carry underrated upside: Jose Soriano, Alec Marsh, Robert Gasser, Spencer Arrighetti, and Tylor Megill.
Prospects to Stash via our stud Eric Cross:
Cade Horton (CHC)
Cade Povich (BAL)
Max Meyer (MIA)
Drew Thorpe (CHW)
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL)
Jack Leiter (TEX)
Jackson Jobe (DET)
Jacob Misiorowski (NYM)
Blade Tidwell (NYM)
Chayce McDermott (BAL)
Sem Robberse (STL)
Carson Whisenhunt (SF)
A.J. Blubaugh (HOU)
David Festa (MIN)
Cade Povich Triple-A ranks:
K-BB% - 1st
K% - 1st
ERA - 2nd
FIP - 1st
WHIP - 2nd
AVG - 1stHe's obviously blocked in Baltimore, but so hard not to be impressed with his season during a time when few other Triple-A arms are grabbing our attention.
— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) May 21, 2024
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 0 | 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 1 | $44.0 | 44.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | 2 | $42.5 | 43.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 3 | $42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 2 | Tarik Skubal | 4 | $41.0 | 41.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 9 | 2 | Chris Sale | 5 | $39.0 | 32.5 | 6.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 2 | Pablo Lopez | 6 | $39.0 | 40.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 2 | Luis Castillo | 7 | $38.0 | 39.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 2 | Cole Ragans | 8 | $36.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 3 | George Kirby | 9 | $36.0 | 38.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 3 | Jared Jones | 10 | $35.0 | 35.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 11 | $35.0 | 35.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 3 | Shota Imanaga | 12 | $34.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -5 | 3 | Freddy Peralta | 13 | $33.0 | 36.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 3 | Max Fried | 14 | $32.5 | 34.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 1 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 15 | $31.0 | 30.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 3 | Logan Webb | 16 | $31.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 17 | $30.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 3 | Joe Ryan | 18 | $28.0 | 28.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 19 | $28.0 | 29.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 4 | Kevin Gausman | 20 | $25.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 4 | Logan Gilbert | 21 | $25.5 | 25.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 4 | Kyle Bradish | 22 | $25.0 | 24.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| N/A | 4 | Grayson Rodriguez | 23 | $25.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -2 | 4 | Sonny Gray | 24 | $25.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 4 | Bailey Ober | 25 | $23.0 | 22.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 26 | $21.5 | 21.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Jesus Luzardo | 27 | $21.0 | 20.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Garrett Crochet | 28 | $20.0 | 19.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 4 | Paul Skenes | 29 | $20.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 7 | 5 | Ranger Suarez | 30 | $19.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 7 | 5 | Jack Flaherty | 31 | $19.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 5 | Framber Valdez | 32 | $17.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 5 | Justin Steele | 33 | $17.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 5 | Yusei Kikuchi | 34 | $17.5 | 17.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 6 | 5 | Nick Pivetta | 35 | $17.5 | 15.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 5 | Bryce Miller | 36 | $17.5 | 19.5 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -8 | 5 | Kutter Crawford | 37 | $17.0 | 19.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 7 | 5 | Seth Lugo | 38 | $16.5 | 14.5 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -4 | 5 | Ronel Blanco | 39 | $16.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -13 | 6 | Michael King | 40 | $16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 6 | MacKenzie Gore | 41 | $15.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 6 | Walker Buehler | 42 | $15.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 6 | Tanner Houck | 43 | $15.0 | 14.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 6 | Reynaldo Lopez | 44 | $14.5 | 14.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 12 | 6 | Luis Gil | 45 | $14.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 6 | Carlos Rodon | 46 | $14.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 19 | 6 | Bryan Woo | 47 | $13.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 6 | Cristopher Sanchez | 48 | $12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -13 | 6 | Christian Scott | 49 | $11.0 | 15.5 | -4.5 ▼ |
| -7 | 6 | John Means | 50 | $11.0 | 15.0 | -4.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 7 | Tanner Bibee | 51 | $11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 7 | Chris Bassitt | 52 | $10.0 | 12.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 7 | Nestor Cortes | 53 | $10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 7 | Ryan Pepiot | 54 | $10.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 7 | Blake Snell | 55 | $9.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 7 | Joe Musgrove | 56 | $9.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 6 | 7 | Taj Bradley | 57 | $8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 7 | Reese Olson | 58 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -6 | 7 | Brayan Bello | 59 | $8.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -8 | 7 | Jose Berrios | 60 | $8.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -5 | 7 | Hunter Greene | 61 | $8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -12 | 7 | Justin Verlander | 62 | $8.0 | 10.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 7 | Cristian Javier | 63 | $8.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 6 | 8 | Clarke Schmidt | 64 | $7.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -6 | 8 | Jordan Hicks | 65 | $7.0 | 8.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 8 | Casey Mize | 66 | $6.0 | 6.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 67 | $6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -7 | 8 | Jordan Montgomery | 68 | $5.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 8 | Gavin Stone | 69 | $5.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 8 | Erick Fedde | 70 | $5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 8 | Brady Singer | 71 | $5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 8 | Triston McKenzie | 72 | $4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 8 | Javier Assad | 73 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -12 | 8 | Charlie Morton | 74 | $4.0 | 8.0 | -4.0 ▼ |
| 13 | 8 | Alek Manoah | 75 | $4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -4 | 8 | Mitch Keller | 76 | $4.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -4 | 8 | Dean Kremer | 77 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 9 | Andrew Heaney | 78 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 9 | Jose Soriano | 79 | $4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -2 | 9 | Brandon Pfaadt | 80 | $3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 9 | Griffin Canning | 81 | $3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 9 | Jon Gray | 82 | $3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 9 | Tyler Anderson | 83 | $2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 9 | 9 | Andrew Abbott | 84 | $2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 10 | 9 | Alec Marsh | 85 | $2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -4 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 86 | $2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -8 | 9 | Aaron Civale | 87 | $2.0 | 3.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -4 | 10 | James Paxton | 88 | $1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -4 | 10 | Zack Littell | 89 | $1.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 10 | Sean Manaea | 90 | $1.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 11 | 10 | Michael Wacha | 91 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -16 | 10 | Reid Detmers | 92 | $1.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 10 | Robert Gasser | 93 | $1.5 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Spencer Arrighetti | 94 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -15 | 10 | Matt Manning | 95 | $1.0 | 3.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -7 | 10 | Kyle Harrison | 96 | $1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -5 | 10 | Luis Severino | 97 | $1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -4 | 10 | Logan Allen | 98 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 10 | Frankie Montas | 99 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Tylor Megill | 100 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -2 | 10 | Hunter Brown | 101 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
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