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The middle of May approaches and suddenly the season is roughly 25% of the way done, so let's not waste time and get on with another edition of my weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. Stats continue to feel more grounded in reality so let's jump into another edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
There are many young arms that have been FAAB magnets and the desire of several trade suitors, but don't let savvy veterans sneak by your radar as a result. Shiny new toy syndrome can catch you sleeping!
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. However, it's still early so I'll try to loosely peg where I value injured arms amidst the fray. For now, let's dive into my top 101 SPs and be sure we're starting strong.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Dylan Cease gave up only one earned run in each of his first three starts of 2023, sporting a lively 24/7 K/BB over just 16 ⅓ IP. Unfortunately, his form has deteriorated since and Monday saw a season-high seven earned tacked onto his ledger. His 8.25 ERA (5.31 FIP) in his most recent five starts has a .408 BABIP attached to it, but also a homer yielded in four consecutive outings.
He’s living in the zone too much with fewer whiffs and somehow more walks than last year despite a big jump in his first-strike rate (62.4% thus far, 58.2% in ‘22). Batters’ overall swing rate against him is exactly the same as last year, yet the zone-swing rate is up nearly four percentage points coupled with a loss in chase rate. The zone-contact rate has soared from 79.7% to 86.6%. He’s in trouble and needs to re-establish trust. Sharpen that slider!
Dylan Cease slider location from 2022 to 2023:
Whiff% 43.3 --> 38.0
BA Allowed .128 --> .217
HardHit% 22.0 --> 48.8 pic.twitter.com/55P8i3HVjo— Will Harris (@sandwich_pick) May 5, 2023
-Hunter Greene is producing huge strikeouts (47 in 33 ⅔ IP) as anticipated but is also allowing fewer homers with slightly fewer walks. Warmer weather at Great American Ball Park will undoubtedly bring some more longballs but the strong indicators thus far should be supplying us with more than a 1.43 WHIP.
Unfortunately, some poor fortune has taken hold of his .384 BABIP (.281 last year) and so his 3.74 ERA sits above the shiny 2.96 FIP. He’s going in the opposite direction of Mr. Cease. More swings out of the zone, fewer in the zone, and a seven-percentage-point drop in his first-strike rate. In 2022, Greene had a .222 batting average against with a .220 xBA. This year, his .218 xBA is tied to a .265 BAA. Expect some better luck if his form holds.
-Freddy Peralta had two sticky starts in mid-April but has otherwise produced five quality starts for his fantasy teams. The 26-year-old even handled Coors Field well, toying with the Rockies for a season-best 10 strikeouts. Everything looks rather rosy on the surface, but Statcast data is less enamored.
Peralta’s xBA of .235 and xSLG of .366 are fine but not his norm. He’d posted xBAs of .191, .174, and .179 in ‘22, ‘21, and ‘20. His xSLG was .300 or lower in both ‘21 and ‘22. Batters are slugging .471 on Peralta’s changeup, which is suddenly averaging 89.4 mph compared to 85.9 mph last year. The gap between his four-seamer and change is only five mph in ‘23 compared to seven mph last season.
-Bryce Miller has had an electrifying start to his MLB career via dominant showings against Oakland and Houston. The 24-year-old has thrown a devastating fastball 70% of the time, which has a league-leading 4.7 inches of rise above average. Mr. PitchingNinja calls it a “flaming buzzsaw” as it rides up in the zone on hitters. A game of adjustments will be made but this is an elite weapon in Miller’s arsenal.
The velo is nice but what's elite is his fastball "rise".
25% of Spencer Strider's fastballs this year have dropped 9" or less. That's really awesome.
Bryce Miller? 49%. 🤯 https://t.co/2rcBgu3QgC
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 7, 2023
-Mitch Keller merely tossed a complete-game shutout on Monday, ho-hum. The strong effort lowers his ERA/WHIP to 2.72/1.09 in the young season, and he’s also found more whiffs with improved control.
He’s checking all of the boxes off in terms of “making a leap” and now has six quality starts in his eight trips to the hill in 2023. Consider his first start allowed four runs with four walks to the Reds at GABP and then realize he hasn’t given up more than three earned or issued more than two free passes in any of his following seven starts.
That includes games against the Astros, Rays, Dodgers, and Red Sox at Fenway! Bucco magic is coursing through Mitch’s veins and you should be enjoying the ride.
-Bailey Ober continues to come on strong after a May 5 outing that yielded seven innings of shutout ball against the Rays. He has a lively fastball for everyone, with a strong slider to use on right-handed bats (.137 xwOBA so far) while his changeup and curve are deployed against lefties.
His .217 BABIP will regress, but not as far as you might think. He’s a fly ball pitcher so that mark will be low, though it’ll come with some home runs at some point. No one thinks he is a sub-1.00 ERA pitcher but a mark near 3.50 is doable with his pattern of strong control (career 5.3% walk rate).
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 7
| Tier | Name | Rank | $ |
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 1 | $45.0 |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 2 | $43.0 |
| 1 | Spencer Strider | 3 | $42.0 |
| 1 | Shane McClanahan | 4 | $41.0 |
| 2 | Zac Gallen | 5 | $41.0 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 6 | $39.0 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 7 | $38.0 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 8 | $37.0 |
| 2 | Kevin Gausman | 9 | $36.5 |
| 3 | Sandy Alcantara | 10 | $36.0 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | 11 | $34.0 |
| 3 | Clayton Kershaw | 12 | $34.0 |
| 3 | Cristian Javier | 13 | $31.5 |
| 3 | Julio Urias | 14 | $31.5 |
| 3 | Aaron Nola | 15 | $30.5 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 16 | $30.0 |
| 3 | Framber Valdez | 17 | $29.0 |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | 18 | $28.5 |
| 4 | Joe Ryan | 19 | $27.0 |
| 4 | Joe Musgrove | 20 | $26.0 |
| 4 | Nestor Cortes Jr. | 21 | $24.5 |
| 4 | Jacob deGrom | 22 | $24.0 |
| 4 | Pablo Lopez | 23 | $23.5 |
| 4 | Sonny Gray | 24 | $23.0 |
| 4 | Shane Bieber | 25 | $22.0 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 26 | $20.5 |
| 4 | George Kirby | 27 | $20.0 |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 28 | $20.0 |
| 4 | Logan Webb | 29 | $20.0 |
| 4 | Freddy Peralta | 30 | $20.0 |
| 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 31 | $19.0 |
| 4 | Hunter Greene | 32 | $19.0 |
| 4 | Chris Sale | 33 | $18.0 |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | 34 | $17.0 |
| 5 | Luis Severino | 35 | $17.0 |
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 36 | $17.0 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 37 | $16.5 |
| 5 | Brandon Woodruff | 38 | $16.0 |
| 5 | Carlos Rodon | 39 | $15.5 |
| 5 | Chris Bassitt | 40 | $15.0 |
| 5 | Jordan Montgomery | 41 | $15.0 |
| 5 | Hunter Brown | 42 | $14.5 |
| 5 | Nick Lodolo | 43 | $14.5 |
| 6 | Andrew Heaney | 44 | $14.0 |
| 6 | Justin Steele | 45 | $13.5 |
| 6 | Blake Snell | 46 | $13.5 |
| 6 | Bryce Miller | 47 | $13.5 |
| 6 | Dustin May | 48 | $13.0 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 49 | $12.0 |
| 6 | Triston McKenzie | 50 | $11.0 |
| 6 | Charlie Morton | 51 | $10.5 |
| 6 | Marcus Stroman | 52 | $10.5 |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | 53 | $10.0 |
| 6 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 54 | $10.0 |
| 7 | Tanner Bibee | 55 | $10.0 |
| 7 | Jon Gray | 56 | $10.0 |
| 7 | Alex Cobb | 57 | $9.5 |
| 7 | Lucas Giolito | 58 | $9.0 |
| 7 | Logan Allen | 59 | $8.5 |
| 7 | Mitch Keller | 60 | $8.0 |
| 7 | Kodai Senga | 61 | $8.0 |
| 7 | Alek Manoah | 62 | $8.0 |
| 7 | Bailey Ober | 63 | $8.0 |
| 7 | Zach Eflin | 64 | $7.0 |
| 7 | Grayson Rodriguez | 65 | $6.0 |
| 7 | Bryce Elder | 66 | $6.0 |
| 8 | Patrick Sandoval | 67 | $6.0 |
| 8 | Brandon Pfaadt | 68 | $5.5 |
| 8 | Kyle Wright | 69 | $5.0 |
| 8 | Tony Gonsolin | 70 | $5.0 |
| 8 | Anthony DeSclafani | 71 | $4.5 |
| 8 | Josiah Gray | 72 | $4.5 |
| 8 | J.P. France | 73 | $4.5 |
| 8 | Johan Oviedo | 74 | $4.5 |
| 8 | Merrill Kelly | 75 | $4.0 |
| 8 | Graham Ashcraft | 76 | $4.0 |
| 8 | Tyler Anderson | 77 | $4.0 |
| 8 | Drew Smyly | 78 | $4.0 |
| 8 | Jose Berrios | 79 | $3.5 |
| 8 | Jameson Taillon | 80 | $3.5 |
| 8 | Brady Singer | 81 | $3.0 |
| 8 | Martin Perez | 82 | $3.0 |
| 8 | Louie Varland | 83 | $2.5 |
| 8 | Tyler Wells | 84 | $2.5 |
| 8 | Edward Cabrera | 85 | $2.0 |
| 9 | MacKenzie Gore | 86 | $2.0 |
| 9 | Domingo German | 87 | $2.0 |
| 9 | Seth Lugo | 88 | $2.0 |
| 9 | Roansy Contreras | 89 | $2.0 |
| 9 | Max Fried | 90 | $1.5 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | 91 | $1.5 |
| 9 | Sean Manaea | 92 | $1.5 |
| 9 | Luis Ortiz | 93 | $1.5 |
| 9 | Wade Miley | 94 | $1.0 |
| 9 | JP Sears | 95 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Miles Mikolas | 96 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | 97 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | 98 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 99 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Brayan Bello | 100 | $1.0 |
| 9 | Kyle Gibson | 101 | $1.0 |
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