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Nick Mariano's updated fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for Week 20 (2023). Baller Ranks is a weekly rankings list for the top-101 starting pitchers.
We're getting into the thick of August, which calls for another edition of my biweekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. As it is later in the season, these updates will come every other week. We'll slowly transition to leaning on streamers and pure pitching matchups come September, but for now let's keep it rolling with my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
As usual, the tiers are the most critical piece of the puzzle, though the position within them is still informative! We've added the previous edition's position and the change (Delta) since then. I would say the ranks are going to increase in aggressiveness as the window tightens.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and I try to present key injured pitchers where I have them for the rest of the season. Let's get to it!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Blake Snell is dancing around danger as the walks have crept back up. The southpaw had a nine-start window where only once did he issue more than three free passes in a game, but now he’s exceeded four walks in four consecutive outings. This includes a terrifying seven-walk game against Toronto.
Blake Snell will finish July with 26 (!!!) walks. He had 24 in May and June combined.
What happened??
— Hunter the Beerkid (@the_Beerkid69) July 30, 2023
Yet he’s given up just five earned runs in those four starts, so most are willing to shrug it off. Mark me down as scared, but at least his strikeouts maintain a strong floor even if the WHIP balloons back up. This jeopardizes his ability to work deeper into games and generate quality starts for those who tally them. And one mistake goes from a solo homer to a three-run blast if walks preceded it.
-Shohei Ohtani needs all of the electrolytes in the world, perhaps some Brawndo, to carry this Angels team on his own. Multiple instances of cramping in a small time window yield increased risk moving forward, but he’s still amazing when on the bump (duh).
-Max Fried dismantled a surging Cubs team in his first start in three months. Atlanta’s 29-year-old scattered three hits with zero walks and eight strikeouts over six pristine frames. Fried should be a viable SP1 given the Braves’ stellar defense, run support, and bullpen.
-Sandy Alcantara has looked far better of late, though good teams have been tagging him for home runs along the way. His strong walk rate tends to limit damage, as seen by five runs (four earned) on three home runs by Texas on August 6. In fact, his last seven starts have seen more homers (9) than walks (7). We’re still getting less than a strikeout per inning so we need those ratios to hold up with elite control.
-Brandon Woodruff was done in by two solo homers in his return from shoulder tightness that forced him to miss four months of action. Milwaukee offered little by way of offensive backing and Woody took the tough-luck loss. I know it was the Pirates but nine strikeouts and zero walks are incredibly encouraging here. Let’s hope for a nice stretch run to reward those who held on.
5 batters, 5 strikeouts for Brandon Woodruff
pic.twitter.com/30GzVEA5cd— James Schiano (@James_Schiano) August 6, 2023
-Pablo Lopez had a rough stretch two months ago but has largely been a stud in 2023. The problem that anchors most of our thinking is he’ll post a few great starts and then a horrible one. The 27-year-old got lambasted for seven runs by Oakland on July 15, which stings. His other six most recent starts? Six combined runs with a 46/6 K/BB in those 40 innings. Cherry picking is dangerous but trust the greater body of work here for Lopez.
-Eury Perez drew a difficult welcome wagon at Great American Ballpark in his return to the bigs. Just like his MLB debut, the Reds tagged him for two home runs while striking out seven times. Let’s see how he settles back into the majors but the only real limiter will be how Miami limits his inning workload. We’ll hope for at least five and being eligible for the win moving forward.
-Lance Lynn went from a four-seamer/cutter usage split of 38%/26% in July for Chicago to 57%/10% through two Dodger starts. Their blueprint for him is clear and he’s executing well. Batters hit an awful .154 against the four-seamer in July (.193 xBA) and that’s continued with a .120 average (.221 xBA) in the pair of LAD outings. Batters are hitting over .400 against said cutter in July-August so scrapping that was a smart move. Enjoy the stronger team environment here!
-Jack Flaherty looks like a big deadline winner as Baltimore did the opposite of Lynn/LAD and had Flaherty leaning on his cutter more (season-high 28%). Sprinkle in some adrenaline-infused velocity spikes around 97 mph and ol’ Jack had an exciting Baltimore debut (6 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K). Can he keep that surge going down the stretch or was it a one-off “new team” bump? Let’s see.
Takeaways from #Orioles Jack Flaherty's start
- +1.2 mph on the FF velo
- Big bump in cutter usage. 28% in this start and that was a season high. It had -2.2 mph on it but with 4 more inches of V-Mov. It took the place of the slider (5% usage) and had a 57% whiff%
- The slider… pic.twitter.com/F8PzPAelKC— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) August 4, 2023
Later arms with higher upside to keep close by: Chase Silseth, Cole Ragans, and an honorable mention for Zack Littell. Perhaps Littell will push his way onto here with his next appearance. We’re hoping the Angels keep Silseth around with a six-man rotation but his lower spot reflects the risk. Don’t be afraid to churn those final roster spots when mining for matchups and upside.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 20
| Tier | Name | Rank | $Value | Last Rank | Delta |
| 1 | Spencer Strider | 1 | $43.5 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 2 | $43.0 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | 3 | $42.0 | 9 | 6 |
| 1 | Kevin Gausman | 4 | $42.0 | 4 | 0 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 5 | $41.0 | 5 | 0 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 6 | $40.0 | 8 | 2 |
| 2 | Zac Gallen | 7 | $39.0 | 6 | -1 |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | 8 | $38.0 | 3 | -5 |
| 2 | Blake Snell | 9 | $36.5 | 7 | -2 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 10 | $36.0 | 16 | 6 |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | 11 | $35.0 | 21 | 10 |
| 2 | Framber Valdez | 12 | $34.0 | 11 | -1 |
| 2 | Max Fried | 13 | $31.5 | 52 | 39 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 14 | $31.5 | 14 | 0 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 15 | $31.0 | 13 | -2 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 16 | $29.5 | 17 | 1 |
| 3 | George Kirby | 17 | $28.5 | 20 | 3 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 18 | $28.5 | 22 | 4 |
| 3 | Chris Bassitt | 19 | $27.0 | 24 | 5 |
| 3 | Sandy Alcantara | 20 | $26.0 | 25 | 5 |
| 3 | Brandon Woodruff | 21 | $25.0 | 54 | 33 |
| 3 | Jesus Luzardo | 22 | $24.0 | 28 | 6 |
| 3 | Zach Eflin | 23 | $23.5 | 27 | 4 |
| 3 | Freddy Peralta | 24 | $24.0 | 37 | 13 |
| 4 | Pablo Lopez | 25 | $23.0 | 29 | 4 |
| 4 | Aaron Nola | 26 | $22.0 | 15 | -11 |
| 4 | Julio Urias | 27 | $21.5 | 26 | -1 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 28 | $19.5 | 23 | -5 |
| 4 | Justin Steele | 29 | $19.5 | 35 | 6 |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | 30 | $19.0 | 41 | 11 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 31 | $19.0 | 90 | 59 |
| 5 | Jordan Montgomery | 32 | $18.0 | 39 | 7 |
| 5 | Kodai Senga | 33 | $17.0 | 40 | 7 |
| 5 | Charlie Morton | 34 | $17.0 | 36 | 2 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 35 | $17.0 | 32 | -3 |
| 5 | Andrew Abbott | 36 | $16.5 | 45 | 9 |
| 5 | Bryce Miller | 37 | $16.5 | 46 | 9 |
| 5 | James Paxton | 38 | $16.0 | 48 | 10 |
| 5 | Tanner Bibee | 39 | $15.5 | 47 | 8 |
| 5 | Hunter Brown | 40 | $15.0 | 31 | -9 |
| 6 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 41 | $15.0 | 53 | 12 |
| 6 | Kenta Maeda | 42 | $14.5 | 55 | 13 |
| 6 | Nestor Cortes Jr. | 43 | $14.5 | 64 | 21 |
| 6 | Eury Perez | 44 | $14.0 | 77 | 33 |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | 45 | $13.5 | 56 | 11 |
| 6 | Kyle Bradish | 46 | $13.5 | 50 | 4 |
| 6 | Bobby Miller | 47 | $13.5 | 42 | -5 |
| 6 | Grayson Rodriguez | 48 | $13.0 | 81 | 33 |
| 6 | Tarik Skubal | 49 | $12.0 | 71 | 22 |
| 6 | Jose Berrios | 50 | $11.0 | 51 | 1 |
| 6 | Marcus Stroman | 51 | $10.5 | 30 | -21 |
| 6 | Michael Lorenzen | 52 | $10.5 | 80 | 28 |
| 6 | Bailey Ober | 53 | $10.0 | 49 | -4 |
| 6 | Nathan Eovaldi | 54 | $10.0 | 18 | -36 |
| 6 | Aaron Civale | 55 | $10.0 | -- | -- |
| 6 | Jack Flaherty | 56 | $10.0 | 65 | 9 |
| 6 | Hunter Greene | 57 | $9.5 | 73 | 16 |
| 6 | Lucas Giolito | 58 | $9.0 | 57 | -1 |
| 6 | Cristian Javier | 59 | $8.5 | 58 | -1 |
| 6 | Merrill Kelly | 60 | $8.0 | 67 | 7 |
| 6 | Brayan Bello | 61 | $8.0 | 70 | 9 |
| 6 | Joe Ryan | 62 | $8.0 | 19 | -43 |
| 7 | Jon Gray | 63 | $8.0 | 33 | -30 |
| 7 | Reid Detmers | 64 | $7.0 | 59 | -5 |
| 7 | Taijuan Walker | 65 | $6.0 | 63 | -2 |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 66 | $6.0 | 68 | 2 |
| 7 | Nick Pivetta | 67 | $6.0 | 82 | 15 |
| 7 | Andrew Heaney | 68 | $5.5 | 60 | -8 |
| 7 | Mitch Keller | 69 | $5.0 | 34 | -35 |
| 7 | Seth Lugo | 70 | $5.0 | 92 | 22 |
| 7 | Kutter Crawford | 71 | $4.5 | 94 | 23 |
| 7 | Braxton Garrett | 72 | $4.5 | 43 | -29 |
| 7 | JP Sears | 73 | $4.5 | 96 | 23 |
| 7 | Steven Matz | 74 | $4.5 | -- | -- |
| 7 | Yusei Kikuchi | 75 | $4.0 | 83 | 8 |
| 7 | Brady Singer | 76 | $4.0 | 99 | 23 |
| 7 | Cristopher Sanchez | 77 | $4.0 | -- | -- |
| 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 78 | $4.0 | 89 | 11 |
| 7 | Cole Ragans | 79 | $3.5 | -- | -- |
| 7 | Jameson Taillon | 80 | $3.5 | 84 | 4 |
| 7 | Alex Cobb | 81 | $3.0 | 62 | -19 |
| 7 | Chase Silseth | 82 | $3.0 | -- | -- |
| 8 | Joe Musgrove | 83 | $2.5 | 12 | -71 |
| 8 | Kyle Hendricks | 84 | $2.5 | 91 | 7 |
| 8 | J.P. France | 85 | $2.0 | 78 | -7 |
| 8 | Bryce Elder | 86 | $2.0 | 61 | -25 |
| 8 | Jose Quintana | 87 | $2.0 | -- | -- |
| 8 | Alek Manoah | 88 | $2.0 | 72 | -16 |
| 8 | Johan Oviedo | 89 | $2.0 | -- | -- |
| 8 | MacKenzie Gore | 90 | $1.5 | 69 | -21 |
| 8 | Michael Kopech | 91 | $1.5 | 85 | -6 |
| 8 | Dean Kremer | 92 | $1.5 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Kyle Gibson | 93 | $1.5 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Dane Dunning | 94 | $1.0 | 95 | 1 |
| 9 | Luis Medina | 95 | $1.0 | 100 | 5 |
| 9 | Wade Miley | 96 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Hyun Jin Ryu | 97 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Johnny Cueto | 98 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Clarke Schmidt | 99 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Jose Urquidy | 100 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Miles Mikolas | 101 | $1.0 | 93 | -8 |
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