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Nick Mariano's updated fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for Week 18 (2023). Baller Ranks is a weekly rankings list for the top-101 starting pitchers.
The second half of the season is well underway and so it's time for another edition of my biweekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. As it is later in the season, these updates will come every other week. Eventually, we'll give way to streamer articles! But some of you still have trades to make so let's build a championship squad with my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
As usual, the tiers are the most critical piece of the puzzle, though the position within them is still informative! We've added the previous edition's position and the change (Delta) since then. I would say the ranks are going to increase in aggressiveness as the window tightens.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and I try to present key injured pitchers where I have them for the rest of the season. Let's hop in with half of the season in the books.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
We’re rounding the “two-thirds corner” as August approaches. Some of you may find yourself behind on innings in rotisserie leagues and needing to ramp up the streaming. Others are ahead in IP and need to only play premium matchups. Perhaps some trades can help you reallocate resources ahead of your league's deadline?
Regardless, the action keeps on flowing and we have some very intriguing arms to discuss for the home stretch. I’m not here to throw darts about when we’ll see Eury Perez back because we’re all just F5’ing Craig Mish’s Twitter page anyway. (But it should be soon!)
Joe Ryan is the first name. Out of 104 SPs with over 20 IP in the last 30 days, Ryan’s 29.8% K-BB rate is fourth. His 2.92 SIERA in that window is seventh. Amazing, right? But those who roster Ryan know he’s also got a 7.30 ERA and 6.85 FIP over that span.
While a five-homer beating by the Braves helped, he’s given up 11 longballs in his last five outings combined. He’d only surrendered eight total homers in his first 15 trips to the hill. I’m encouraged that he hasn’t lost his strikeouts and overall control profile as a result, but he must cut back on the meatballs. Doctor’s orders.
Hunter Brown is another ERA disconnect, as his 5.55 mark over the last month doesn’t align with a 3.90 FIP, 3.10 xFIP, and 3.32 SIERA. The 11.84 K/9 is helpful, but a 1.64 WHIP goes with the bloated ERA to ravage our ratios. Joe Ryan’s .396 BABIP in the last month is horrible, but Brown’s .439 mark creates quite a gap between the worst and second-worst.
Expect brighter skies ahead if he can pull up that 58.9% first-strike rate and limit the number of get-back-in-the-count fastballs down the middle.
For what it’s worth, four pitchers (min. 20 IP) had a BABIP under .200 in the last month: Brandon Bielak (there you go), Matt Manning, Andrew Abbott, and Corbin Burnes. Abbott and Burnes will square off Tuesday night after I’ve submitted this. Of those four, only Burnes had a SIERA under 4.00 on the month.
Other notables close to that .200 line are Nathan Eovaldi (.203), Luis Medina (.212), and James Paxton (.214). Eovaldi had his turn skipped in the rotation to give him a breather, while also avoiding Houston’s pesky lineup. His latest start on July 18 supplied his lowest average four-seam velocity on the season (93.1 mph). Let’s hope he rebounds and can get back into the 95-96 mph range from the first half.
Tanner Bibee is one of four pitchers within the same 104-SP group we’ve been working with who hasn’t surrendered a single barrel in the last month. He’s also walked only one batter in each of his last two starts, despite facing potent lineups in Texas and Philadelphia.
The 34/12 K/BB ratio in his last 29 ⅔ IP is tantalizing and Progressive Field remains a stellar place to pitch. Statcast has Progressive Field with a bottom-five Park Factor over the last three years, and the second-lowest for just 2022 (Petco has the lowest).
Brandon Pfaadt gave reason to feel encouraged in his July 22 return to the majors, making it five scoreless innings against Cincinnati before the wheels came off with back-to-back-to-back home runs. We saw Pfaadt move toward first base on the rubber, display a different sinker, and a sharper slider that grew his Stuff+ grade from 145 to 156, per Lance Brozdowski.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 18
| Tier | Name | Rank | $Value | Last Rank | Delta |
| 1 | Spencer Strider | 1 | $43.5 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 2 | $43.0 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 3 | $42.0 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | Kevin Gausman | 4 | $42.0 | 2 | -2 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 5 | $41.0 | 5 | 0 |
| 2 | Zac Gallen | 6 | $40.0 | 6 | 0 |
| 2 | Blake Snell | 7 | $39.0 | 7 | 0 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 8 | $38.0 | 8 | 0 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 9 | $36.5 | 12 | 3 |
| 2 | Shane McClanahan | 10 | $36.0 | 9 | -1 |
| 2 | Framber Valdez | 11 | $35.0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2 | Joe Musgrove | 12 | $34.0 | 13 | 1 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 13 | $31.5 | 10 | -3 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 14 | $31.5 | 14 | 0 |
| 2 | Aaron Nola | 15 | $31.0 | 16 | 1 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 16 | $29.5 | 22 | 6 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 17 | $28.5 | 17 | 0 |
| 3 | Nathan Eovaldi | 18 | $28.5 | 15 | -3 |
| 3 | Joe Ryan | 19 | $27.0 | 18 | -1 |
| 3 | George Kirby | 20 | $26.0 | 19 | -1 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | 21 | $25.0 | 20 | -1 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 22 | $24.0 | 23 | 1 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 23 | $23.5 | 26 | 3 |
| 3 | Chris Bassitt | 24 | $24.0 | 28 | 4 |
| 4 | Sandy Alcantara | 25 | $23.0 | 21 | -4 |
| 4 | Julio Urias | 26 | $22.0 | 24 | -2 |
| 4 | Zach Eflin | 27 | $21.5 | 30 | 3 |
| 4 | Jesus Luzardo | 28 | $19.5 | 31 | 3 |
| 4 | Pablo Lopez | 29 | $19.5 | 27 | -2 |
| 4 | Marcus Stroman | 30 | $19.0 | 29 | -1 |
| 5 | Hunter Brown | 31 | $19.0 | 32 | 1 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 32 | $18.0 | 33 | 1 |
| 5 | Jon Gray | 33 | $17.0 | 34 | 1 |
| 5 | Mitch Keller | 34 | $17.0 | 35 | 1 |
| 5 | Justin Steele | 35 | $17.0 | 39 | 4 |
| 5 | Charlie Morton | 36 | $16.5 | 41 | 5 |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 37 | $16.5 | 44 | 7 |
| 5 | Carlos Rodon | 38 | $16.0 | 36 | -2 |
| 5 | Jordan Montgomery | 39 | $15.5 | 37 | -2 |
| 5 | Kodai Senga | 40 | $15.0 | 46 | 6 |
| 6 | Logan Gilbert | 41 | $15.0 | 38 | -3 |
| 6 | Bobby Miller | 42 | $14.5 | 43 | 1 |
| 6 | Braxton Garrett | 43 | $14.5 | 40 | -3 |
| 6 | Tyler Wells | 44 | $14.0 | 45 | 1 |
| 6 | Andrew Abbott | 45 | $13.5 | 48 | 3 |
| 6 | Bryce Miller | 46 | $13.5 | 51 | 5 |
| 6 | Tanner Bibee | 47 | $13.5 | 53 | 6 |
| 6 | James Paxton | 48 | $13.0 | 47 | -1 |
| 6 | Bailey Ober | 49 | $12.0 | 52 | 3 |
| 6 | Kyle Bradish | 50 | $11.0 | 55 | 5 |
| 6 | Jose Berrios | 51 | $10.5 | 54 | 3 |
| 6 | Max Fried | 52 | $10.5 | 57 | 5 |
| 6 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 53 | $10.0 | 58 | 5 |
| 6 | Brandon Woodruff | 54 | $10.0 | 60 | 6 |
| 6 | Kenta Maeda | 55 | $10.0 | -- | -- |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | 56 | $10.0 | 50 | -6 |
| 6 | Lucas Giolito | 57 | $9.5 | 49 | -8 |
| 6 | Cristian Javier | 58 | $9.0 | 42 | -16 |
| 6 | Reid Detmers | 59 | $8.5 | 56 | -3 |
| 7 | Andrew Heaney | 60 | $8.0 | 59 | -1 |
| 7 | Bryce Elder | 61 | $8.0 | 61 | 0 |
| 7 | Alex Cobb | 62 | $8.0 | -- | -- |
| 7 | Taijuan Walker | 63 | $8.0 | 72 | 9 |
| 7 | Nestor Cortes Jr. | 64 | $7.0 | -- | -- |
| 7 | Jack Flaherty | 65 | $6.0 | 63 | -2 |
| 7 | Tony Gonsolin | 66 | $6.0 | 65 | -1 |
| 7 | Merrill Kelly | 67 | $6.0 | 69 | 2 |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 68 | $5.5 | 73 | 5 |
| 7 | MacKenzie Gore | 69 | $5.0 | 70 | 1 |
| 7 | Brayan Bello | 70 | $5.0 | 79 | 9 |
| 7 | Tarik Skubal | 71 | $4.5 | 80 | 9 |
| 8 | Alek Manoah | 72 | $4.5 | 64 | -8 |
| 8 | Hunter Greene | 73 | $4.5 | 68 | -5 |
| 8 | Taj Bradley | 74 | $4.5 | 66 | -8 |
| 8 | Bryan Woo | 75 | $4.0 | 78 | 3 |
| 8 | Ranger Suarez | 76 | $4.0 | 71 | -5 |
| 8 | Eury Perez | 77 | $4.0 | 75 | -2 |
| 8 | J.P. France | 78 | $4.0 | 76 | -2 |
| 8 | Griffin Canning | 79 | $3.5 | 81 | 2 |
| 8 | Michael Lorenzen | 80 | $3.5 | -- | -- |
| 8 | Grayson Rodriguez | 81 | $3.0 | 101 | 20 |
| 8 | Nick Pivetta | 82 | $3.0 | 98 | 16 |
| 8 | Yusei Kikuchi | 83 | $2.5 | 88 | 5 |
| 8 | Jameson Taillon | 84 | $2.5 | 82 | -2 |
| 8 | Michael Kopech | 85 | $2.0 | 83 | -2 |
| 8 | Logan Allen | 86 | $2.0 | 84 | -2 |
| 8 | Domingo German | 87 | $2.0 | 85 | -2 |
| 8 | Edward Cabrera | 88 | $2.0 | -- | -- |
| 8 | Patrick Sandoval | 89 | $2.0 | 97 | 8 |
| 8 | Chris Sale | 90 | $1.5 | 87 | -3 |
| 8 | Kyle Hendricks | 91 | $1.5 | 90 | -1 |
| 8 | Seth Lugo | 92 | $1.5 | 95 | 3 |
| 9 | Miles Mikolas | 93 | $1.5 | 86 | -7 |
| 9 | Kutter Crawford | 94 | $1.0 | 89 | -5 |
| 9 | Dane Dunning | 95 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | JP Sears | 96 | $1.0 | 93 | -3 |
| 9 | Josiah Gray | 97 | $1.0 | 96 | -1 |
| 9 | Matt Manning | 98 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Brady Singer | 99 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Luis Medina | 100 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Brandon Pfaadt | 101 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
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