RADIO
Welcome to summer, RotoBallers, as we crank up the heat with another edition of my weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. The temperature is finally climbing here in New England as the fantasy season's third month hits its home stretch. See how your pitching staff stacks up against my two cents going into July with the weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
As usual, the tiers are the most important piece of the puzzle, though the position within them is still informative! We've added the previous week's position and the change (Delta) since then. Do note that I'm writing this before most of Tuesday night's games finish.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and I try to present key injured pitchers where I have them for the rest of the season. Let's jump in with nearly three months of the season in the books.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Bryce Miller took on doubt after the Yankees and Rangers shelled him in back-to-back outings, but the rookie has stabilized of late. He’s won his last two starts with only one earned run in each tilt, allowing just five combined hits over those 13 innings. Shutting down the White Sox isn’t terribly impressive these days, but he still converted the opportunity. Consider that payback for slogging through a matchup with Texas.
-Eury Perez appears to have pitched himself into an extended timeline after reports about an impending shutdown swirled. Miami is contending for a Wild Card spot and they’d love to have Perez available for a postseason push. The 20-year-old has thrown 76 innings after only throwing 77 last season. Just take each upcoming start as a gift and don’t act surprised if the rug gets pulled.
-Braxton Garrett should maintain his place in the rotation with Trevor Rogers’ setback and Edward Cabrera’s new injury. And the aforementioned likely shutdown for Perez probably comes as one of those guys is set to return.
Garrett has done fantastic in upping his strikeouts while trimming walks in two straight seasons. From 2021’s limited sample (34 IP) to 2022, Garrett’s K-BB% soared from 7.5% to 17.7%. And now that mark has risen to 21.7%. His .330 BABIP is right there with his .334 career mark so don’t look for some luck-infused excuse. Continue riding the wave in Miami.
-Taijuan Walker was fading as June began but his last three outings have seen him tear through the Tigers, Dodgers, and A’s. Not the tallest task, but blanking the Dodgers over five innings is worth something. But what if I told you his Statcast page had his heater sitting at 94-95 mph in those three starts after it had previously fallen to 92 mph?
There is a similar jump for his entire arsenal. His fastball, sinker, splitter, and cutter all have a bit more zip. The four-seamer and sinker have the same velo, while the splitter and cutter also pair up around 89-90 mph. This usually helps him play them off of one another, though he did throw the cutter at a season-high 32% in his last outing.
Perhaps he’s identified a preferable sequencing, only time will tell. But there is an identifiable change under the hood behind the recent success. Don’t just scoff at him facing Oakland and chalk it up to variance.
-Gavin Williams is now scheduled to make his MLB debut on Wednesday against Oakland. The 23-year-old prospect quickly rose to Triple-A after torching Double-A (0.63 ERA, 20 Ks in 14 ⅓ IP). He’s continued to show strong whiffs with 61 punchouts in 46 frames at the higher level but has also seen his walk rate climb to 11.5%. He’ll need to keep that in check, but at least Progressive Field is a pitcher-friendly park. No matter what, the K upside is tremendous.
-Brayan Bello has quietly held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in all 10 starts since his ugly 2023 debut on April 17. He’s crushed the Yankees twice in a row, which you can say is fortunate scheduling, but he gets the White Sox next. Keep on enjoying the matchups, I’d say. The 24-year-old has a 2.86 ERA since, though the 3.88 FIP/3.82 xFIP are a bit more realistic moving forward.
He has the usual elite 59% groundball rate going for him, yet a .267 BABIP is generous for a Red Sox team sporting a -18 OAA (Outs Above Average). That’s the worst in baseball, folks. Debate the merits of defensive metrics as you like, but I think we can all agree that a team grading out as the worst probably has some traction.
-Kyle Hendricks isn’t winning any strikeout titles, but he has only walked six and allowed one home run over his first five starts of 2023 (28 ⅓ IP). His form had fallen in 2021 and ‘22, but his stellar seasons between 2014-20 were built on inducing crummy contact and painting corners. Across his 10-year career, Hendricks has never had a BABIP above .300 against him.
However, I’d caution you from buying into the surface stats too much, as his Statcast page shows the expected stats far more in line with ‘21 and ‘22 versus a renaissance back to his prime days. I know xStats can take some time to marinate, but his current xERA of 4.53 is way ahead of the 2.86 ERA. Compare that to 2022’s 5.07 xERA (4.80 ERA) and 2021’s 4.95 xERA (4.77 ERA). Just be careful out there.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 13
| Tier | Name | Rank | $Value | Last Rank | Delta |
| 1 | Spencer Strider | 1 | $43.5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | Shane McClanahan | 2 | $43.0 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 3 | $42.0 | 1 | -2 |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 4 | $42.0 | 4 | 0 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 5 | $41.0 | 5 | 0 |
| 2 | Kevin Gausman | 6 | $40.0 | 6 | 0 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 7 | $39.0 | 9 | 2 |
| 2 | Zac Gallen | 8 | $38.0 | 8 | 0 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 9 | $36.5 | 7 | -2 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 10 | $36.0 | 10 | 0 |
| 2 | Framber Valdez | 11 | $35.0 | 12 | 1 |
| 2 | Cristian Javier | 12 | $34.0 | 11 | -1 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 13 | $31.5 | 13 | 0 |
| 2 | Nathan Eovaldi | 14 | $31.5 | 14 | 0 |
| 2 | Aaron Nola | 15 | $31.0 | 15 | 0 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 16 | $29.5 | 16 | 0 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | 17 | $28.5 | 17 | 0 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 18 | $28.5 | 19 | 1 |
| 3 | Joe Ryan | 19 | $27.0 | 18 | -1 |
| 3 | Julio Urias | 20 | $26.0 | 20 | 0 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 21 | $25.0 | 22 | 1 |
| 3 | Joe Musgrove | 22 | $24.0 | 23 | 1 |
| 3 | George Kirby | 23 | $23.5 | 27 | 4 |
| 3 | Shane Bieber | 24 | $24.0 | 24 | 0 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | 25 | $23.0 | 30 | 5 |
| 3 | Blake Snell | 26 | $22.0 | 41 | 15 |
| 3 | Chris Bassitt | 27 | $21.5 | 25 | -2 |
| 4 | Sandy Alcantara | 28 | $19.5 | 21 | -7 |
| 4 | Pablo Lopez | 29 | $19.5 | 29 | 0 |
| 4 | Hunter Brown | 30 | $19.0 | 31 | 1 |
| 4 | Marcus Stroman | 31 | $19.0 | 37 | 6 |
| 4 | Sonny Gray | 32 | $18.0 | 26 | -6 |
| 4 | Jon Gray | 33 | $17.0 | 34 | 1 |
| 4 | Mitch Keller | 34 | $17.0 | 35 | 1 |
| 4 | Zach Eflin | 35 | $17.0 | 36 | 1 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 36 | $16.5 | 28 | -8 |
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 37 | $16.5 | 38 | 1 |
| 5 | Jordan Montgomery | 38 | $16.0 | 40 | 2 |
| 5 | Charlie Morton | 39 | $15.5 | 43 | 4 |
| 5 | Bobby Miller | 40 | $15.0 | 44 | 4 |
| 5 | Andrew Heaney | 41 | $15.0 | 45 | 4 |
| 5 | Justin Steele | 42 | $14.5 | 46 | 4 |
| 5 | Bryce Miller | 43 | $14.5 | 48 | 5 |
| 5 | Carlos Rodon | 44 | $14.0 | 50 | 6 |
| 6 | Tanner Bibee | 45 | $13.5 | 39 | -6 |
| 6 | Nestor Cortes | 46 | $13.5 | 47 | 1 |
| 6 | Freddy Peralta | 47 | $13.5 | 49 | 2 |
| 6 | Brandon Woodruff | 48 | $13.0 | 51 | 3 |
| 6 | Luis Severino | 49 | $12.0 | 42 | -7 |
| 6 | Merrill Kelly | 50 | $11.0 | 52 | 2 |
| 6 | Michael Wacha | 51 | $10.5 | 56 | 5 |
| 6 | Kodai Senga | 52 | $10.5 | 53 | 1 |
| 6 | Michael Kopech | 53 | $10.0 | 57 | 4 |
| 6 | Tyler Wells | 54 | $10.0 | 58 | 4 |
| 6 | Lucas Giolito | 55 | $10.0 | 59 | 4 |
| 6 | Andrew Abbott | 56 | $10.0 | 61 | 5 |
| 6 | James Paxton | 57 | $9.5 | 62 | 5 |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | 58 | $9.0 | 64 | 6 |
| 6 | Eury Perez | 59 | $8.5 | 68 | 9 |
| 7 | Bryce Elder | 60 | $8.0 | 60 | 0 |
| 7 | Tony Gonsolin | 61 | $8.0 | 63 | 2 |
| 7 | Jose Berrios | 62 | $8.0 | 66 | 4 |
| 7 | Bailey Ober | 63 | $8.0 | 67 | 4 |
| 7 | Logan Allen | 64 | $7.0 | 55 | -9 |
| 7 | Hunter Greene | 65 | $6.0 | 32 | -33 |
| 7 | Taj Bradley | 66 | $6.0 | 71 | 5 |
| 7 | Jack Flaherty | 67 | $6.0 | 72 | 5 |
| 7 | Braxton Garrett | 68 | $5.5 | 77 | 9 |
| 7 | MacKenzie Gore | 69 | $5.0 | 69 | 0 |
| 7 | Reid Detmers | 70 | $5.0 | 79 | 9 |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 71 | $4.5 | -- | -- |
| 7 | Garrett Whitlock | 72 | $4.5 | 82 | 10 |
| 7 | Taijuan Walker | 73 | $4.5 | 86 | 13 |
| 7 | Ranger Suarez | 74 | $4.5 | 99 | 25 |
| 8 | Drew Smyly | 75 | $4.0 | 73 | -2 |
| 8 | J.P. France | 76 | $4.0 | 74 | -2 |
| 8 | Kyle Bradish | 77 | $4.0 | 75 | -2 |
| 8 | Domingo German | 78 | $4.0 | 76 | -2 |
| 8 | Miles Mikolas | 79 | $3.5 | 78 | -1 |
| 8 | Alex Cobb | 80 | $3.5 | 54 | -26 |
| 8 | Max Fried | 81 | $3.0 | 85 | 4 |
| 8 | Griffin Canning | 82 | $3.0 | 87 | 5 |
| 8 | Jameson Taillon | 83 | $2.5 | 81 | -2 |
| 8 | Anthony DeSclafani | 84 | $2.5 | 84 | 0 |
| 8 | Josiah Gray | 85 | $2.0 | 80 | -5 |
| 8 | Chris Sale | 86 | $2.0 | 88 | 2 |
| 8 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 87 | $2.0 | 89 | 2 |
| 9 | Patrick Sandoval | 88 | $2.0 | 90 | 2 |
| 9 | Johan Oviedo | 89 | $2.0 | 91 | 2 |
| 9 | Brayan Bello | 90 | $1.5 | 98 | 8 |
| 9 | AJ Smith-Shawver | 91 | $1.5 | 93 | 2 |
| 9 | Kutter Crawford | 92 | $1.5 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Ben Lively | 93 | $1.5 | 92 | -1 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | 94 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Michael Lorenzen | 95 | $1.0 | 94 | -1 |
| 9 | JP Sears | 96 | $1.0 | 96 | 0 |
| 9 | Dane Dunning | 97 | $1.0 | 95 | -2 |
| 9 | Trevor Richards | 98 | $1.0 | 100 | 2 |
| 9 | Kyle Hendricks | 99 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Wade Miley | 100 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Yusei Kikuchi | 101 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
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