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Nick Mariano's updated fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings for Week 12 (2023). Baller Ranks is a weekly rankings list for the top-101 starting pitchers.
Howdy, RotoBallers, and welcome to yet another edition of my weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. We're at June's midpoint and the season's halfway mark is closing in on us. What does the second half have in store? Let's see where I stand with the weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
As usual, the tiers are the most important piece of the puzzle, though the position within them is still informative! We've added the previous week's position and the change (Delta) since then. Do note that I'm writing this before most of Tuesday night's games finish.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and I try to present key injured pitchers where I have them for the rest of the season. Let's hop in with over two months of the season behind us!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Justin Verlander’s current .280 xBA on four-seamers is easily his worst mark in recent memory, albeit with the small sample at work. Batters haven’t mustered a hard-hit rate above 50% against it since tracking began in 2017 (it is currently 52.9%). It hasn’t been a whiff machine in a while but his command isn’t pinpointing it high in the zone as consistently.
The future Hall of Famer has also “struggled” with utilizing his slider as a putaway dagger. I use quotes because he’s still good but it isn’t what we expect from JV. Per Statcast, his slider had a PutAway% of 26.8% in 2022. That stands at 20.8% in ‘23. His walk rate with the slidepiece has risen from 2.6% in ‘22 to 8.2% this season. And his overall walk rate is up at 7.8% (it hasn’t been above 5% since 2017).
I don’t mean to get so nitty and granular but I hate just spouting off things that most can glean from the game log. And it gives you some nuggets to look out for should you watch their starts for yourself! I’d hate to see age ruin Verlander’s final years but it comes for us all.
-Joe Ryan had seven or more strikeouts in six of his first nine starts in 2023, eclipsing 10 on three occasions. His 2.25 ERA (2.32 FIP) in that window was fueled by an astounding 66/8 K/BB ratio, but his form has slipped since. The next four starts have yielded a 4.57 ERA (3.92 FIP) with an unassuming 18/7 K/BB in 21 ⅔ IP, but most of the damage came from one horrid day in Houston (4 IP, 5 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 6 K).
I will note his FIP in the other three starts checked in under the 3.00 mark. But it’s the slip in strikeouts that has us thinking. Ryan’s ability to generate swings and misses in the zone has dipped. The rate of such on his four-seamers alone exceeded 23% in seven of his first nine starts, reaching as high as 42% in his May 13 outing. But he’s cracked 20% on that just once in those last four games.
-James Paxton just struck out eight Rockies while lowering his ERA to 3.09 with six shutout innings. The southpaw’s ratios are excellent, but it’s the 44 strikeouts in 32 innings that really elevates his fantasy status. As ever, Paxton throws his fastball around 55-60% of the time, though his current 29% whiff rate on it would be a career-best mark.
Batters are hitting no more than .200 on his secondary offerings (curveball, cutter, changeup) and despite hitter-friendly Fenway as his home, Paxton looks sharper than ever. We may never fully trust his health but faith in his form has solidified.
-Kodai Senga has a volatile command that has given us quite the Jekyll and Hyde act as of late. But his 28.3% strikeout rate is ninth out of 81 pitchers with at least 60 innings to their name in 2023. The counterpunch is his 14.3% walk rate, which ranks worst among the same pool.
He and the Ghost Fork won’t win any WHIP titles, and you may shout in celebration just as loud as you cry in agony on a start-by-start basis. If consistency improves, then the ceiling is tremendous. Build around him with some ratio stabilizers if you can.
-Trevor Richards had a sad 2022 campaign, compiling a 5.34 ERA/1.44 WHIP despite a strong 29.2% strikeout rate and 3.56 SIERA. Lady Luck’s pendulum has presented Richards with wild swings and ‘22 was no exception, as his BABIP was .312 with a career-worst 64.7% strand rate. His BABIP was .201 in ‘21 and a whopping .358 in the shortened 2020 season.
But his current BABIP sits at .286, a curiously middling mark, and just look at the stellar stats he’s enjoyed alongside it. Richards has an elite 38.9% strikeout rate and 2.69 ERA behind his 3.30 ERA, compiled largely out of the bullpen.
Toronto had him go three innings as a starter (in Alek Manoah’s spot) and he dazzled as much as one can in three frames. Seven out of 11 batters faced were struck out as he pushed out to 53 pitches. We’ll see how his form holds as he stretches out, or if Toronto keeps him away from lineups getting a second turn. Regardless, his K potential is too loud to ignore. We love that changeup!
-Julio Teheran had posted walk rates above 10% in each of his previous four seasons (2018-21). This assisted his downward spiral into what I believe we all thought was the end of his MLB career. And yet, like a phoenix rising out of Arizona, Teheran is back with a 3.3% walk rate over four outings.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 12
| Tier | Name | Rank | $Value | Last Rank | Delta |
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 1 | $42.0 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Spencer Strider | 2 | $41.0 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | Shane McClanahan | 3 | $41.0 | 3 | 0 |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 4 | $43.0 | 4 | 0 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 5 | $41.0 | 6 | 1 |
| 2 | Kevin Gausman | 6 | $39.0 | 7 | 1 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 7 | $38.0 | 8 | 1 |
| 2 | Zac Gallen | 8 | $37.0 | 5 | -3 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 9 | $36.5 | 9 | 0 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 10 | $36.0 | 10 | 0 |
| 2 | Cristian Javier | 11 | $34.0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2 | Framber Valdez | 12 | $34.0 | 12 | 0 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 13 | $31.5 | 13 | 0 |
| 2 | Nathan Eovaldi | 14 | $31.0 | 15 | 1 |
| 2 | Aaron Nola | 15 | $31.0 | 18 | 3 |
| 2 | Yu Darvish | 16 | $29.5 | 17 | 1 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | 17 | $28.5 | 14 | -3 |
| 3 | Joe Ryan | 18 | $28.5 | 16 | -2 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 19 | $27.0 | 19 | 0 |
| 3 | Julio Urias | 20 | $26.0 | 20 | 0 |
| 3 | Sandy Alcantara | 21 | $25.0 | 21 | 0 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 22 | $24.0 | 26 | 4 |
| 3 | Joe Musgrove | 23 | $23.5 | 23 | 0 |
| 3 | Shane Bieber | 24 | $24.0 | 27 | 3 |
| 3 | Chris Bassitt | 25 | $23.0 | 28 | 3 |
| 3 | Sonny Gray | 26 | $22.0 | 22 | -4 |
| 3 | George Kirby | 27 | $21.5 | 25 | -2 |
| 4 | Logan Gilbert | 28 | $20.5 | 24 | -4 |
| 4 | Pablo Lopez | 29 | $19.5 | 30 | 1 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 30 | $19.0 | 31 | 1 |
| 4 | Hunter Brown | 31 | $19.0 | 32 | 1 |
| 4 | Hunter Greene | 32 | $18.0 | 34 | 2 |
| 4 | Triston McKenzie | 33 | $17.0 | 35 | 2 |
| 4 | Jon Gray | 34 | $17.0 | 37 | 3 |
| 4 | Mitch Keller | 35 | $17.0 | 33 | -2 |
| 4 | Zach Eflin | 36 | $17.0 | 38 | 2 |
| 5 | Marcus Stroman | 37 | $16.5 | 40 | 3 |
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 38 | $16.0 | 36 | -2 |
| 5 | Tanner Bibee | 39 | $15.5 | 44 | 5 |
| 5 | Jordan Montgomery | 40 | $15.0 | 45 | 5 |
| 5 | Blake Snell | 41 | $15.0 | 64 | 23 |
| 5 | Luis Severino | 42 | $14.5 | 29 | -13 |
| 5 | Charlie Morton | 43 | $14.5 | 48 | 5 |
| 5 | Bobby Miller | 44 | $14.0 | 59 | 15 |
| 5 | Andrew Heaney | 45 | $13.5 | 39 | -6 |
| 5 | Justin Steele | 46 | $13.5 | 47 | 1 |
| 5 | Nestor Cortes Jr. | 47 | $13.5 | 42 | -5 |
| 5 | Bryce Miller | 48 | $13.0 | 46 | -2 |
| 5 | Freddy Peralta | 49 | $12.0 | 43 | -6 |
| 6 | Carlos Rodon | 50 | $11.0 | 49 | -1 |
| 6 | Brandon Woodruff | 51 | $10.5 | 50 | -1 |
| 6 | Merrill Kelly | 52 | $10.5 | 53 | 1 |
| 6 | Kodai Senga | 53 | $10.0 | 56 | 3 |
| 6 | Alex Cobb | 54 | $10.0 | 55 | 1 |
| 6 | Logan Allen | 55 | $10.0 | 52 | -3 |
| 6 | Michael Wacha | 56 | $10.0 | 58 | 2 |
| 6 | Michael Kopech | 57 | $9.5 | 60 | 3 |
| 6 | Tyler Wells | 58 | $9.0 | 61 | 3 |
| 6 | Lucas Giolito | 59 | $8.5 | 63 | 4 |
| 6 | Bryce Elder | 60 | $8.0 | 57 | -3 |
| 6 | Andrew Abbott | 61 | $8.0 | 65 | 4 |
| 6 | James Paxton | 62 | $8.0 | 70 | 8 |
| 6 | Tony Gonsolin | 63 | $8.0 | 62 | -1 |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | 64 | $7.0 | 54 | -10 |
| 6 | Edward Cabrera | 65 | $6.0 | 68 | 3 |
| 7 | Jose Berrios | 66 | $6.0 | 67 | 1 |
| 7 | Bailey Ober | 67 | $6.0 | 66 | -1 |
| 7 | Eury Perez | 68 | $5.5 | 51 | -17 |
| 7 | MacKenzie Gore | 69 | $5.0 | 69 | 0 |
| 7 | Louie Varland | 70 | $5.0 | 71 | 1 |
| 7 | Taj Bradley | 71 | $4.5 | 72 | 1 |
| 7 | Jack Flaherty | 72 | $4.5 | 74 | 2 |
| 7 | Drew Smyly | 73 | $4.5 | 73 | 0 |
| 7 | J.P. France | 74 | $4.5 | 75 | 1 |
| 7 | Kyle Bradish | 75 | $4.0 | 76 | 1 |
| 7 | Domingo German | 76 | $4.0 | 77 | 1 |
| 7 | Braxton Garrett | 77 | $4.0 | 84 | 7 |
| 7 | Miles Mikolas | 78 | $4.0 | 86 | 8 |
| 8 | Reid Detmers | 79 | $3.5 | 78 | -1 |
| 8 | Josiah Gray | 80 | $3.5 | 79 | -1 |
| 8 | Jameson Taillon | 81 | $3.0 | 81 | 0 |
| 8 | Garrett Whitlock | 82 | $3.0 | 82 | 0 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 83 | $2.5 | 83 | 0 |
| 8 | Anthony DeSclafani | 84 | $2.5 | 80 | -4 |
| 8 | Max Fried | 85 | $2.0 | 88 | 3 |
| 8 | Taijuan Walker | 86 | $2.0 | 101 | 15 |
| 8 | Griffin Canning | 87 | $2.0 | 97 | 10 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 88 | $2.0 | 41 | -47 |
| 9 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 89 | $2.0 | 85 | -4 |
| 9 | Patrick Sandoval | 90 | $1.5 | 87 | -3 |
| 9 | Johan Oviedo | 91 | $1.5 | 90 | -1 |
| 9 | Ben Lively | 92 | $1.5 | 91 | -1 |
| 9 | AJ Smith-Shawver | 93 | $1.5 | 98 | 5 |
| 9 | Michael Lorenzen | 94 | $1.0 | 93 | -1 |
| 9 | Dane Dunning | 95 | $1.0 | 92 | -3 |
| 9 | JP Sears | 96 | $1.0 | 96 | 0 |
| 9 | Martin Perez | 97 | $1.0 | 95 | -2 |
| 9 | Brayan Bello | 98 | $1.0 | 99 | 1 |
| 9 | Ranger Suarez | 99 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Trevor Richards | 100 | $1.0 | -- | -- |
| 9 | Matthew Liberatore | 101 | $1.0 | 94 | -7 |
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