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It's time for another rest-of-season heat check with a weekly top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. Two months of baseball are in the wind, yet it feels like we've only just begun. Let's make the most of the remaining race with the Week 10 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
June's approach means it is high time to let go of some preconceived notions and allow yourself to read into the data, not the name. Let's dive in and see what we've got moving forward with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. This week includes some fun buy-high fellas. For now, let's dive into my top 101 healthy SPs and build a winner.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Luis Castillo and George Kirby are used to brighter days. Castillo started ice cold with four earned in each of his first three outings before ripping off seven consecutive quality starts. His latest start broke the streak, but it was against the red-hot Yankees. He’s survived an ugly 20:10 K:BB over 23 ⅔ IP this May after a superior 49:8 mark in March/April. The resulting 10% K-BB rate and 5.03 FIP for this month is troubling, but Castillo’s track record earns more time near the top. (Late-night addition: He fared well after I wrote this earlier on Tuesday, keep the faith!)
Kirby is still throwing strikes but has struggled with the longball of late. The 26-year-old gave up two homers in his first seven starts but has now surrendered seven HRs in his last four trips to the hill. The overall 9% barrel rate is up from 7.5% last year even though the overall hard-hit rate is down six percentage points, per Statcast. He’s already given up more homers on the slider (three) than he did in all of 2023 (two) despite over triple the volume.
Kirby’s mistakes may be rare but hitters are being aggressive and Kirby isn’t capitalizing on 0-1 counts. Per BBRef, hitters have a .687 OPS after 0-1 compared to a .603 OPS after 1-0. Last year, Kirby held them to a .555 OPS on 0-1 counts compared to .836 after 1-0. Turn the screws with the advantage! And the Meatball Swing rate is up nearly 10 percentage points compared to ‘23, with the zone-swing rate up over three percentage points. Kirby managers know they’re sacrificing strikeout upside by rostering him but ERA variance hurts more as a result. (Update: Kirby pitched well against HOU, hope springs eternal. However, now his Home/Road splits look more exaggerated, with 8 HR allowed/16 XBH/17% K rate in 32 road innings versus 1 HR/8 XBH/29.2% K rate in 36 1/3 IP at home.)
-Justin Steele had given up 15 earned in a three-start stretch in mid-May, serving up six homers in those 16 frames. The southpaw had missed a month due to a left hamstring strain and had some rust to shake off. One hopes his scoreless seven innings against the Brewers on May 27 with a season-high eight strikeouts is turning the page. He’s maintained strong control (5.3% BB rate) and typically suppresses homers (career 0.94 HR/9), so the long-term outlook remains healthy.
-Ben Brown continues his outstanding run to open his MLB career with seven no-hit innings and 10 strikeouts against the Brewers on Tuesday. I typically don’t include Tuesday as I write this but no-hit bids are special! The 24-year-old has served as a long reliever/swingman for an oft-injured Cubs rotation, but now we have to put our foot down regarding talent vs. opportunity. He’s allowed one hit with 16 strikeouts over his last 11 innings!
On the surface, the Cubs rotation won’t have room for Brown once Jordan Wicks is back, which is likely in a week following one final rehab start. Shota Imanaga is an ace. The aforementioned Steele isn’t ceding any ground. Javier Assad has faded a bit but has earned his slot. Jameson Taillon has a 2.58 ERA despite a 4.38 FIP/4.62 SIERA. Can we get a six-man rotation? Brown is worth rolling out even as a long reliever, but his value skyrockets in the rotation.
Ben Brown’s performance tonight made him the first MLB pitcher age 24 or younger with a start of at least 7 IP, 0 H, 0 R and at least 10 strikeouts since Justin Verlander's no-hitter on June 12, 2007 vs. MIL.
He’s first Cub to put up that line at that age since at least 1901.
— Meghan Montemurro (@M_Montemurro) May 29, 2024
-David Festa gets a special prospect shoutout after logging five innings of one-hit ball with another eight strikeouts. He’s struck out 40 in his last five starts (23 ⅓ IP) with a manageable eight walks. His overall 13.9 K/9 leads all Triple-A SPs aged 25 or under (min. 100 batters faced) who aren’t named Paul Skenes or Chayce McDermott. The Twins have three great SPs and then Simeon Woods Richardson and Chris Paddack are not sure things in the No. 4 and 5 slots. Louie Varland hasn’t recaptured his form at Triple-A so don’t lose sight of the 6-foot-6 Festa.
David Festa struck out seven consecutive batters in five scoreless innings yesterday for the @StPaulSaints in the win⚔️
5 IP / 1 H / 0 R / 1 BB / 8 K
The New Jersey native has a 36.8% K rate this season which is the highest of any pitcher in Triple-A (min. 150 BF)‼️#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/S6vcV9lYzk
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) May 26, 2024
**Several pitchers with mediocre track records are showing true signs of improvement over a (relatively) lengthy period in 2024. Depending on how savvy their manager is in your environment, these may represent a buy-high candidate in your league. Some strong arms with iffy perceptions due to recent years:
-Ranger Suarez - Consistent command is there. Walks are down under 6%. He's running his sinker into left-handed batters and changeup away. Suarez just “struggled” at Coors.
-Jack Flaherty - Posting a career-best 14.9% swinging-strike rate and an elite 3.7% BB rate, but a 3.84 ERA is still far above the 2.27 SIERA. The first-strike rate is above 60% for the first time since 2020.
-MacKenzie Gore - Ramping an extra two ticks on the four-seamer, which is averaging nearly 97 mph. Throwing fewer heaters with more confidence in the changeup. Whiffs are up, walks are down. And fewer grooved pitches, too (Meatball rate down to 5.8% from 8.1%). His average exit velo allowed is down three ticks from ‘23.
-Hunter Greene - He was such a highly touted prospect where modest success still feels like underperforming. Greene traded whiffs for command but is still largely a two-pitch arm (fastball, slider). The expected average on four-seamer was .235 last year and is down to .167 in ‘24 (xSLG is .266 from .441!).
-Clarke Schmidt - (Update, he's out for the next month or two so disregard.) Has picked up a mile per hour on his cutter and sinker while dipping the sweeper by a tick (and upping the sweeper’s spin rate by ~100 rpm). The gap has increased effectiveness all around.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 10
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 0 | 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 1 | $44.00 | 44 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | 2 | $42.50 | 42.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 3 | $42.50 | 42 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 2 | Tarik Skubal | 4 | $41.00 | 41 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 2 | Chris Sale | 5 | $41.00 | 39 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 2 | Cole Ragans | 6 | $37.00 | 36 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 2 | Luis Castillo | 7 | $37.00 | 38 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 4 | 2 | Shota Imanaga | 8 | $36.00 | 34 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 3 | Jared Jones | 9 | $35.00 | 35 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 10 | $35.00 | 35 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 3 | Max Fried | 11 | $34.00 | 32.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 6 | 3 | Joe Ryan | 12 | $33.00 | 28 | 5.0 ▲ |
| -7 | 3 | Pablo Lopez | 13 | $33.00 | 39 | -6.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 14 | $32.50 | 31 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 15 | $31.00 | 30 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 3 | Kevin Gausman | 16 | $31.00 | 25.5 | 5.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 3 | Logan Webb | 17 | $30.00 | 31 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 4 | 3 | Kyle Bradish | 18 | $30.00 | 25 | 5.0 ▲ |
| -10 | 4 | George Kirby | 19 | $30.00 | 36 | -6.0 ▼ |
| -7 | 4 | Freddy Peralta | 20 | $30.00 | 33 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 4 | Logan Gilbert | 21 | $26.00 | 25.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Grayson Rodriguez | 22 | $25.50 | 25 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Sonny Gray | 23 | $25.50 | 25 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 4 | Dylan Cease | 24 | $25.00 | 28 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 2 | 4 | Jesus Luzardo | 25 | $23.00 | 21 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Garrett Crochet | 26 | $21.50 | 20 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Paul Skenes | 27 | $21.00 | 20 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Ranger Suarez | 28 | $21.00 | 19 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Jack Flaherty | 29 | $21.00 | 19 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -5 | 4 | Bailey Ober | 30 | $21.00 | 23 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -5 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 31 | $20.50 | 21.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 5 | Framber Valdez | 32 | $17.50 | 17.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 5 | Justin Steele | 33 | $17.50 | 17.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 5 | Nick Pivetta | 34 | $17.50 | 17.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 5 | Yusei Kikuchi | 35 | $17.50 | 17.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 5 | 5 | MacKenzie Gore | 36 | $17.50 | 15 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 5 | Bryce Miller | 37 | $17.00 | 17.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 5 | Seth Lugo | 38 | $16.50 | 16.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 5 | Ronel Blanco | 39 | $16.50 | 16.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 5 | Walker Buehler | 40 | $16.00 | 15 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 5 | Tanner Houck | 41 | $16.00 | 15 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 6 | Reynaldo Lopez | 42 | $15.00 | 14.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 6 | Luis Gil | 43 | $15.00 | 14 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 6 | Carlos Rodon | 44 | $14.50 | 14 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 6 | Bryan Woo | 45 | $14.00 | 13 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -9 | 6 | Kutter Crawford | 46 | $14.00 | 17 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 14 | 7 | Hunter Greene | 47 | $12.00 | 8 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 6 | Tanner Bibee | 48 | $12.00 | 11 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 7 | Nestor Cortes | 49 | $12.00 | 10 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -10 | 6 | Michael King | 50 | $12.00 | 16 | -4.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 6 | Cristopher Sanchez | 51 | $11.50 | 12 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 6 | Chris Bassitt | 52 | $10.00 | 10 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 7 | Nick Lodolo | 53 | $10.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 0 | 7 | Ryan Pepiot | 54 | $10.00 | 10 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 55 | $9.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 1 | 7 | Taj Bradley | 56 | $9.00 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -8 | 7 | Christian Scott | 57 | $8.50 | 11 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 7 | Blake Snell | 58 | $8.50 | 9 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 7 | Joe Musgrove | 59 | $8.50 | 9 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 7 | Reese Olson | 60 | $8.50 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 7 | Justin Verlander | 61 | $8.00 | 8 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 7 | Clarke Schmidt | 62 | $8.00 | 7 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 7 | Jordan Hicks | 63 | $8.00 | 7 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 64 | $7.00 | 6 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -5 | 8 | Jose Berrios | 65 | $7.00 | 8.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -7 | 8 | Brayan Bello | 66 | $6.00 | 8.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| 3 | 8 | Erick Fedde | 67 | $6.00 | 5.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 8 | Jordan Montgomery | 68 | $5.50 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 8 | Gavin Stone | 69 | $5.50 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 8 | Brady Singer | 70 | $5.50 | 5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 8 | 8 | Jose Soriano | 71 | $5.00 | 4 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 8 | Javier Assad | 72 | $4.50 | 4 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 8 | Alek Manoah | 73 | $4.00 | 4 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 6 | 8 | Brandon Pfaadt | 74 | $4.00 | 3.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -3 | 8 | Triston McKenzie | 75 | $4.00 | 4.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 8 | Mitch Keller | 76 | $4.00 | 4 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -3 | 8 | Charlie Morton | 77 | $4.00 | 4 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 5 | 9 | Tyler Anderson | 78 | $4.00 | 2.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 9 | Andrew Abbott | 79 | $4.00 | 2 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 9 | Alec Marsh | 80 | $3.50 | 2 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 10 | 9 | Michael Wacha | 81 | $3.00 | 1.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 9 | Braxton Garrett | 82 | $3.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 10 | 9 | Robert Gasser | 83 | $2.50 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| N/A | 9 | Cole Irvin | 84 | $2.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 4 | 9 | Zack Littell | 85 | $2.00 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 9 | Ryan Weathers | 86 | $2.00 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 9 | Matt Waldron | 87 | $1.50 | N/A | N/A |
| 12 | 9 | Tylor Megill | 88 | $1.50 | 1 | 0.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 9 | Cal Quantrill | 89 | $1.50 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 9 | Ben Lively | 90 | $1.50 | N/A | N/A |
| 10 | 10 | Hunter Brown | 91 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -26 | 10 | Casey Mize | 92 | $1.00 | 6 | -5.0 ▼ |
| -15 | 10 | Andrew Heaney | 93 | $1.00 | 4 | -3.0 ▼ |
| -7 | 10 | Aaron Civale | 94 | $1.00 | 2 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -5 | 10 | Sean Manaea | 95 | $1.00 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 1 | 10 | Luis Severino | 96 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Chris Paddack | 97 | $1.00 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Michael Lorenzen | 98 | $1.00 | N/A | N/A |
| -5 | 10 | Spencer Arrighetti | 99 | $1.00 | 1 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Mitchell Parker | 100 | $1.00 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 101 | $1.00 | N/A | N/A |
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