MLB Hitter Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for xISO (Week 18)

August 8, 2022

Statcast batter leaders and fallers in Week 18 of the 2022 MLB season according to xISO. Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

You want power, or more specifically, you need power on your fantasy baseball team. If that is the case, you need to focus on a player who is capable of doing things that lead to extra-base hits, especially home runs. One of the sabermetrics that specifically focuses on pure power is ISO (Isolated Power). The expected version of this available of BaseballSavant is cleverly labeled xISO.

Smart analysts like Alex Chamberlain have been exploring this metric for a while and I think he explained its value best several years ago: "So: what makes for a good power hitter? Well, he should hit the ball hard. He should hit the ball in the air, too, so it goes over infielders’ heads or, better yet, over outfield walls. And he should pull the ball, because the shortest distance for a home run to travel is along the foul line." Makes sense to me.

This week, we'll check out the xISO leaders and ignore the superstars to see who might be packing more power than we thought. After you're done here, check out all of our Statcast analysis for fantasy baseball at RotoBaller, including our weekly Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds articles each week.

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xISO Leaderboard

Notable Players

Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays - .329 xISO

Wut? Jansen as a top-three raw power hitter is one of the more surprising developments north of the border, outside of the team acquiring a non-vaccinated Whit Merrifield that is.

Jansen posted mediocre xISO numbers in 2019 and 2020 but did post a .250 ISO last season over 184 at-bats. Perhaps his constant injuries and timeshare situation behind the plate have caused us to overlook his development as a power-hitting catcher. Jansen has nine HR and 23 RBI in 105 at-bats with an impressive .596 xSLG that would rank among the elite sluggers in the game.

Jansen certainly won't hit for average - his current .219 AVG is higher than his .213 career mark. We're talking catchers here, though. The bar is pretty low. Jansen hasn't gone deep since July 22nd but if he can carve out more playing time in that Jays lineup, he could be worth starting down the stretch even in single-catcher leagues.

Darick Hall, Philadelphia Phillies - .269 xISO

Good timing here as Hall just swatted two more homers on Sunday afternoon, giving him eight HR in 103 AB.

Long Ball Darick Hall 💥💥

2 HRs today

He has 8 HRs and 15 RBIs in his 29 games with Phils
pic.twitter.com/EY4B4cL0zg

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) August 7, 2022

So did all those FAB dollars thrown toward Hall in competitive leagues pay off? For the time being, yes. He's flexed massive power and we know in the Philly lineup he will always have the green light to swing for the fences.

The biggest concern is Bryce Harper returning as a DH only and taking Hall's lineup spot. Rhys Hoskins is cemented at 1B and Harper may not take the field in order to prevent further aggravation to the elbow. That's why the team acquired Brandon Marsh to hold down center field.

Whether that happens is hard to say, of course. Harper didn't exactly clarify things when asked how he's progressing.

“I don’t know how my body’s going to react or how my thumb is going to react. We’re still on the same timeline of September-ish."

That means we should have at least a month of Hall in store and possibly the rest of the season if Harper doesn't like the way his body reacts. If the Phils fall out of contention, they may simply shut him down. Many fantasy managers have moved on from Hall after his hot start; his rostered rate is all the way down to 4% in Yahoo! His stock may rise again after this weekend, though.

William Contreras, Atlanta Braves - .264 xISO

Unlike his brother, Willson Contreras, who has been one of the top catchers in fantasy all year long, William is freely available on waivers. That's because he splits time with Travis d'Arnaud behind the plate and has seen his DH at-bats dry up with the Braves' deadline acquisitions to provide depth. William Contreras has shown good power with a 44.7% Hard Hit% and one of the top max exit velocity marks in the league for a second straight year. Power is present but he may not play enough to collect counting stats needed for fantasy contenders.

Nelson Velasquez, Chicago Cubs - .254 xISO

It's frustrating to see Velasquez on here yet not in the lineup on a regular basis. When he does play, he's usually batting near the bottom of the order. He hasn't gotten much action for the big club this year but a 15.8% Barrel% is worth our attention.

Velasquez was a standout in the Arizona Fall League, leading all batters with a 1.192 OPS and nine home runs over 104 AB. It's disappointing to see the Cubs hold onto players like Willson Contreras and Ian Happ because that gets in the way of a young talent like Velasquez for the second half. Sadly, without an injury to a regular outfielder, we may have to wait another year to see what he can do.

Nick Gordon, Minnesota Twins - .223 xISO

A slew of injuries to Minnesota hitters could keep Gordon in the outfield down the stretch run. As mentioned weeks ago, Gordon doesn't profile like his older brother as a speed-first player. He does have above-average speed but the takeaway here is that he currently sports a Hard-Hit% in the 92nd percentile and xSLG in the 91st. It hasn't produced noteworthy counting stats - five HR, 20 RBI, five SB in 237 at-bats isn't moving the needle too much.

Gordon really should be showing more power, however, as he's one of the biggest underachievers in terms of SLG-xSLG at a -.049 difference. Gordon is stinging the ball regularly and, contrary to expectations, is a fly ball hitter. All the peripherals tell us that Gordon should be able to produce better power numbers and might be worth a flier in fantasy.

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