Projecting Power in 2021: Elite Levels of Air% Exit Velocity

November 30, 2020

Using changes in exit velocity on balls hit in the air, Nicklaus Gaut looks back on the 2020 MLB season to project 2021 power.

Everyone wants more power, even more so when it comes relatively cheap. But even when pricey, you're going to need to draft a bomber or two. One of the best ways to see how a player's power is trending is to sift through their exit-velocities to see what they're saying.

Most know by now that a player's average exit velocity won't tell you nearly as much as their exit velocities on just balls hit in the air. But parsing those exit velocities further can lead to even more insights. For predicting power the next season, the percentage of balls hit in the air at over 100 mph is just as important as average EV on balls in the air and can capture a better picture of what a player's top-end velocities are.

Using a variety of exit velocity metrics, we'll take a look at the players who were in the top-tier of moonshot potential in 2020 and whether it will carry over to 2021. And if you get a little too psyched up from all this power, just take the edge off by ripping a phone book in half or blowing up up a hot water bottle with your mouth. Someone hit the generic guitar riffs and pyrotechnics...The Power team is here.

Methodology, Terms, and Conditions

• minimum of 40 batted-ball events in 2020
• FB%, HR/FB%, etc. are calculated without pop-ups included. This makes for a lower FB% than seen on most sites and for a much higher HR/FB%.
• Statcast data is taken from EV Analytics and can be slightly different from Baseball Savant due to EV's own methodology. From their glossary:

Note: Statcast stats are calculated live by in-ballpark cameras and radar. These occasionally fail to record data on certain batted balls. All data and projections displayed at EV Analytics that rely on Statcast data identify these missed balls and estimate what they should have been. Internal tests showed this to be slightly more accurate than either ignoring the missing data or using MLB's.

• Air % (100+ mph) - the percentage of balls hit in the air at 100 mph or greater.
• Average EV Top-5% - The average exit-velocity of a player's top-5% hardest-hit balls in the air.
• Average EV Next-20% - The average exit velocity of the next 20% of hardest-hit balls in the air.
• LA% (38+ degrees) - The percentage of batted balls that are hit with a 38-degree launch angle, or higher. From EV Analytics glossary: "This range indicates an extreme uppercut swing, which can lead to power but also kills batting average and BABIP"

Being the Elite

2o20 Air% (100+mph), Point Increase from 2019

Miguel Sano - 66.7% ,+12.6

Jorge Soler - 61.7%, +16.0

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 61.4%, +15.5

This not just in...Miguel Sano hits the ball really, really hard. While his 57.3 Hard Hit% was virtually identical to his 2019 mark, his average EV on Air% actually dropped from 99.9 mph to 98.7 mph. However, the pudding at the top-end of his exit velocities held the proof:

He's going to hit bombs but if the average doesn't return from the Mendoza line, his fantasy usefulness is limited. Sano's .204 AVG  was bad and his 43.9% K% was even worse but at least his 19.1% SwStr% was better than Luis Robert? Regardless, the power upside that comes with those exit velocities and a 23.4% Brl% - plus being around just a 200 ADP in NFBC - makes Sano a lot more palatable.

After hitting 48 HR (.071 hr/pa) in 2019, Jorge Soler's power went poof in 2020, hitting just 8 HR in 174 PA (.046 hr/pa). And you'd be horrified if looking just at his average FB EV, which dropped 4.8 mph from 2019. However, Soler did see a massive jump in his 100+ mph Air%. So what gives?

Soler's top-end EV jumped but the average EV of his top-5% hardest-hit balls dropped from 113.4 mph to 111.4 mph, while the next 20% dropped from 108.3 mph to 106.8 mph. This helps explain why his average EV on Air% went down, even as his 100+ mph Air% went way up. And the big increase in 100+ mph fly balls didn't help as much with his 20.0% FB% representing a 7.7-point decrease from 2019, as well as his lowest since 2015.

I already liked Soler at his 126 ADP in the 2 Early Mason mocks and like him even more at his initial 156 ADP in NFBC. Maybe we don't see 48 HR again but 40 HR is definitely within reach and am optimistic that he won't repeat his .228 AVG and 34.5% K% (13.5% SwStr%).

After a balky balk prematurely ended his season in 2019, Fernando Tatis Jr. picked up right where he left off, hitting 17 HR in 257 PA (.066 hr/pa), after hitting 22 HR in 372 PA (.059 hr/pa) as a rookie. And while his 61.4% (100+ mph Air%) was up an impressive 15.5-points from 2019, Tatis didn't just improve at the top-end. His overall exit-velocity on balls in the air went from 94.6 mph in 2019 to 97.3 mph in 2020, and the average exit-velocity of his top-5% hardest-hit balls increased from 111.5 mph to 112.7 mph. Do I really need to sell you more on his awesomeness? Didn't think so.

A Notch Below

2o20 Air% (100+mph), Point Increase from 2019

Matt Chapman - 58.0% (+14.0)

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 57.1% (+13.3)

Juan Soto - 57.1% (+13.6)

As often happens in fantasy, last year's overpriced bust is this year's bargain. I stayed far away from Matt Chapman and his top-90 ADP in 2020 but am much more interested in his 115 ADP so far in NFBC. Chapman had just 10 HR on the season but that's only because he had his season ended in early-September by a torn hip flexor. The total may have been low but his .066 hr/pa was an improvement over his .054 hr/pa in 2019 and his increase in Air% (100+ mph) puts him at an elite level. Pair that with an 18.4% Brl% (4.8-point increase) and 23.1 degree LA (7.9-point increase) and I start really digging the 2021 draft day discount we're currently seeing.

Battling Tatis Jr. for intergenerational dominance, Ronald Acuna Jr. isn't a second-fiddle to anyone. After nearly joining the 40/40 club as a rookie, Acuna didn't exactly hit the ground running in 2020, slashing .214/.353/.357 over his first 15 games, with just one home run. "What wrong with Ronald?", all the silly people said. Umm, nothing.

Acuna Jr. slashed .269/.433/.702, with a 1.135 OPS, .433 ISO, and .460 wOBA over his final 134 PA, hitting 13 home runs and finishing with a career-high .069 hr/pa. So, not a bust?

And if his in-air exit-velocities have anything to say about it, don't expect the power to slow down any time soon. His 57.1% (100+ mph Air%) was up from 43.8% in 2019 and his average exit velocity on balls in the air jumped up 4.8 mph, finishing at a league-leading 100.7 mph. That's over 3.5 mph harder than the other two youngsters listed above. Ronald may run but Ronald also crushes. Moonshots, that is.

Here he is hitting the longest home run of 2020:

Ronald Acuña Jr. hit a 495-foot home run ? pic.twitter.com/NfnXzMoGk8

— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) September 26, 2020

If Acuna and Tatis hadn't sucked up all of the oxygen in the MLB bubble, we'd be talking about Juan Soto every day, right? But he only hit 13 HR last year, you say? True, but his .066 hr/pa was up from .052 hr/pa in 2019, and .045 hr/pa in his breakout rookie season in 2018. And you might not be impressed by the 13 HR but how about the rest?

Soto also serves as an excellent lesson in why looking only at average exit velocity on balls in the air can be misleading and how parsing out the ranges of those exit velocities can often be much more informative. His is 97.3 mph on balls hit in the air was obviously excellent (99th-percentile) but was only up 1.3 mph from 2019 - and the exact same as in 2018. However, the more impressive jump was going from 43.5% (100+ mph Air%) in 2019 to 57.1% in 2020, moving him from the 92nd-percentile to the 98th-percentile.

Potent Potables and Small Sample Asterisks

2o20 Air% (100+mph), Point Increase from 2019

Jose Ramirez - 33.3%, +11.0

Corey Seager - 50.5%, +26.0

Bobby Dalbec: 61.7%, n/a

D.J. Stewart: 55.0%, +8.8

While not on the same level in terms of Air% EV, Jose Ramirez is another good example of the need to go further than average EV and Hard Hit%.  In 2020, Ramirez hit 17 HR in 254 PA (.067 hr/pa) after hitting just 23 HR in 542 PA (.042 hr/pa) in 2019. His average EV and Hard Hit% both stayed virtually the same but Ramirez saw significant increases at the top-end of his exit velocities on balls in the air:

In addition to his increases in the juiciest EV categories, it's also nice to see a career-high in average LA and LA% of 38+ degrees, relative to power. The increase in uppercut swings may not bode well for repeating a .292 AVG that was his highest since 2017, with Ramirez's .265 xBA right in line with his numbers from 2018-19, but I'll take a dip in average over 2019's power outage.

Welcome to the party, Kyle's little brother! Corey Seager got out the big boomstick in 2020, jumping his 100+ mph Air% 26-points. While his 50.5% puts him in elite company, the increase is only so impressive because of his putrid 24.5% in 2019 - he was at 39.1% in 2017 and 2018. More impressive was his career-high 16.9% Brl%, after a 7.9% in 2019 and 9.5% in 2018. What doesn't impress me is a 27.3 ADP in NFBC, considering how deep shortstop continues to be.

Bobby Dalbec only had 41 bbe in his rookie debut but hit eight home runs in 92 PA, giving him a .087 hr/pa that was downright Buxton-esque*. You might overlook Dalbec to your detriment if paying attention only to his ho-hum 89.9 mph average exit-velocity and 43.9% hard-hit rate. Because the Red Sox rookie was on another level on balls hit in the air, with his 61.7% FB% (100+ mph) coming in second only to Miguel Sano. And his 100.1 mph average EV (FB only) was second only to Ronald Acuna Jr. Yes, that one.

Let's not get too crazy with Dalbec, as he also had a 42.4% K% backed by a 22.1% SwStr% that was almost as bad as Luis Robert's. Not great. And while he posted an impressive .325 BA and .473 wOBA against the 58.8% fastballs seen in 2020, they came with just a .186 xBA and .327 xwOBA. But his 250 ADP is still a pretty cheap price to pay for that sort of power upside.

*What? You didn't know that Byron Buxton led all qualified batters with .096 hr/pa in 2020? For shame.

As DFS bargain hunters probably already know, D.J. Stewart briefly went total 'nanners in 2020, hitting seven home runs in nine games from September 5 - 14. Unfortunately, he didn't hit a single home run before or after that streak, slashing .103/.271/.128 in his final 48 PA, with a 27 wRC+. But while his future performance might be cloudy, his exit velocities were so thunderous that he shouldn't be as ignored as his 512 ADP implies.

Maybe he's a fourth outfielder type in the long-run. But when you play in a high school ballpark that's masquerading as an MLB stadium and post a 99.4 mph average exit-velocity that finished only behind the aforementioned Acuna Jr. and Dalbec, you deserve a little attention, right?

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