RADIO
With roughly two months left in the fantasy baseball season, time is running out for owners to strengthen their teams for the stretch run towards a championship. Subscribers can use the The RotoBaller Home Run/Power Surgers and Fallers tool to discern which players are about to start mashing, and which players should be jettisoned before they begin a slump. In redraft leagues with trade deadlines, titles can easily be won or lost by what moves get made in the coming weeks.
Power Surgers
Brad Miller Power Average Difference +10% Status: Buy
A shortstop that can consistently hit the ball out of the park is always a strong fantasy asset. In just 336 plate appearances Brad Miller has set a career high with 15 home runs, and has tied the Tampa Bay franchise record for home runs by a shortstop in a season. Clearly the pace is surprising, as Miller had hit 29 home runs in his previous 1243 major league plate appearances. He has been especially hot of late, with six home runs and a .516 slugging percentage in the last 30 days. So what has gotten into Miller?
One major difference that might explain the power performance Miller displayed in the first half of 2016 is a major increase in average fly ball distance. His average fly ball was hit 283 feet in 2015, but that has jumped to 301 feet this year, good for 35th in MLB. Combined with an elevated pull rate, the longer fly ball distance is accounting for a 17% HR/FB that is far beyond his career average of 10%. That pace is clearly not sustainable, but 20-22 home runs is in play. Owners with a black hole at shortstop can do worse than Miller, as long as the expectations are reasonable.
Power Fallers
Kyle Seager Power Average Difference -11% Status: Buy
It has been a rough start after the break for Kyle Seager, but make no mistake about it-the dude is raking this year. Following four straight seasons with 20 or more homers, Seager already has 18 this year, and is on pace to shatter his career high.
The key to the increase in home runs for Seager this year appears to be simple. He his hitting more fly balls, and hitting them harder and farther. His average fly ball distance has increased by ten feet this year, to 286 feet. His hard contact percentage has jumped to almost 38% of batted balls, and his fly ball percentage has increased to 44%.
The power slump is only temporary for Seager, and he has a legitimate shot at 30 homers this year, despite playing in a park that normally suppresses home run totals. His performance has been overshadowed so far, not only by his brother in Los Angeles, but by other high-profile third basemen having monster seasons. Savvy owners should take advantage of this, and attempt to acquire his services for the stretch run from less discriminating league foes.
Jake Lamb Power Average Difference -5% Status: Sell
Obviously Jake Lamb has had an amazing first half, and should have made the National League All-Star team. His 21 home runs and .321 ISO have propelled him to the top of many fantasy stat leaderboards, and his success has been highly publicized in the last several weeks. For this reason, among others, he makes a perfect sell high candidate at this time.
Jake Lamb has shown major improvement in two key metrics that lead to more power-hard contact percentage and pull percentage. He has an astounding 50% pull percentage so far this season, and has a +4% change in hard contact percentage from last year. Considering he plays in a great hitter environment for home games, it should be no surprise that Lamb has had a breakout season.
As his owners might have noticed, Lamb has been in a short-term slump since just before the break. He is clearly a talented hitter, but his 28% HR/FB is amazingly inflated, and it seems that the regression is now beginning in earnest. So far, he is not hitting enough fly balls to end up with 40 home runs, so the pace is totally unsustainable. Owners with other needs in redraft leagues should consider shopping him around.
