Points Leagues Outfielders to Outperform ADP in 2023 Fantasy Baseball

March 24, 2023

Rephael Negnewitzky looks at a handful of outfield sleepers for the 2023 season. These players are poised to outperform their ADPs and deserve more attention from fantasy managers.

Pitchers and catchers reported to their respective camps nearly a week ago, which means that baseball is almost in full swing. While we are on the topic, we may as well discuss a few sleepers for the fantasy season. Here we go!

Today I've picked a handful of outfielders that are bound to outperform their current ADP. In more simple terms, ADP is a means by which players are valued based on their average draft position. To put that into perspective, the lower a player's ADP, the more value he brings to the table. Our objective today is to identify four outfielders that should be higher on the ADP scale.

Here at Rotoballer, we rely on NFBC (re-draft leagues) to determine a player's ADP. Although there is always the possibility that a player will shatter their initial ADP. In order to predict an ADP breakout, we must first run through the data and assess any piece of information to support our case. Let's get into it.

Starling Marte, New York Mets

ADP: 79.56 - OVR Rk: 82 - POS Rk: 21

Marte is one of the most undervalued and least speculated juggernauts in the game. He isn't a power-centric bat, which of course mitigates his value in the eyes of most fans. Hitting bombs and amassing a ridiculous number of extra bases is inherently more appealing, but a player with Marte's contact-first mentality shouldn't be any less of a threat. Wondering why?

The 34-year-old has never regressed below a .710 OPS unless you include his .701 mark when he made 112 plate appearances with the Marlins to close out the Covid-shortened year. It's kind of ironic, especially since Marte has a powerful build and never eclipsed 25 home runs. What most people take for granted is the fact that his intangibles are fully intact. He converted 18 of his 27 steal attempts this past year and has kept the status quo as a speedster for quite a while now. To truly convert you into a Starling Marte superfan, I must mention that he finished 15th in BAPIP in the form of a .340 mark. Why are we drafting him in the seventh round if his productivity levels are equivalent to a fifth-rounder?

Oh, I get it. You're hesitant because his strikeout rate has inflated incrementally over the past four seasons. OK, he reached a 19.2 K% rate this past season, which is a three-point difference from 2019; I get it. But come on, that's your roadblock? Let's not forget the numbers. Over the past two seasons, he's hit above a .350 wOBA with consecutive 130-plus hit seasons. Not to mention, he made his first All-Star game since 2016 and even finished with down-ballot MVP votes. If anything, those numbers offset his strikeout numbers, and now I can say that I did a fine job of changing your outlook on Marte.

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 100.83 - OVR Rk: 93 - POS Rk: 23

I'm not optimistic that Buxton can muster an injury-free season, but I'm certainly not aversive to a power-speed combo. What beats two of the most fundamental aspects of the game? Buxton got both of them. Obviously, it's difficult not to address his inability to keep on the field. The 29-year-old hasn't played over 100 games since 2017, yet Steamer has already given Buxton a 130-game clip for the upcoming season. Can we trust that? I truly hope so, for the sake of fantasy managers.

Even though Buxton hasn't amounted to 400-PAs or above since 2017, he still managed 3.1 FPPG in CBS leagues this past season. That proves exactly my point. Buxton was a top-12 OF if you hold by FPPG, and is already granted an identical 3.1 mark for 2023. It doesn't end there of course. The Georgia native was in the 90th percentile or higher for eight separate categories in 2022. What?? There is a very select group of players that are capable of breaking Statcast. He even compiled a .303 ISO and walloped 28 dingers, but that isn't a great outlier considering that he made close to 400 PAs in 2022 (382).

Unless Buxton is completely plagued by injuries, the 29-year-old centerfielder should be a healthy shoo-in in the Twins lineup. Assuming that he lasts for Steamers 595 PAs, he should be his old productive self. Maybe he can even notch a 1.000 OPS as he did in 2021. One thing is for sure, Byron should not be the 101st player off the board. A player with such caliber should not be drafted beyond the 100th player. Trust me, once you account for all of the intangibles that he offers, you wouldn't bat an eyelash before snagging him.

Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

ADP: 119.36 - OVR Rk: 126 - POS Rk: 30

I know that we've only seen one year of play from Steven Kwan, but I'm convinced that he is a perennial hitter. He emerged out of nowhere and finished as a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. Who expected this young fella to break out so drastically? Well, he did average 3 FPPG in CBS Leagues, which fixed him as the 12th-best outfielder in the game. He totaled 438 FPTS on the season and is surprisingly expected to score below his 2022 mark this season, in the form of a 387.5 tally. Although if we're basing those predictions on previous performances, Kwan should not be excluded from the top-30 outfielders' discussion, as per CBS predictions.

If you want the numbers, I'll gladly give them to you. It's pretty simple, to be honest. Kwan has already mastered the strike zone and is seemingly immune to striking out. He composed a ridiculous 9.4% strikeout rate which was the second-to-lowest mark in the league (Behind Luis Arraez- 7.1%). If I throw in his 1.03 BB/K rate this past season, does it make it any more appealing? Fine, he finished with a .373 OPB and compiled 168 knocks. I gave you the core numbers of his season, and I'll even toss in the fact that this all occurred in 638 plate appearances. He's a healthy gal which sure is necessary, especially if we're drafting him ahead of his current ADP.

I'll make this as straightforward as possible. Kwan was a top-30 finisher in BAPIP (.323), and Steamer is giving a .302 mark for the upcoming season. That's not right. The 25-year-old is already on an upward trajectory and is most certainly a top-30 outfielder. I'm not worried one bit that he'll encounter a rough patch at the plate, and there's a knocking possibility that he will shatter his expected .336 wOBA. The bottom line is if Kwan is a top-85 position player in CBS leagues heading into the season, then there's no basis to draft him at 119.

Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 125.84 - OVR Rk: 125 - POS Rk: 29

I don't have the greatest estimate for how Nick Castellanos will perform in 2023. He looked completely disoriented at the plate and even admitted to his struggles. "I was trying to do too much. Whenever I add movement, I try too hard" Castellanos said in a report. Though I installed Castellanos in this article for a reason. It isn't a common occurrence for a player of such caliber to have such a large discrepancy between two fantasy seasons. He reached new heights in 2021 with a career-high 3.9 FPPG and posted an eerie 2.2 mark in 2022. Guess what? This was a rare occurrence for Castellanos. His FPPG hasn't submerged below 2.5 since 2015.

The 30-year-old owns a career .330 BAPIP, and it doesn't fluster me that he scored four less than his mean average. To get even more statistical, his lifetime wOBA is .340, and if his .304 stamp in 2022 truly pesters you, I'll give you a little secret. His wOBA hasn't gone below .328 since that miserable 2015 season where he struck out at a 25.5% rate. There isn't much to worry about unless you don't endorse a bounce-back year. Why wouldn't you? If he makes the mechanical adjustment to his hack and exceeds Steamer's .303 BAPIP, he shouldn't be the 125th pick.

It's also worth noting his decline in power as demonstrated by his .126 ISO. He hit a measly 13 home runs, which was totally unprecedented if you compare that tally to 34 bombs just a year prior. Just between you and me, this is not at all an indicator that his offensive prowess is deteriorating. In fact, Steamer is a superfan of the "Nick Castellanos resurgence" as exemplified in the 20 HR/.172 ISO that he's projected to amass. It isn't quite likely that we'll see a repeat of this past season, especially since Castellanos is averaging 24 HRs with a .801 OPS over a 10-year career. Case closed.

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