X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Nick Mariano's 10 Bold Predictions for 2019

2018 was a banner season for baseball's Marianos, as Mariano Rivera was headed full steam ahead towards a unanimous Hall of Fame entry and yours truly was cruising with the most accurate fantasy baseball ranks of the season per FantasyPros, unbeknownst to me until recently. I'm still riding high off of that and you're all going to have to hear about it.

Some nice hits from last season's bold predictions piece included the resurgence of Trevor Story and Xander Bogaerts, the excellence of Whit Merrifield and the blossoming of Sean Manaea. But I also believed in Yu Darvish and James Paxton to stay healthy and was sipping that Delino DeShields Jr. kool-aid. So, what do I have in store now?

Let's dive in and find out just how I'm going to make it two accuracy titles in a row in 2019!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Rhys Hoskins is more valuable than Bryce Harper in 5x5 roto leagues.

Hoskins’ first full season saw him crush 34 homers with 96 RBI over 660 PAs, but the overall .850 OPS was disappointing after he cruised to a 1.014 OPS in a 50-game 2017 audition. His career .249 BA and .265 BABIP suffer from a 50.2% fly-ball rate, but true 40-homer power is possible as a result of his patient approach and it’s not like that's a Joey Gallo-ian BA.

Everyone is drawn to Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto without properly inflating Hoskins’ stock, as 100 runs and 100 RBI are on the table in a rejuvenated offense and hitter-friendly park. Harper also hit 34 homers last year with an average below .250, and could easily fall short of Hoskins unless Bryce swipes double-digit baggies. Hoskins trimmed his strikeout rate by five percentage points in the second half alongside a fly-ball and pull rate north of 50%. That spells power, baby. Walk Harper all day and let Rhys gobble up the ribbie pieces.

 

Luke Voit transcends his human form and finishes as a top-five 1B

Yankees manager Aaron Boone has said, “it’s tough for me to envision us having two first basemen” and that DJ LeMahieu could spell the starter. Greg Bird is 26 years old, injury-prone and owns a career .214/.302/.434 slash with 31 homers over 659 Major League PAs. Voit, in just 285 PAs, owns a .288/.358/.564 line with 19 homers and endeared himself to the Bronx faithful by going off in pinstripes. While we're not paying up for a career small-sample size, the opportunity of playing a full season as a starter in Yankee Stadium is juicy.

Voit had exactly 100 batted balls in 2018 and his 12.4% Barrels/PA rate was a full percentage point higher than second place (Joey Gallo) of others with 100+ batted-ball events. His 96.5 mph average exit velocity on flies and liners was a top-25 rate and even though I’m not saying he leads the league in Brls/PA again, he’s in a historically-potent Yankees lineup with a fly-ball approach that plays to the short porch in right/right-center. For what it’s worth, Statcast also gave him the highest xwOBA (.437) of any hitter (min. 150 results, different from batted-ball events), with Betts (.431) and Mike Trout (.430) eating his dust!

 

Corey Kluber is not a top-10 SP

This is really tough to defend because his division is soooo pitcher-friendly, especially for strikeouts, but he went from allowing an 85 mph average exit velocity and 5.5% barrel rate in 2017, to an 87.3 mph AEV and 6.4% barrel rate in ‘18 according to Statcast. His hard-hit also rose over four percentage points per Statcast. That’s not awful and his absurd ‘17 campaign helps paint it in bolder ink, but those small percentage rises can turn into a lot for a 33-year-old arm.

I don't love this, but I want to bring down a top arm amongst other calls that are largely positive. A mini boldish prediction here, “4B” if you will, is that Carlos Carrasco is higher ranked in 5x5 than both Kluber and Trevor Bauer.

 

Anibal Sanchez is a top-25 SP

Health is a fickle monster, but Sanchez finds himself on a Nationals squad that gets to face the Marlins and that Vegas is giving 89 wins right now. Out of 139 pitchers who had 300 batted-ball events under their belt, Sanchez’s 3.4 Barrels/PA was 17th and batters averaged only 90.5 mph on fly balls and liners off of him, the ninth-lowest total.

His changeup was particularly lethal, as hitters slugged a mere .205 off of it -- a mark bested only by Max Scherzer’s change (.192) for pitchers who threw at least 500 of them in ‘18. Jacob deGrom (.215) was third. Not bad company, eh? Couple that with a cutter that yielded a ninth-”worst” .317 SLG (tied with Walker Buehler) and you’ve got a nasty 1-2 punch. I see a recipe for wins, K’s and ratios, with a 1.15 WHIP within reason even as the .255 BABIP of last season faces some regression.

 

Mike Moustakas crushes 40 homers, wins NL HR Title

Moustakas is still just 30 years old, still within his power prime, and hit 38 homers while calling power-zapping Kauffman Stadium his home just two seasons ago. Now, without any midseason trade worries surrounding him, he gets to mash at Miller Park for a full year in a lineup that can bang. I understand he’s not hitting the heart of the order and the BA isn’t top-notch -- that’s why I’m not saying he wins MVP or anything -- but the pop is real and the environment is cushy.

Per Baseball Prospectus’ Handedness Park Factors, Kauffman Stadium was 58th out of 60 for left-handed batters in terms of HR Factor in 2018. Miller Park was seventh on the same list, yet Moose’s HR/FB rate dropped about four percentage points when he was dealt to Milwaukee last year. I’m betting on the larger body of work for both Moustakas and Miller Park to play up in ‘19 here, and it’s only a bonus that he’ll be 2B-eligible soon.

 

Corey Seager doesn’t return top-100 value, finishes within 20 spots of Asdrubal Cabrera in 5x5

I’ve never really understood the name-brand hype surrounding Seager, but you take a hot prospect and stick him in a Dodgers uniform and I suppose it shouldn’t surprise me. Seager is coming off of Tommy John surgery and is hoping to start playing defense in minor league contests later this week, per Bill Plunkett.

Seager hasn’t hit more than 26 homers before and I doubt his power peak comes after TJS recovery. His legs won’t bail his fantasy value out, with 14 steal attempts across 355 MLB games. The Dodgers may push him to 90-100 runs scored and his average could hit .300, but what’s a 90-24-80-2-.295 line worth? And that’s not baking in any rust from April and assuming he’s ready to rock come Opening Day -- which is not a given.

Meanwhile, Asdrubal Cabrera carries eligibility across much of the infield and now calls hitter-friendly Arlington home. That Handedness Park Factor chart from before graded Arlington as the best park overall for righties and fifth-best for lefties and both top-12 for HRs. Derek Carty’s THE BAT projects Cabrera to post a 74-24-80-3-.275 line. I can see that coming awfully close of Seager in 2019, with an ADP nearly 200 picks later.

 

Garrett Hampson & Trevor Story combine for 50 HR/50 SB

This flies in the face of everything Jeff Bridich and the Rockies mismanagement of youth has shown us thus far, but if Story could breakout then we can make this happen. To be fair, the Ian Desmond situation means it comes at Ryan McMahon’s expense, but the wheel of time is moved by blood alone. Also, I can’t do this without including Story!

Story went 37/27 last year and I’m comfortable going 35/25 on him, meaning I think Hampson goes 15/25 while the two becomes an exciting double-play duo in CO. Out of 549 players with 10 opportunities on the basepaths last season, Hampson’s 30 ft/sec was 10th and Story’s 29.6 ft/sec was 17th. The biggest hurdle here might be manager Bud Black’s willingness to run them! Hampson’s BA has cleared .300 at every level, his fly-ball rate sniffs 35% and he uses all fields. That’s enough for a solid 15 dingers.

 

Peter O'Brien clobbers 35 homers

You know who was in 11th place on that xwOBA list at .388, sandwiched between Joey Votto and Anthony Rendon? Yup, it’s O’Brien. He’s a one-tool dude and the counting stats won’t be kind on the 2019 Marlins, but the pop is oh so real.

The difference that showed itself in ‘18 was that instead of striking out a Herculean 40-45% of the time, he brought it down to an acceptable (in this era, at least) 28-30%. He’s 28 years old and only has 153 MLB PAs to his name, but if the whiffs stay manageable then that power plays at any venue.

 

Jorge Polanco is a top-10 shortstop, going 100/20/60/20/.300 from the leadoff spot

Eat your heart out, Byron Buxton truthers. Everyone may have chalked up his 10 HR, 7 SB, .316 BA in 55 games to end 2017 up to the PED suspension that “started” his ‘18 campaign, but he still hit six homers, swiped seven bags and hit .288 in 77 second-half games.

Most projection systems are giving him a realistic shot at 15/15 in his age-25 season, but we’ve seen power spikes (unknown relation to PEDs) and his sprint speed is identical to Francisco Lindor’s. If he can regularly get on base and dance a little ahead of Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz then 100 runs are happening.

 

Wil Myers fails to top 400 PAs, finishing around 250th overall

Honestly, this doesn’t feel that bold and I also don’t want to be right. I think Myers is an intriguing talent and he deserved better than to be sent back into the outfield where he always gets hurt. Alas, the Eric Hosmer signing robbed him of the 1B safety blanket and the Padres stacked infield gives him no home on the dirt, so the OF it is. Nevermind that he hit 58 HRs with 48 SBs between his two seasons at first, no, forget that.

The Rays started him in the outfield and he got hurt (right wrist sprain, fracture in ‘14). He came to the Pads in ‘15, made 37 OF starts and 19 1B starts between left wrist tendinitis DL stints. Then the two awesome, full years at first in 2016-17. Last season, he made two starts at first, 36 at third and 39 in the outfield. He would go on the DL with left arm nerve irritation, then an oblique strain and finally, a bone bruise on his left foot.

Mix in a deep Padres outfield with Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero and Franmil Reyes, and San Diego likely won’t feel crunched to rush Myers back in should anything crop up.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Clarkson24 mins ago

Questionable To Face Spurs
Devin Vassell31 mins ago

To Miss Third Consecutive Game
Chris Paul38 mins ago

Considered Probable For Thursday's Game
Khris Middleton43 mins ago

Medically Cleared To Play
Chris Sale11 hours ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal11 hours ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Paul George11 hours ago

Exits Game On Wednesday, Hyperextends Left Knee Again
Scoot Henderson12 hours ago

Leaves Game On Wednesday, Won't Return
Jalen Johnson12 hours ago

Active On Wednesday Night
Zach Collins13 hours ago

Uncertain To Play On Thursday
Austin Eckroat13 hours ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English13 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin13 hours ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy13 hours ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Patrick Williams13 hours ago

Likely To Miss At Least One Week
Kyle Anderson13 hours ago

Available For Matchup With Hawks
Victor Wembanyama13 hours ago

Out Again On Thursday
Jusuf Nurkic13 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Stephen Curry13 hours ago

Will Play Against Atlanta
De'Anthony Melton14 hours ago

To Undergo Season-Ending ACL Surgery
Tre Mann14 hours ago

Probable For Thursday Night Matchup Against Detroit
Mike Conley14 hours ago

Appears On Injury Report For Thursday With Toe Injury
Donte DiVincenzo14 hours ago

Questionable Heading Into Thursday
Josh Jacobs14 hours ago

Limited With Multiple Injuries
DeVonta Smith14 hours ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Isaiah Hartenstein14 hours ago

To Make Season Debut On Wednesday
Tyrese Maxey14 hours ago

Active On Wednesday
Jarace Walker15 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Ben Sheppard15 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Seth Jones16 hours ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Sam Darnold16 hours ago

Limited With Foot Injury
Max Domi16 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jalen Hurts16 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Connor Ingram16 hours ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Jake Ferguson16 hours ago

Picks Up A DNP On Wednesday
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen17 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
CeeDee Lamb17 hours ago

Listed As Limited, Dealing With Two Injuries
Alex Tuch17 hours ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson17 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Sam LaPorta17 hours ago

Practicing In Full
Jordan Eberle17 hours ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
George Kittle17 hours ago

Will Play In Week 12
Ludvig Aberg17 hours ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Ladd McConkey17 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Si Woo Kim17 hours ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy17 hours ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole17 hours ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
San Francisco 49ers18 hours ago

Nick Bosa Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey18 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
George Kittle18 hours ago

Limited During Wednesday's Practice
Brock Purdy18 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Alexander Mattison18 hours ago

Zamir White Not Practicing On Wednesday
Sam LaPorta19 hours ago

Trending Towards Playing In Week 12
Calvin Ridley20 hours ago

Out Wednesday With Illness
Isiah Pacheco21 hours ago

To Practice On Wednesday
D'Andre Swift21 hours ago

Won't Practice On Wednesday
Brandin Cooks22 hours ago

Cowboys Open Brandin Cooks' Practice Window
Mike Evans22 hours ago

Practicing Again On Wednesday
Connor Bedard1 day ago

Ends Drought With Two Assists
Sam Reinhart1 day ago

Pushes Point Streak To 11 Games
Mark Scheifele1 day ago

Celebrates Ninth Career Hat Trick
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Rocks Senators With Three-Point Period
Connor McDavid1 day ago

Nets Two Goals During Three-Point Night
TB1 day ago

Nicholas Paul Exits Early With Injury Tuesday
Zach Hyman1 day ago

Sits Out Third Period Versus Senators
1 day ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers1 day ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
Jonas Brodin2 days ago

Returns To Action
Joel Eriksson Ek2 days ago

Returns To Wild Lineup
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Robert Thomas2 days ago

Back For Blues Tuesday
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Alexander Romanov2 days ago

Rejoins Islanders Lineup
Brayden Point2 days ago

Ready To Return Versus Penguins
Conor Garland2 days ago

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
J.T. Miller2 days ago

Takes Indefinite Leave For Personal Reasons
Jake Ferguson2 days ago

"Will Be Hard-Pressed" To Play In Week 12
2 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
2 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
2 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
2 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer3 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
3 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
3 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva3 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy3 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
Nick Martinez4 days ago

Signs Qualifying Offer With Reds
4 days ago

Luis Severino Likely To Decline Qualifying Offer From Mets
James Llontop4 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig4 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal4 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic4 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones4 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title
Grayson Rodriguez6 days ago

Orioles Optimistic Grayson Rodriguez Will Have A Full Spring Training
6 days ago

Red Sox Have Productive Meeting With Juan Soto

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Jauan Jennings - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 12 (2024)

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends Analysis For Week 12 by Kevin Tompkins Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent […]


Video: Week 12 Must-Start Wide Receivers - 2024 Fantasy Football Streamers, Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Analysis

As we head into Week 12 we're dealing with multiple teams on byes. Be prepared to navigate those challenges by checking out our favorite 2024 fantasy football must-start wide receivers for Week 12! RotoBaller's Matt Donnelly discusses his top "Must Start" WRs that will have a fantasy football impact in Week 12, as well as […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, George Pickens

The Week 12 TNF game between two bitter AFC North rivals (Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers) is not likely to end up like the Thursday night game from two weeks ago when two different AFC North teams (Bengals and Ravens) battled to a 35-34 shootout. Somewhere deep in the charter of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I […]


Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Free Week 12 NFL Betting Picks and Expert Predictions

Well, Week 11 turned out to be another week where we were just treading water. We nailed our Chargers moneyline pick as they got the job done against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the Cleveland Browns let us down as they were completely destroyed by the New Orleans Saints. We dropped 1.02 units on that play […]


Brian Robinson Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings Running Backs, Waiver Wire Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 12 Targets and Avoids (2024)

Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do is […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 12 (2024)

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 12 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive […]


Joe Mixon - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Rest-of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 12 Updates for Top 200 (2024)

We're nearing Thanksgiving and the holiday stretch run of the fantasy football season, which means y'all get an early present with an updated rest-of-season rankings chart! The action isn't stopping so we can't slow down our efforts to constantly re-assess the field. Join us in analyzing risers and fallers with our Week 12 fantasy football […]


Justin Herbert

High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 12 Lineups Including Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Quentin Johnston, Austin Ekeler, Will Dissly, More

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 12 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key […]


Drake Maye - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Sneaky Starts, Pivot Plays, and Post-Waiver Pickups for Week 12 - Drake Maye, Quentin Johnston, Hunter Henry and More!

Three weeks is all we have left of the regular season. It’s the point of the season where every matchup is critical for those teams fighting for their playoff lives. To make it extra difficult, there are six teams on bye this week.  If you are one of those managers fighting for a playoff spot, […]


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, TE, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Late Slate: Daily Fantasy Football Week 12 NFL DFS Lineup Picks on DraftKings and FanDuel (2024)

Welcome back to our late slate Week 12 DFS picks article here at RotoBaller! In this piece, I will examine my top daily fantasy football lineup plays for the late slate in Week 12 of the NFL season. In Week 12, we have three games on the NFL DFS late slate on DraftKings and FanDuel […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 12 (Thursday Updates): Tyreek Hill, Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Isiah Pacheco and More

Week 12 of the NFL's 2024 slate is coming up, and as the fantasy football playoffs draw closer, it's becoming more important than ever to stay ahead of injury news for key players. Leaving a hurt player in your lineup can result in disaster. The author of this article missed out on the fantasy playoffs […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

PrizePicks NFL DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for Steelers vs. Browns Thursday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome to our PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for Week 12 Thursday Night Football -- Steelers vs. Browns! The 2024 NFL season is now past the midpoint and our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. Our partners at PrizePicks offer some […]


Tucker Kraft - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start 'Em and Sit 'Em For Week 12

We are officially in the home stretch of the fantasy football regular season. Traditional 12-team leagues have three more weeks, making our start/sit decisions even more critical and stressful. Securing a playoff spot is always the goal, but that first-round bye can be the difference between a championship or an early playoff exit. The tight […]