RADIO
Last Saturday saw us go 2-2. Thankfully, the two wins were from the full unit stakes and the two losers were the speculative half-unit stakes. So we still made a profit. This week, we're unleashing our new secret weapon courtesy of Frank Ammirante (follow Frank on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ). Frank has put together the run trends from this season for every team on a simple to follow sheet which can be by clicking found here. We'll reference this Totals Tracker sheet on our picks too.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, Steve will be carrying the free picks on weekdays throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Frank regularly posts picks on Twitter as well as creating the trend sheet. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
O/U Record: 0-2 (-2.0 U)
Runline Record: 0-2 (-1.0 U)
1st 5 Innings Record: 1-0 (+0.87 U)
Prop Record: 3-1 (+1.24 U)
2021 Total Record: 4-6 (-1.39 U)
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIL -105, CHC -105
MIL: Freddy Peralta: CHC: Adbert Alzolay
The divisional series kicked off Friday with these two occupying first and second place in the NL Central. Despite both teams struggling offensively, the Cubs hammered the Brewers on Friday 15-2. The Cubs scored 10 of their runs in the first two innings off of Brett Anderson and Josh Lindblom. There was also a stiff wind blowing out which certainly helped the teams combine for six homers, seven doubles and a triple.
Before last night's huge breakout, the Cubs ranked last in batting average (AVG) against right-handed pitching (RHP) with a collective .192, which they boosted up to .205 (28th) while the Brewers rank 27th with .209. The Cubs OPS versus RHP jumped from .638 to .683 (16th) after last night while the Brewers rank 24th with .656 (24th overall).
On the other side, both teams' pitching is good with Peralta sporting a 2.00 ERA from four appearances (three starts). That's backed up by a 2.77 expected ERA (xERA), 3.54 xFIP and 3.27 SIERA. Alzolay has a 6.10 ERA from his two starts, however his xERA is 2.86, xFIP is 3.36 and SIERA is 3.61 so has been better than the numbers suggest. Before last night, both teams ranked in the top half of bullpen ERA, although the Brewers bullpen ERA now sits at 4.92 (6th worst) after the Lindblom shellacking. We shouldn't see any late-game meltdowns in a tight game with both teams' best relievers being deployed tonight if needed.
If we look at Frank's Totals Tracker, from their 18 games (prior to yesterday) both teams had hit the under in 12 games with the Cubs 4-8 at home and the Brewer 2-7 on the road. The Brewers were also 6-12 on the over/under line versus starting RHP and the Cubs were 5-8 versus starting RHP.
The weather is also expected to be chilly and damp with only light winds blowing in from right field, so certainly a boost to the pitchers.
Pick: Over/Under - Under 8.5 (-115) 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PIT +180, MIN -200
PIT: Trevor Cahill; MIN: Michael Pineda
The Twins entered this interleague series in last place of the AL Central but a near no-hitter from veteran pitcher J.A. Happ saw them take game one on Friday 2-0. The Twins record of 7-11 is despite ranking 5th overall in AVG (.250) and 7th in OPS (.728). While their bullpen ERA ranks 7th worst (4.91), their xFIP is 4th lowest at 3.67 so can be considered unlucky. They're sending Pineda to the mound tonight, who has a miserly 1.00 ERA in three starts (18.0 IP). His xERA is 3.50 so he has been legitimately good so far.
Experienced Pirates starter Cahill has a 9.69 ERA from his three starts this year although his xERA is 4.47 so he hasn't been quite as bad as his ERA suggests. Pittsburgh's bullpen has been a strength with a 3.64 ERA (ranking them 10th in MLB). Their offense hasn't been quite as bad as expected but is still below average for runs scored (74 ranks 24th), AVG (.224 ranks 19th) and OPS (.660 ranks 26th).
The Pirates have been overachieving while the Twins are underachieving and that will change sooner rather than later. The Twins have been hit by Covid issues and called up Alex Kirilloff and Nick Gordon for the weekend series, which might give them a boost and take off the pressure from Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson, who have been carrying the offense recently.
Pick: Runline - Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-105) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants
Pablo Lopez has a career-best strikeout rate (K%) of 27.5% so far through four starts and has struck out at least six batters in each of his last three starts (including nine against the Giants last Sunday). He gets a chance to repeat that feat tonight. The Giants have a 28.2% K% against RHP this year which is the second-highest in MLB. The over/under is set at 4.5 and I'd be happy to take over at 5.5 too.
Pick: Lopez over 4.5 K (-158) 2 Units
In the same game, Jazz Chisholm has been lighting up the league so far and has been the Marlins leadoff hitter the last three games. He's a power/speed guy (four steals, four homers with a .630 SLG). Chisholm is 7 for 20 in five games against the Giants this year with two homers and has tallied two or more bases in three of those five games. He's also managed that feat in seven of his last 11 total games. If he stays leading off tonight, he'll have more chances to make it eight in 12.
Pick: Chisholm over 1.5 total bases (+142) 0.5 Units
