Lineup Takeaways - Week 4 Lineup Trends

Mike Kurland takes a deep look at Week 4's fantasy baseball risers and fallers based on recent lineup trends, highlighting strong and weak platoons, and players who may benefit from lineup slot.

Week four of the MLB season is in the books. There are new injuries, players landing on the COVID injured list, and many more developments that are causing lineups to alter. Let’s try to figure out what is noise and what really matters.

Just a reminder, I have added a 'Fantasy Fallout' section to the team breakdowns. This is meant to highlight lesser rostered players who may have fantasy relevance. As we get more tangible info and stats, the notes will evolve with it.

All roster percentages are based on Yahoo! formats.

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National League

NL East

Atlanta Braves

• It started late last week, but Freddie Freeman has now hit second for nine straight games. 
• Ozzie Albies has found himself batting fifth consistently since this move occurred. Albies will slot into the cleanup spot on days Travis d’Arnaud sits.

Fantasy Fallout

• Simply adjust statistical expectations here. Freddie Freeman is now in line for more runs and less RBI and Ozzie Albies is now in line for more RBI and less runs. 

Miami Marlins

•  Jazz Chisholm has now led off three-straight games and this includes both against LHP and RHP
• Corey Dickerson continues to sit against more LHP. He has only started against one LHP all season. He appears to have fallen to around fifth in the lineup. 
• Since Starling Marte (rib) has gone down with injury, Lewis Brinson has started every game in center field and typically bats in the bottom third of the lineup. 
• With Jorge Alfaro (hamstring) hitting the IL, there is more playing time for Chad Wallach and Sandy Leon
• It appears Garrett Cooper has fallen into a short-side platoon role as he has sat against the last three RHP. These were consecutive days.
• With Brian Anderson (oblique) hitting the IL with an oblique strain, Jon Berti has filled in three-straight games at third base and might be getting the everyday run there for the time being. Has hit sixth or seventh in the three starts. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Chisholm has gone from must-add to must-start given the playing time, production and lineup spot
• Jon Berti becomes an interesting target for stolen bases given the playing time that has opened up in the immediate future. Although he has zero so far in 2021, I wouldn’t expect that to continue. He swiped nine bases in 2020 and 17 in 2019, not to mention a few in Spring Training. There is a track record here. 
• Lewis Brinson is an NL-only league target here. He has little relevance otherwise at this point.
• Corey Dickerson changes from being a target for runs to someone to utilize for RBI as a middle-of-the-order bat if that is where he sticks. Although the power has yet to show, the batting average has been great, so he can help there as well.

New York Mets

• J.D. Davis has returned to the lineup and finds himself batting towards sixth in the lineup.
• Jeff McNeil continues to find himself in the bottom half of the lineup. He has hit sixth and seventh in three of his last four starts.

Fantasy Fallout

• With McNeil not hitting higher in the lineup it really limits his production potential. Not to mention it comes with a slow start. He has one home run, no stolen bases and is hitting sub-.200 early on in 2021. He is not someone to drop, but is someone to bench if you have a better option to roll with until he gets it going. 
• Davis hit a home run upon his return and is batting .467 over the last week. He is only 46% rostered and is worthy of a roster spot if you need high-floor production. 

Philadelphia Phillies

• Mickey Moniak has started five-straight in center field and six of seven overall. The one time he sat was against a LHP. 
• Brad Miller has been playing second base regularly with Jean Segura (quad) on the IL. Miller has hit fifth since starting.

Fantasy Fallout

• Moniak had a strong spring and paired with the prospect pedigree, there could be something there. He is currently 15-team mixed and deeper relevant in case it clicks for him. Yes, it has not been a great start as he has struck out 45.8% of the time but in 15-teamers and NL-only formats, he provides the potential for upside without much of a price tag.
• Every year Brad Miller finds a path to relevance. He appears to currently be on the strong side of a platoon and also has deep league appeal, but we know what to expect. In shallower formats, he is not someone I am looking to add as of yet.

Washington Nationals

• With Juan Soto (shoulder) on the IL, it has been Andrew Stevenson playing right field and leading off three of the four games he has started.
• Josh Harrison has hit second three-straight games and continues to play daily. 
• Victor Robles has managed to fall and remain batting eighth even with all the injuries. 
• Josh Bell and Ryan Zimmerman are in a platoon. Bell has yet to start against an LHP this year.

Fantasy Fallout

• As long as Soto is out, Stevenson is worth a look. He is playing everyday and leading off for now and those at-bats in that lineup are valuable. There is 15-team mixed league and deeper appeal here.
• I know Victor Robles has not performed as expected to begin the season, but I would still hold tight and give him a little longer before deciding to drop him. However, in 10-team leagues or three-outfield leagues, if you have a ton of injuries or no room to stash him as he plays through the struggles, he could be cut.
• Josh Harrison could be a desperation plug-and-play as he continues to play everyday and bat towards the top of the lineup.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

• Ian Happ has led off in all but three games this year and has played in three of six games against LHP.
• Willson Contreras continues to bat 2nd in the lineup regularly 
• Joc Pederson (wrist) hit the IL and Jake Marisnick has fallen into a starting spot in centerfield, typically batting in the bottom third of the lineup.
• Nico Hoerner got the call and started at second base and hit eighth in his 2021 debut. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Nico Hoerner had a strong Spring Training and if he is up to stay, he has fantasy relevance in leagues across the board with the exception of 10-teamers. He offers middle infield and second base eligibility and given the landscape at middle infield and injuries and COVID going on, he is more than worth giving a look. So far in just 10 games, Hoerner is hitting .571 with three RBI.
• Joc Pederson has underperformed and is now on the IL. There are better days ahead for him, but in anything shallower than a 15-teamer he is droppable.

Cincinnati Reds

• A healthy Jesse Winker is the everyday leadoff man for this team.
• Nick Senzel finds himself batting fifth with Mike Moustakas (illness) on the IL. 
• Tyler Naquin has been relegated to the fourth outfielder role with Winker healthy.
• Kyle Farmer has been the primary third baseman while batting in the bottom third in the lineup while Moustakas has been out. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Tyler Naquin and Kyle Farmer have NL-only appeal. I would not target them outside those formats. If playing time does come around for Naquin, he becomes mixed-league relevant again.

Milwaukee Brewers

• With Kolten Wong returning, he takes over at second base again and Keston Hiura moves back to first base. 
• This puts the squeeze on Daniel Vogelbach. He’s now relegated to a bench role. 
• This lineup has a lot of moving parts with injuries and pieces moving in and out. 
• Omar Narvaez continues to hit as high as second, but typically settles in around fifth in the batting order.

Pittsburgh Pirates 

• With Ke'Bryan Hayes (wrist) reaggravating his wrist injury, it appears he will remain out for now. This has opened up playing time for Erik Gonzalez to man third base as of now. 
• Phillip Evans plays everyday, bats second and has become the left fielder as well.

Fantasy Fallout

• Erik Gonzalez is not a sexy name, but there is playing time and with consistent playing time comes relevance in deep mixed leagues and NL-only formats. He is also batting .341 with eight RBI over the last two weeks. The batting average could stick around as we saw him be relevant for a bit in 2020 as well.

St. Louis Cardinals 

• Dylan Carlson has now hit second for two-straight games. He may have finally been moved up the lineup. This has simply bumped the rest of the regulars down a spot. 
• Matt Carpenter has found almost everyday playing time at second base while batting fifth or sixth most of the time. 
• Justin Williams continues to play regularly in left field and bat eighth. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Well, that didn't take long for Dylan Carlson to move up the lineup. Hitting .281 with three home runs and double-digit runs and RBI to start the year has vaulted him to the top of the lineup. The stolen bases have not come, but the rest has. The floor is high for Carlson, but the ceiling appears low as well. Regardless, he is a solid fantasy contributor who gets a boost in value as he has moved up the lineup.
• Matt Carpenter and Justin Williams are simply depth plays in deeper mixed leagues or potential starters if you are playing in NL-only formats. Williams has cooled off over the last week, but over the last two weeks combined he has hit .273 with two home runs and six RBI. Again, I would not target him outside the deepest of formats.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks 

• With injuries piling up, it’s Pavin Smith playing both first base and centerfield. He has led off four-straight games. 
• Wyatt Mathisen has played first base the last two games and bats in the bottom third of the lineup. 
• Josh Rojas has played two-straight and could be back in the mix for playing time. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Pavin Smith is the one with the most secure playing time at the moment, but Josh Rojas is also worth a speculative grab in case he earns the team's confidence again.

Colorado Rockies 

• Raimel Tapia has led off four-straight and appears to be in the driver's seat to lead off. 
• Ryan McMahon has been locked into the two-spot. Has hit there in six-straight games. 
• Garrett Hampson has fallen to the seven-spot over the last three games. 
• Yonathan Daza has started four-straight in the outfield and has been batting sixth in the process. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Garrett Hampson falling in the lineup does not make a lot of sense to me as he has hit well of late. Over the last two weeks, he has hit .297 with two home runs, a stolen base and seven runs. There is a path to moving back up if Tapia struggles.
• Raimel Tapia has been on fire the last couple weeks as well, thus vaulting him back to the top of the order. He's hitting .333 with two home runs over the last two weeks. But the reason you drafted him (stolen bases) continues to elude him.
• Yonathan Daza is just 1% rostered and is worthy of a look in anything that is 15-teams or deeper. He has not shown much in terms of power and speed but has earned regular playing time and has hit .306/.297/.444 on the year with a wOBA of .315 and wRC+ of 85. For me he is more of an NL-only play for now.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• The Dodgers are dealing with injuries and we're seeing a mix of Sheldon Neuse, DJ Peters and Luke Raley get playing time. All are hitting toward the bottom of the lineup when they’re in. 

San Diego Padres 

• As the lineup has gotten healthy, we’ve seen Tommy Pham fall a bit. He’s batting seventh over his last two games. 
• Trent Grisham has been bumped to second in the lineup behind Fernando Tatis Jr. batting lead off. 
• Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim are utility/bench bats. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Ha-seong Kim is droppable given the lack of a path to playing time right now.
• Tommy Pham I would try to hold onto. His underlying metrics suggest he should have been producing better than he has so far. He might even be on your waiver wire and is worthy of a stash if you have the room. The xBA of .250 is 68 points higher than his actual batting average of .172 and the xSLG of .434 is 246 points higher than the actual slugging% of .188. There should be better days ahead for Pham.

San Francisco Giants

• Tommy La Stella leads off against RHP and did finally start against an LHP recently. He could be moving out of a platoon and into a full-time job. He moved down against the LHP but at least he remained in the lineup. This came with Donovan Solano (wrist) recently going on the IL, so it's yet to be seen if La Stella will be in the lineup against lefties when the team is at full strength. 
• With the injuries to both Solano and Evan Longoria (hamstring), Wilmer Flores and Mauricio Dubon have fallen into more regular playing time. Flores has managed to hit in the top of the lineup and Dubon at the bottom, but both are playing more nevertheless. 
• Be mindful, Longoria isn’t on IL at the moment so the playing time for one (my guess is Dubon) is limited unless Longoria ends up missing more time than anticipated. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Keep an eye on Dubon's playing time as he could become relevant in deeper formats.
• La Stella is playing everyday and is just a player to plug in for the at-bats. He doesn't offer anything special but as long as he is playing everyday, he could bring relevance to 15-team leagues and deeper.

American League

AL  East

Baltimore Orioles 

• Austin Hays has played in three-straight games since returning from the IL. He has hit at the top of the lineup against LHPs and he fell to the bottom against the first RHP he has seen since his return. 
• With Anthony Santander (ankle) on the IL, it’s a matter of time until he returns and there will be a playing time issue in the outfield. It could work itself out in the mean time. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Just 9% rostered, Austin Hays is readily available and offers some power and speed upside. He has not done much since his return to the lineup, but his defense likely keeps him in said lineup and as the weather warms up in Camden, things can get going fast for Hays. Keep him on your watch list at the very least.

Boston Red Sox 

• Nothing of note here 

New York Yankees

• We’re seeing the Yankees just trying new things lately. 
• Aaron Hicks has found himself batting towards the six-spot more often.
• Gio Urshela batted fifth in the last two games. 
• Giancarlo Stanton has been bumped up to batting second with Aaron Judge third. 
• Rougned Odor plays second base everyday still and bats ninth. The playing time continues to be there. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Clint Frazier has played recently but has not been much help to fantasy managers early in the year. If you are in shallower leagues and there is a player performing well on the waiver wire, it might just be time to make that swap.
• Rougned Odor is widely available. His power and his presence as an LHH in Yankee Stadium gives him appeal, but there is a big question in the batting average department.

Tampa Bay Rays

• Yandy Diaz has led off against the last four LHP the team has faced and hasn’t hit below fifth in any of his last six starts. 
• After showing signs of possibly getting out of a platoon, Mike Brosseau may have fallen back in as he’s sat against the last two RHP.

Fantasy Fallout

• As long as Diaz plays everyday and hits towards the top of the lineup, he carries some fantasy relevance. He has not done much over the last week, hitting just .176 with two runs and an RBI. I wouldn't target him in anything other than 15-team leagues or deeper.

Toronto Blue Jays 

• Over the last three starts, Cavan Biggio has led off and Marcus Semien has fallen to sixth. 
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has batted eighth in two of the last three games. 
• Rowdy Tellez has been hitting fourth of late. He’s hit cleanup on each of the last three games and four of the last six. 

Fantasy Fallout

• They seem to be testing things out. Most of these names listed have all been struggling over the last week other than Marcus Semien and Semien could find his way back up sooner than later. There will continue to be moving parts as players get hot and cold. I would hold tight to most with Tellez being the one who is droppable of the bunch.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox 

• Luis Robert is trending up as he’s hit fifth in his last two games and Yermin Mercedes has fallen the seventh in the last two. 
• Andrew Vaughn has played three-straight in left field while batting eighth. 

Fantasy Fallout

• I am not giving up on Andrew Vaughn yet. If you can afford to stash him, you should. He is still the top prospect he was entering the year and is worthy of stashing where you can.

Cleveland

• Andres Gimenez continues to sit against LHPs and Amed Rosario starts at shortstop in his absence. 
• Amed Rosario led off against a few RHPs recently and hasn’t hit below sixth other than one time this whole season.  
• This has allowed Jordan Luplow to start in center field more of late and it appears he’s earned some playing time as he has started and led off four straight games. However three of the four were against lefties, so it may have just been due to that. And Luplow typically starts against LHPs. He did sit against their most recent RHP. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Gimenez is a great buy-low in any league you need stolen bases in. He has three stolen bases over the last two weeks. With the irregular playing time, he is better in daily leagues, but the stolen bases are there and with his value being low, he is a good target for said steals.

Detroit Tigers

• Akil Baddoo still finds himself having trouble getting into the lineup against lefties regularly, but does play the strong side of a platoon while hitting around the eight-spot. 
• The outfield is a bit of a mess right now with JaCoby Jones and Victor Reyes getting most of the time out there with Niko Goodrum factoring in at times as well. Robbie Grossman is the only player who plays everyday out there with Baddoo playing in the outfield against RHP. 

Fantasy Fallout

• After his fast start, Akil Baddoo has slowed down and it is hard to say it is a surprise. Striking out 43.4% of the time does not help either and coming off a bad week it is easy to see a path to dropping him. He is worth holding onto for another week, but he would be someone I can drop after another bad week.

Kansas City Royals 

• Carlos Santana moved into the two-spot and hasn't looked back. He has hit there six-straight games. 
• Hunter Dozier gained third base eligibility. He's been batting sixth the majority of the time. 
• Andrew Benintendi has dropped to seventh in the lineup. 

Minnesota Twins

• Against the last three LHPs, Mitch Garver has led off. 
• Josh Donaldson is healthy and batting second daily.
• Byron Buxton has returned from his minor injury and has hit cleanup since. 
• Luis Arraez continues to lead off against righties and bounce around the field. He should have eligibility at multiple positions soon if he doesn’t already. 
• Alex Kirilloff has been recalled due to the injuries on this team. He’s played left field exclusively so far while batting fifth in both games. 
• Willians Astudillo has found regular at-bats with the injuries in this lineup. He’s currently playing first base regularly and batting towards the end of the lineup. 

Fantasy Fallout 

• If Alex Kirilloff is available in your league, he is worthy of an add. He is a top prospect and could provide a boost to your lineup. He has also slotted smack dab in the middle of the lineup as well.
• Willians Astudillo, who has catcher eligibility, becomes very relevant in two-catcher leagues as he has fallen into everyday at-bats and that is all it takes to be relevant as a second catcher in a two-catcher league.

AL West

Houston Astros

• With Jose Altuve (illness) out, we’ve seen Carlos Correa leading off for three-straight games. Could he run away with it if he performs? 
• Aledmys Diaz has been starting at second base and batting seventh. 

Los Angeles Angels

• With Anthony Rendon (groin) out, Jared Walsh has hit his way into the cleanup spot. Walsh should stick in the middle of the lineup even with everyone healthy. 
• Mike Trout (elbow) took a pitch off the elbow and has missed two-straight. Scott Schebler has filled in. 

Oakland Athletics 

• They’ve remained consistent of late. 
• Stephen Piscotty and Seth Brown may have entered a platoon role together with Brown on the strong side. Although both find ways into lineups regardless at times. Both have played in three of the last five games and only one of their starts came in the same game. This is a situation to monitor. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Unless we get clarity on the playing time, neither Seth Brown or Stephen Piscotty are players I am comfortable starting in weekly formats. However, both are relevant in AL-only formats. I might even lean Seth Brown. Over the last two weeks, Brown has hit .318 with two home runs and five RBI while Piscotty has hit just .231 but also has two home runs and a stolen base. However, over the last week Piscotty has hit just .154 and is trending in the wrong direction.

Seattle Mariners 

• They remain relatively consistent for the most part. They just manage to get Sam Haggerty, Jose Marmolejos and others the occasional run of playing time it seems. It's hard to peg when it’ll change or how long it’ll last, especially with Kyle Lewis back, leaving less spots open for at-bats and playing time. 

Texas Rangers 

• David Dahl (shoulder) is out with a shoulder injury. Since the return of Willie Calhoun, Dahl had been playing the field. This could become an issue if Dahl’s health issues flair up more as the team won’t be able to preserve him in the field. 
• Since his return from the IL, Calhoun has played all but one game and has strictly been the DH 
• Adolis Garcia continues to get run and bat cleanup in the process. He has hit fourth in seven of his ten starts since getting called up. He has also played all three outfield spots in the process. 
• Leody Taveras has started in four of his last five against lefties, but has sat in three of the last four against righties. He could be falling out of favor and into a weak side of a platoon. It’s a situation to monitor. 

Fantasy Fallout

• Adolis Garcia deserves being added while he is running hot. He is striking out 29.8% of the time so that swing-and-miss can be an issue with the batting average but he has five home runs already so when he hits the ball it goes a long way. The power is real, but as pitchers adjust, he may struggle. However, until then he is worth rolling out there in your lineup.
• Leody Taveras is droppable in 10 and 12-team formats. His struggles have been evident since Spring Training and now his playing time is becoming irregular.

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