RADIO
TARGET: 192 (16th round in 12-team leagues)
CURRENT ADP: 237 (19th round in 12-team leagues)
ANALYSIS: The 2015 MLB season will be remembered for the emergence of a plethora of young talent: Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Miguel Sano, Noah Syndergaard, Jung Ho Kang, Joc Pederson, Matt Duffy. We could go on. But can you name who finished fourth in NL voting for ROY? That would be our latest sleeper, Justin Bour.
Bour wasn't your prototypical rookie. At age 27, he spent seven seasons in the minors with the Cubs and Marlins before joining the team at the end of April. He proceeded to hit 23 homers and 73 RBI (both 3rd among rookies) in 446 plate appearances with a respectable .262 average. It's likely Bour was a part of numerous fantasy baseball championship rosters. In the final month Bour smacked nine homers and 27 RBI with a .274 AVG. The only person upset with those numbers was probably Jeffrey Loria.
Bour is far from a perfect player. His defense was abysmal and he struggled versus lefties. All 23 homers came against right-handers and he only managed four XBH versus lefties. He also tends to struggle on pitches middle-in.
Justin Bour Spray Chart (2015) - FanGraphs
The good news for Bour is the NL East isn't loaded with lefties (Steven Matz, Gio Gonzalez, Manny Banuelos, Jerad Eickhoff) and he'll have a full year of Giancarlo Stanton ahead of him, which should result in an uptick of RBI opportunities. The 21.5% HR/FB rate suggests Bour would be fortunate to match 23 HR again, but he should produce top-20 numbers at first base all year long. Look for Bour later in your draft when filling your CI slot.
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