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I have to say, going from 18 games on Tuesday to 15 games yesterday to eight games today is quite the precipitous decline. We're coming off a fantastic day of baseball with three extra-inning games, and with some tight matchups today, hopefully, we can once again be entertained in a major way. Regardless, it's baseball, right? How could you not be entertained!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, May 19, 2022, for the 8-game 12:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all by all", but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Believe it or not, even with a limited slate of games, there is still plenty of value to take advantage of! What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PHI -120
SD: Yu Darvish | PHI: Kyle Gibson
Based on run differential per game, the Padres (.41) and Phillies (.47) have been roughly identical teams this season, although San Diego's record looks significantly better due to more success in one-run games. When it's all said and done, though, we shouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a playoff preview here.
Given the talent level of both of these teams, it would be understandable that the Phillies are a (-120) favorite to win this game. However, the pitching matchup doesn't warrant that. While Padres starter Yu Darvish's 19.6% strikeout rate is underwhelming, his expected strikeout rate of 24.6% tells a much different story; his 29.9% called-strike + whiff rate (CSW%) is roughly in line with where it was last year (30.3%), when he had a 29.2% strikeout rate. Based on Eno Sarris' stuff+ model (123.9), his arsenal has taken a notable step up, which makes sense since he's made legitimate tweaks to his arsenal, throwing more four-seam fastballs (22.1% to 29.7%) and fewer cutters (34% to 28.6%), along with more splitters (4.8% to 8.7%).
On the other hand, Phillies starter Kyle Gibson has benefited greatly from just a .264 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP), which correlates with an unsustainably low 18.2% line-drive rate allowed. Considering he's playing behind a defense tied for the second-least amount of defensive runs saved, you figure his poor luck will run out eventually. Plus, while San Diego's bullpen ranks top-ten in skill interactive ERA (SIERA), the Phillies rank in the bottom ten, struggling mightily with control. Against a Padres offense that has the third-highest walk rate (10.2%) and has the second-lowest swing rate (44.2%), that could be problematic.
With the clear pitching advantage and a similar talent level overall, the Padres would appear to be the logical team to be favored here. Yet, you can get them as an underdog. I don't know about you, but that sounds intriguing! Let's hope for some magic from Slam Diego today.
Picks: San Diego Moneyline (+106), FanDuel Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BOS -133
SEA: George Kirby | BOS: Rich Hill
Happy George Kirby day, everyone! Fangraphs #29 overall prospect, Kirby dazzled Double-A with an absurd 34.4% strikeout rate and 29% K-BB ratio, earning his promotion to the MLB level. With a 101.1 pitching+, based on Eno Sarris' model, as well as 17.9% K-BB ratio and 3.48 SIERA, he's been quite impressive so far.
Although they have been better as of late, the Red Sox still rank in the bottom ten in wRC+ this year. With his stellar command, Kirby should have no issue limiting base-runners for a team with the second-lowest walk rate (6.7%), while Boston also hasn't been impressive at all from a power perspective (.127 isolated power/ISO) as well.
Red Sox starter Rich Hill may have a 2.89 ERA this season, but that is in spite of a 18.6% strikeout rate and an 8% swinging-strike rate. His stuff+ rating (98), based on Eno Sarris' model, is down significantly from last year (106.7), and it's hard to fully trust him at this point. Plus, he's averaging under five innings per start this season, placing a lot of pressure on a bullpen that ranks in the bottom-ten in xFIP, whereas Seattle ranks in the top ten. Overall, the Mariners have a better-performing offense, a better starting pitcher, and a better bullpen. As a decent underdog, that's quite the favorable advantage to have.
Pick: SEA Moneyline (+118), FanDuel Sportsbook
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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: HOU -200
TEX: Glenn Otto | HOU: Framber Valdez
It's the battle of Texas! As evidenced by Houston's money line here, this certainly is not expected to be a very close game, though, it's baseball; anything can happen. Regardless, we're not here to look at the money line, as there isn't much value on either side.
Rather, let's look toward the game total, which seems a bit too high considering the circumstances. For starters, Astros starter Framber Valdez has been spectacular this season. In seven starts, the 28-year-old has a 3.27 SIERA and continues to suppress barrels and home runs at an exceptional level based an absurdly high 69.2% ground-ball rate, consistent with his career norms. The Rangers lineup, meanwhile, ranks in the bottom-ten in wRC+, and while they have performed well versus lefties so far this season, you would assume their lineup takes a hit with Brad Miller and Nathaniel Lowe being subbed out versus lefties, along with Corey Seager and Kole Calhoun each being lefty hitters as well. Over time, I expect that drop-off to show.
Rangers starter Glenn Otto, meanwhile, has showcased the ability to miss bats with a 12.6% swinging-strike rate and a 27.8% expected strikeout rate. The Astros are an absolutely gruesome lineup to go up against, but it isn't as though Otto is a pitcher without legitimate talent; you don't put up a 35.3% strikeout rate and a 28.9% K-BB rate in the minors by accident. It's a risky bet, but we have some wiggle room with Valdez here against a subpar Rangers lineup. Take the under here.
Pick: TEX @ HOU Game Total Under 8.5 (-110) , FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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