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FSWA award winner Eric Samulski gives his top 100 starting pitcher rankings for 2022 fantasy baseball using advanced stats to explain his list.
I decided to publish a top-100 starting pitching rankings list! I have no idea why, though.
These fantasy baseball rankings lists are often the most scrutinized and criticized of anything anybody publishes, so I'm not sure why I decided to open myself up to this. However, I've also been researching pitching all offseason and constantly tinkering with this list, so since it's there I figured I may as well put it out into the world for discussion.
Hopefully, you find it useful for your process, as I think it's always beneficial to hear how other people approach a situation because it can crystallize our own beliefs, but I will always encourage you to draft based on your own gut and not simply use somebody else's rankings, mine or otherwise.
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Methodology
In order to make the list, I've been spending a lot of time going through the starting pitching landscape, looking at metrics I find to be most useful (CSW, K-BB%, SwStr%), and then using Alex Chamberlain's pitch leaderboard to look at pitcher's full arsenals and also using the Player Profiler option to see performance splits based on month or half of the season. I feel this gives me a good sense of the performance from last year, but also allows me to see what kind of room for growth or potential regression exists based on the pitcher's entire profile. Then I simply just started to ask myself: Who would I rather draft?
If I found myself taking the information I researched and leaning with one pitcher over another, then that was enough for me. It might be a crude way of organizing it and may allow for personal biases to seep in, but at the end of the day, you want to draft a team that you feel confident in, so if I felt in my gut that I was more confident in one pitcher than another, I wanted to stay true to that.
It's also important to understand that the tiers are certainly a bit arbitrary. There isn't really a clear cut-off other than me feeling like one pitcher is at the end of a group because I like him more than the next group and I want to distinguish them. Which is just another way of me saying, again, that this is an inexact science and actually not even really a science at all; it's just a way to show you which pitchers I'm confident in and which pitchers I have some concern over for the upcoming season.
Tier One
Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes are simply in a tier of their own to me. I trust Cole's track record a bit more and think he's a better bet for more innings between the two. Locked in first-rounders for me.
Tier Two
Jacob deGrom was one of the toughest pitchers to rank. If I knew for sure he was healthy, I'd rank him 1st overall. He certainly looks healthy this spring, but the Mets' spotty track record with maintaining pitcher health and his decision to avoid surgery have me a little weary. Then again, all starting pitchers have a certain level of risk, so there's an argument to be made that you should just lean into it.
Personally, I want to limit my risk as much as possible in the first and second round, and if deGrom has a fully healthy season I get burned for taking one of these five pitchers above him, my hope is that I'm still at least getting solid production.
Tier Three
Similar to deGrom, I'd probably have Shane Bieber a little higher if I knew he was fully healthy. However, his injury being to his shoulder and not his elbow makes me a little less concerned because we have enough of a history of medical data that suggests Bieber's 2021 injury is less worrisome for long-term risk. When he was pitching, he had a 17.4% swinging-strike rate (SwStr5) and a 34.8% CSW even without his top-end fastball velocity. I still think he's an SP1.
I'm also buying in on Aaron Nola's 2021 being a bit unlucky. His underlying metrics have been discussed to death, and I don't love the home park, but Sami and I broke him down in detail on an episode of the Catcher's Corner and I still think there is tons of value in the safe floor he provides. However, I also love Freddy Peralta this year, and he's certainly not safe. Going into 2021, I was worried that he was a two-pitch pitcher that would be better in the bullpen, and I was so wrong. He changed the shape of his curveball to make it more distinctive from the slider and also threw his change-up more. I think the Brewers take the wheels off even a bit more and Peralta takes another step. Sami and I went a bit ga ga over him on another episode of the podcast too.
Tier Four
Zack Wheeler is another pitcher who dropped a bit because of injury. I know he's already throwing again, but he has thrown SO MANY innings over the last few seasons and had arm issues earlier in his career, so I'm a bit worried. I love the talent and maybe I'll regret moving him out of my top-10.
I know I'm low on Sandy Alcantara, but I still think top-15 shows faith in him based on what he has been as a pitcher this far in his career. Sami and I also discussed him at length in the same podcast as Nola, listed above, but I'm less convinced we see a massive strikeout breakout than others seem to be. Even at the end of the season when he was throwing his slider more, he was still throwing his changeup a lot when he was ahead in the count with two strikes, which limits his strikeout numbers. He could certainly take another leap, and I'm a fan because he's in the top-15, but I can't pick him over the guys in front of him.
I was still in on Carlos Rodon before the Giants signing, but an organization of that caliber liking his medicals and signing him so quickly gives me confidence. I am sure they'll have a solid plan to get the most out of him, and even if that's only 140 innings or so, I have a feeling they will remain truly strong innings.
Tier Five
Y'all can give up on Yu Darvish all you want, but I won't. Yet. He struggled with control at times and wasn't his best self, giving up an 8.8% barrel rate and losing the HR/9 gains he experienced in the short season. However, he still had a 22.8 K-BB% and 31.2% CSW, which was just behind Brandon Woodruff, Trevor Rogers, and Dylan Cease. And that's in a bad year. Maybe he returns to a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA pitcher, but he'll be on a good team, in a good home park, with strong strikeout stuff. I believe in his ability to correct from last year and remain a strong fantasy option.
Justin Verlander looks really good so far this spring, and he has been elite for so many years that I'm willing to take the chance here. I'm, however, not willing to take the chance on Robbie Ray and won't get him with him being ranked this far down. I understand I might be stubborn, but I just can't fully trust this after one year. He still gets hit incredibly hard with a 9.8% barrel rate and 1.54 HR/9 last year - both worse than Darvish. It's possible his new command sticks and the strikeout rate gains remain, but somebody else will reap those rewards if they do.
Shane McClanahan, Trevor Rogers, and Alek Manoah all possess tremendous upside, and I'm in on all of them.
Tier Six
This is a bit of a Wildcard Tier for me. I've changed my ranking on Nathan Eovaldi so many times and, admittedly, being 33rd feels too high to me, but then I look at the players ranked under him, and I'm just not entirely sure I'd rather have the over him. Luis Castillo is already getting a late start due to arm soreness and the Reds are clearly not competing this season, so I have a fear they aren't going to rush him back since they likely just want to showcase him and trade him. We had C Trent Rosecrans on the latest episode of Catcher's Corner and he mentioned that it might be late April until we see Castillo back on the mound, but he also mentioned that it's likely Castillo is moved over the summer. So I want to move him down for likely missing 3+ weeks of action, but the upside of him pitching half a season outside of Great American Ballpark is also intriguing.
I liked what Chris Sale did last year and expect improvements another year removed from Tommy John surgery, but I also think he'll miss at least a month with this rib injury since the Red Sox would rather he be healthy at the end of the season than rush him back. If he's down to 150 innings this season, I need to drop him to around here in my rankings.
I've also pretty aggressively moved Logan Gilbert up my rankings this spring. I know we don't want to take spring training into account too much, but we do when it involves a pitcher re-inventing himself. I'll have a more detailed article coming out about this next week, but Gilbert worked with deGrom in the offseason and re-shaped his breaking pitches to give them a more distinct look. His slider is now 89-90 mph and more like a traditional cutter, but he has looked great this spring. I'm super excited about him and wish I had more shares.
Tier Seven
This is a bit of a tier of injury and confusion. Luis Severino, Clayton Kershaw, and Zac Gallen are all coming off an injury but could be high-ceiling SPs if they're healthy. I love Pablo Lopez, but his shoulder injuries concern me, so I just can't move him up any farther and would only draft him if I felt really confident in the innings I'm getting ahead of him, but I might actually just remove him from my draft board entirely if his next spring outing isn't more optimistic. A longer spring would have given up more time to see Mike Clevinger, who hasn't really pitched since 2019. He's been elite when he's on the mound, so Clevinger is the guy I'd most likely move up and I understand this could be an overly cautious ranking, but it's where he's at today.
Luis Garcia is coming off of a career-high in innings on a team that will manage innings by moving their rotation around, and Michael Kopech is in his first year as a starter and will likely have his innings capped.
The confusion is which versions of Eduardo Rodriguez, Framber Valdez, and Sean Manaea we're going to get. E-Rod had peripherals that seemed to suggest he was unlucky last year, but he's never been consistent and has battled some injuries. Manaea had a jump in velocity and effectiveness but is it staying and where will he be pitching? What if his park factors get way worse? Valdez struggles with command historically (except for the shortened 2020), so if I'm getting an 11.7 K-BB% this year, can I actually live with that because he has a wicked curveball and pitches for a good team? Where will Tyler Mahle be pitching and can it help him with his home run issues? I'm just a bit worried by all of these guys to a certain extent.
Tier Eight
This is a tier of Boring Veterans mixed with What If? youngsters. Marcus Stroman, Ian Anderson, and Anthony DeSclafani all won't get people excited, but they produce results with solid ratios. Did you know Stroman is 20th in all of baseball in WHIP since 2019? Last time I checked, WHIP was still a fantasy category, and now he has Andrelton Simmons as his shortstop.
I've had Patrick Sandoval higher at times throughout this offseason and then talked myself out of it. I don't know what to say. I really like him. I think he has a chance to really breakout. His back issues also worry me, as does his lack of consistency and his team using a six-man rotation. Still, I want shares.
I've found myself with a lot of Triston McKenzie shares. I like the adjustments he made last year and I trust the way Cleveland develops pitching. I think he has a real chance to emerge as a top-20 SP this year. I also think Shane Baz has that talent, but he's already behind schedule with an arm injury and pitches for a team that is notoriously cautious with their arms. I just can't see Tampa Bay rushing him back or allowing him to throw too many innings after throwing just 91 across three levels last year.
Tier Nine
I feel like this is high for Tarik Skubal but others are so much higher. Yes, he seems to have corrected an issue with his fastball where he is now pitching more up and glove side, which is important, but a few spring starts don't mean that issue is fixed. He gave up a lot of home runs to righties last year, which is a major problem. I also watched a lot of starts where he really struggled to command his breaking pitches, alternating between missing the zone or catching too much of the plate. The raw pieces are there for him to be incredibly successful, but I think there is a lot that needs to be improved and it might take half the season at least before we really see him lock into the pitcher we think he can be.
Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard, and Huascar Ynoa are all coming off of injury but look good this spring. They don't, in my opinion, have the upside of the four injured pitchers I had ranked above, but they've shown flashes of fantasy juiciness in the past, and I'm happy to draft them if I feel like I have stable pieces of my rotation around them.
Yes, I have Jesus Luzardo this high right now. He is throwing his curveball an awful lot this spring, which is great because it's his best pitch. His fastball is sitting 97 mph, and he's getting a ton of whiffs. The injury to Sixto Sanchez made it much easier for Luzardo to open the season in the rotation, and I'm trying to keep the last two years of struggle in perspective and not reach too high with all the hype. However, the Marlins are a tremendous organization when it comes to developing pitching, and they acquired Luzardo because they clearly felt they could get the most of out him. Maybe they have.
Tier Ten
Yes, I believe in Bailey Ober. I covered him in a deep dive last year and mentioned his overall plus command. I think the control and approach are elite, and he showed real growth with his offspeed pitches as the year went on. He got a little tired at the end of the season, but the suer showed a strong ability to limit hard contact and strikeout gains that have me buying in at his cost.
And, yes, I'm still in on Kyle Hendricks. To an extent. This was a guy we were ranking around SP20 last year who is now being all but forgotten because of one bad year. The defense behind him has gotten better, and I'm willing to bet on the track record and success and not just that he all of the sudden forgot how to pitch.
Jameson Taillon was making real strides in the second half of last season, keeping the fastball up and the breaking ball down. I covered in an earlier article that "The right-hander started to come on of late during his first season with the New York Yankees, pitching to a 3.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 61.2 second-half innings. Taillon started throwing his sinker more at the expense of his four-seam and improved the location of his breaking pitches, which allowed for SwStr% gains with both the curve and slider."
I'm also in on his NYC counterpart Tylor Megill. He's been having a strong spring and most people wrote him off as a bit of a fluke after last season, but he has a strong trio of pitches, and I really like his changeup. He's a young pitcher with plus raw stuff working with two of the best to ever do it, so I'm still happy to buy in for this year.
Casey Mize had his splitter working the last game and has talked a lot about trying to find it again this offseason. If that pitch is on, he's a totally different pitcher and has way more upside than I had expected just a few months ago.
We also have another injured pitcher that I have more concerns about. I wish I knew more about the health of Lance McCullers. We know that he is behind schedule and will miss the start of the season. We also know that his injury is to his forearm, which concerns me given his past arm issues. I'll draft him at this spot only if I'm in a league with an IL spot.
Tier Eleven
This is another confusing tier for me. I love parts of the arsenals of Luis Patino, Nick Pivetta, and Josiah Gray, but they all have consistency or workload concerns that keep them here in the 80s. Still, I think they have the swing-and-miss upside to be real fantasy contributors and potentially more than streamers.
Hunter Greene is one of my favorite young SP dart throws. C Trent Rosecrans supported the idea that Greene could break camp with the Reds, and he has electric stuff, so I'm certainly taking the plunge here and might even do it sooner. I did a deep dive last year on Carlos Hernandez where I discussed that I was a fan of his arsenal and think that he has the components to really improve his strikeout rate. I also listed Reid Detmers as one of "my guys" on Jon Anderson's podcast, so I'm all in there.
Zack Greinke may be old and boring but people are too quick to write him off. I think Kansas City was the perfect landing spot in terms of park and Greinke's desire to be out of the spotlight and just allowed to go about his business. I think we see a solid year from him this year and love him to round out my staff given what I assume will be plus ratios.
Tier Twelve
This tier is full of boring veterans who might also be interesting. Madison Bumgarner is throwing 93 mph in spring, which is faster than he's thrown in two years. He mentioned making it a priority this offseason to regain velocity and if he can hold it, I think we're going to see a useful year from him.
Rich Hill has always been effective when he's healthy, and he's healthy now. I love him late in drafts because you're not investing a lot to draft him, so if/when he ends up on the IL, you can stash him or cut him and have likely banked some strong stats in the process.
Tier 13
MacKenzie Gore seems to have begun to right the ship, and we have to remember that he was the top pitching prospect in baseball not long ago. Prospect development isn't linear, and he's clearly clicking with the new pitching development in San Diego. He has the upside to be a real difference-maker late, but we just don't know when he's coming up or how many innings he's throwing.
Adrian Houser has a career 3.73 ERA in the big league, had the lowest wOBAcon allowed in baseball last year, and pitches for an organization that knows how to develop arms. To that end, he has discussed changing the grips on both his changeup and slider this year in order to increase strikeout ability and work both sides of the plate. He's been having a good spring, and I think the past success plus changes make him worthy of a late-round flier.
I've mentioned Merrill Kelly as one of my favorite late-round pitchers, but I just can't fully get behind the love for Cal Quantrill and Andrew Heaney. I'll let somebody else take those chances; I just don't anything in the profiles there that makes me think there's a massive leap coming, so I want upside if I'm drafting late out of this tier.
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