Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide For Starting Pitchers: Rankings, Tiers, Cheat Sheets

March 21, 2026

Thunder Dan's fantasy baseball draft guide for starting pitchers - rankings, tiers, cheats for 2026. His favorite SPs from every part of the draft, and key fades.

This article should be the capstone in my preseason coverage of starting pitching, as we draw closer to Opening Day and the last big draft weekend of the spring.

By now, I've spent a lot of time researching just about every relevant starting pitcher in major league baseball, and it's time to pull all that research together to give you the most actionable advice possible for your drafts.

You can think of this as my official "cheat sheet" for draft day. And while I already know that I'll be wrong about the values of many pitchers this season, I hope that I get many more right. These are my own personal rankings and targets; don't feel compelled to follow every recommendation, but I'm simply sharing how I view each of the top 150 starting pitchers going into the 2026 season. Lo and behold, I give you my starting pitcher draft guide!

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Thunder Dan's SP Cheat Sheet

A few quick words about how I set this up. I broke down the top 150 starters into 11 total tiers. Finding a clean break from one tier to the next is never easy, and I am sure you could argue that certain pitchers could be included in one tier or the next. But breaking the larger group out into smaller ones helps us make these decisions in each round a bit easier, and allows me to analyze each section of the draft independently.

The ADP that is being used here is from NFBC drafts over the last two weeks. I have developed a color coding system to help each of my designations stand out a bit more.

Each pitcher is labeled one of the following:

• SAFE = A fine option at that ADP, very little risk.
• FADE = I feel this player is being overdrafted and offers less upside than others around them.
• TIER FAVE = My favorite target in that tier.
• RISK/REWARD = A pitcher with upside, but also carries some risk or "bust potential."
• BREAKOUT = Young pitcher who could far exceed ADP if they pitch up to expectations.
• VALUE = Any pitcher who I feel is being drafted too late for their potential.
• STASH = Late-round options who may start in the minor leagues, but could be valuable when called up.

Again, my goal was to make this as useful as possible. And I promise I will keep my analysis of each tier relatively short, so you don't have to scroll until your fingers fall off to get to the end! Here we go!

Starting Pitcher Targets: Tiers 1 and 2

No one is going to be mad at you if you take one of the top three guys in the first round or even the early second round; it's just not a strategy that I employ. I'm much more likely to start my staff with a pitcher from Tier 2. Cristopher Sanchez and Logan Gilbert are my favorites if I go after a pitcher in Round 3 (and I wouldn't be surprised if either one of them won a Cy Young), but I am more likely to draft Jacob deGrom or Cole Ragans as my ace a few rounds later.

Bryan Woo and Max Fried are both safe options, but I'm fading Yamamoto and Brown (who I both believe pitched a bit over their heads last year) as well as Sale (who is getting old).

Starting Pitcher Targets: Tiers 3 and 4

Tier 3 is where I like to start getting aggressive and targeting some upside. Guys like Logan Webb and Framber Valdez are safe, solid innings-eaters, but I have Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez circled here.

There's been a lot of buzz around Kyle Bradish, but I am probably not pulling the trigger on him this early.

We shouldn't overlook Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher; he's another year removed from his TJ surgery and put up elite stats last year in a small sample. If we are going to get fewer innings from Dodgers' starters, we may as well prioritize their two best arms (Ohtani and Emmet Sheehan, sorry Yoshinobu Yamamoto fans!).

Tier 4 is loaded with boom/bust guys like Spencer Strider, Chase Burns, and Zack Wheeler. I'd try to limit myself to maybe one of those guys, while I'm all about investing in young arms like Misiorowski and Schlittler.

Ryan Pepiot was better last year than people remember, and should be even better this year as the Rays move back to their home park.

Starting Pitcher Targets: Tier 5

This tier is a good combination of safer picks and sexier ones. Drew Rasmussen is one of my favorite targets in this range; he's like a big warm blanket of low ratios, even if he's only an average strikeout pitcher.

Brandon Woodruff is a fade based on his health, while Gavin Williams was a guy I had a hard time picking a side on, but ultimately, he's just too mercurial for my taste at this cost. I'm all the way out on Blake Snell and his lack of innings, as well as Trey Yesavage, who is now going to start the year on the IL.

Bubba Chandler is a great pick in this range, and if you miss out on him, then the Astros' rookie Tatsuya Imai is a nice consolation prize.

I also think Edward Cabrera could continue to evolve in Chicago, and he finally showed us what his potential could be with a solid season last year.

Starting Pitcher Targets: Tiers 6 and 7

Tier 6 is the "value tier" with guys like Taner Bibee, Kris Bubic, and Cade Horton all being really attractive targets right around pick 200. I am all in on Shane Baz, too, and have written about him multiple times this preseason (and he's on the cover of the article, for Pete's sake!).

Shane McClanahan and Carlos Rodon are both guys with plenty of injury history, but dynamic stuff. We also saw Aaron Nola come to life a bit this Spring with some added velocity that we hadn't seen in a few years. It's a pretty loaded range, with a lot of upside targets.

Tier 7 is pretty loaded, too, as Jack Leiter and Ryan Weathers continue to see their ADP push up the board. I'm probably not drafting Gerrit Cole, but the early reports on him have been positive.

I have been preaching that Shane Smith is a really good pitcher who a lot of people forget about - don't be one of those. And right on cue, Braxton Ashcraft shoved in his final spring training start, cementing his status as my favorite breakout after pick 250 (well, him and Cade Cavalli).

Starting Pitcher Targets: Tier 8

As you can see, things start to get dicey in this part of the draft. We have a lot of fades here and some very risky arms, but we are also at the stage of the draft where the risk you take is fairly minimal, too. I am out on Andrew Painter, but he did finish out spring training on a high note. I haven't been drafting Joey Cantillo, either, but I get the appeal there with his sickening changeup and strikeout upside.

Will Warren has been moving up the ranks, and on my board. If he can command his stuff, he could be pretty darn effective. Jose Soriano is really intriguing, too, as he is a master of groundballs who could see his strikeouts tick up if his new slider ends up being a legitimate weapon.

Parker Messick is probably starting the year at Triple-A, but I still think he's one of the three best pitchers in Cleveland and will make his way back up to the big leagues in short order. And Cavalli, whom I just touted in my bold predictions as a top-50 pitcher, is a guy I refuse to leave drafts without this season.

Starting Pitcher Targets: Tier 9

Logan Henderson can't seem to stay healthy; I'd be higher on him. We've been here before with Reid Detmers and Luis Gil; both have a ton of talent, but have burned us before.

I love Zebby Matthews, but he's probably the odd man out to start the season in Minnesota, which has caused his ADP to drop, while Mick Abel's has risen over 100 picks in the last week or two. I like both pitchers, but Abel is the guy to take with the rotation spot in hand.

Robby Snelling shouldn't be in Triple-A for long; he's a lefty with sickening stuff, and Miami's rotation is weak after Perez and Sandy Alcantara.

David Peterson and Grant Holmes aren't household names, but both are experienced veterans who are capable of moderate strikeouts and decent ratios. They feel like nice value options this slate.

Starting Pitcher Targets: Tier 10

If you're still drafting this late, then you're in my kind of league! There's still plenty of decent options this late, including an opening day starter in Matthew Liberatore, a super steady veteran (Mitch Keller), and a legend who refuses to retire (Max Scherzer).

You'll find supporters out there for Cristian Javier, Taj Bradley, and Johan Oviedo. I don't have a favorite there, but all of them could potentially pitch well enough to stick on your roster.

I am a bit intrigued with Rhett Lowder, who made the Reds rotation out of camp, and Slade Cecconi, who flashed some strikeout ability last year in Cleveland.

Starting Pitcher Targets: Tier 11

This is officially the "stash" tier, where you're mainly targeting some upside arms who will be starting in the minors, but could be up with their teams for at least half the year. Landen Roupp doesn't qualify there, but he's a guy I am interested in because of his wicked curveball and the possibility that Webb could help him use his sinker to get more groundballs.

Randy Vasquez had a great spring, with increased velocity and good batted-ball results. He's still young, and perhaps the Padres have fixed the issues that he had earlier in his career.

Alright, that's all I got for you. If you want to ask me any pitching-related questions, don't hesitate to reach out on X, and I'd be happy to assist. Good luck this season!

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