RADIO
A good week was had by most last weekend. We made a tidy profit on three of our four games and even the odd one out was a marginal loss (which would've cashed if a seemingly clear penalty decision was given). Still, a 140% ROI as we move into week 32. This week there are some really intriguing games but value isn't so easy to find so we'll be covering more games than normal with just a couple of picks from each.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offer the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 128-190-16 (-17.10 units & 94.51% ROI)
- Match results: 35-44
Friday, April 08th, 2022
Wolves (+266) at Newcastle United (+131) - 03:00 pm ET
The week kicks off on Friday with Wolves heading to a Newcastle side looking to end a run of three straight defeats after a 5-1 thumping at Tottenham last Sunday. Wolves won their Midlands derby against Aston Villa last weekend.
Newcastle will be pleased to be back at home following four straight away games with just one of their last seven games being at home. And they're unbeaten in their last five home games, winning their last three.
Newcastle have drawn nine games this season with seven of those ending 1-1. Wolves have only drawn four times all season and haven't done so in any of their last 13 EPL games. But only seven of Wolves' 31 games and three of their 15 away games have been decided by more than one goal.
I feel this will be a tight game, with Newcastle keen to end their recent losing streak so I'm leaning into this one being a draw.
We'll also play the cards market, with the appointment of Peter Bankes as the referee for this one.
Bankes has shown 46 yellow cards (and one red card) in nine EPL games this season, averaging 5.11 yellows per game. Newcastle's 71 cautions ranks second-most while Wolves tied-seventh with 55. Bankes has booked two players from both teams in eight of his nine games this season
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 1 Wolves
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Draw (+217) 1 unit
- Each team's total bookings - Over 1.5 (+110) 1 unit
Saturday, April 09th, 2022
Manchester United (-128) at Everton (+360) - 07:30 am ET
As poor as Manchester United have been in recent times, it doesn't come close to how bad Everton have been. Everton followed up last weekend's 2-1 defeat against West Ham with a 3-2 loss at Burnley in midweek, a game in which they led 2-1 at half-time.
Despite scoring twice in midweek, both goals came from the penalty spot and they've lacked any significant goal threat for weeks. Their goal against West Ham was via a deflected shot, their goal against Newcastle the game before came in the 99th minute and they failed to score in their four prior EPL games.
Despite only one defeat in their last 11 league games, Manchester United have just one win from their last four games and have just three clean sheets in their last 13 games. While they should be able to win this game comfortably, they'll likely need to score more than one to do so.
I'm also taking a small play on Bruno Fernandes to find the back of the net. He's failed to score in his last three games, but has registered 13 shots in that time and scored in back-to-back games prior to that. Fernandes also has four goals in four EPL games against Everton since joining Manchester United.
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 3 Manchester United
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Manchester United (-128) 1.5 units
- Both teams to score - Yes (-126) 1.5 units
- To score anytime - Bruno Fernandes (+180) 0.5 units
Leeds United (+165) at Watford (+175) - 10:00 am ET
This pick is as much a gut call than anything else. I edge Leeds winning but their form is too erratic to be confident in that. So I'm hedging into the game being a low-scoring affair.
Both teams brought in new managers this season and both have improved their teams defensively. Since Jesse Marsch took charge of Leeds, they've yet to keep a clean sheet but have conceded eight goals in five games (1.6 goals per game). Prior to his arrival, they conceded 60 goals in 25 games (2.4 per game).
The six goals they scored in their last five games all have come in their last three games, half of which came against the ten-men of Wolves. Prior to that game, they had failed to score in their previous three away games.
Roy Hodgson has been in charge for Watford's last ten league games, in which they've conceded 17 goals (1.7 goals per game). Prior to his arrival, Watford conceded 40 goals in 20 games (2.0 goals per game). They have only scored six goals in that time (0.6 per game).
I'm also playing a prop bet of Leeds having the most cards and corners. With 91 yellow cards this season, Leeds are easily the most penalized while Watford's 54 ranks them tenth. Watford's 127 corners taken ranks 18th while Leeds rank 11th with 144.
Watford have taken just 12 corners and been shown six yellow cards in their last five games. Leeds have taken 28 corners and been shown 17 yellow cards in their last five games.
Score prediction: Watford 1 - 1 Leeds United
Betting Picks
- Total goals - Under 2.5 (+111) 1 unit
- Single game parlay - Leeds United most corners & most cards (+285) 1 unit
Sunday, April 10th, 2022
West Ham United (+171) at Brentford (+184) - 09:00 am ET
West Ham played their Europa League quarter-final on Thursday and had to do so with just ten men in the second half, something which could impact their lineup and see some tired legs on Sunday.
Brentford's resurgence has coincided with Christian Erikson's signing. They've won all three games Erikson has started, scoring nine goals which included a stunning 4-1 victory at Chelsea last weekend.
Three of Brentford's last four games have seen both teams score while that has been the case in West Ham's last three games. While I'm not overly confident in Brentford winning the game, I certainly think both teams score.
I'm also playing the corners market. Brentford have taken the fewest corners this season (120), but we saw Everton have more corners than West Ham last weekend despite ranking second-fewest going into the game. And Brentford games have seen ten or more corners eight times in their last ten league games.
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 1 West Ham United
Betting Picks
- Draw no bet - Brentford (-102) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-115) 1 unit
- Total corners - Over 10 (+100) 1 unit
Crystal Palace (+215) at Leicester City (+141) - 09:00 am ET
Crystal Palace secured an impressive 3-0 win at home to Arsenal on Monday night, while Leicester played out a 1-1 draw at Manchester United on Saturday before drawing their Europa Conference League game with PSV Eindhoven 0-0 on Thursday.
Leicester's form hasn't been too bad, but it's been erratic with three wins, three draws and four losses in their last ten games. Monday's win saw Palace leapfrog Sunday's opponent in the league table and extended their unbeaten run to five games.
This will be just the third time Leicester have played a team currently in the top-10 after a midweek European game and they've yet to win one. Crystal Palace plays with so much energy and are quick to press their opponents, Leicester might struggle to cope if there's any fatigue in their legs.
I'm also backing Jean-Philippe Mateta to continue his recent form and score on Sunday. In his last four league starts, Mateta has scored three times with only Manchester City keeping him out. He's an aerial threat and no team has conceded more set-piece goals than Leicester so he has multiple routes to finding another goal (providing he starts the game).
Score prediction: Leicester City 0 - 2 Crystal Palace
Betting Picks
- Draw no bet - Crystal Palace (+125) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Jean-Philippe Mateta (+240) 1 unit
Burnley (+170) at Norwich City (+194) - 09:00 am ET
Our final game of the week sees 18th face 20th in the league table, with both teams desperate for a win. While Burnley can afford a draw (or a loss), Norwich losing would leave them at least nine points from safety with just seven games remaining. And I can't see Norwich managing a win.
Since securing back-to-back wins against Everton and Watford to end January, they've managed two draws and six defeats. They've scored five goals in that run, failing to score more than one in any game and have conceded 18 with last week's 0-0 draw against Brighton being the only clean sheet.
I don't see Burnley playing out another 3-2 game like they did on Wednesday and I expect this to be a much tighter affair. But they should have enough to see off Norwich on the road.
Prior to Wednesday, Burnley had scored three goals in a game on three occasions. Each time, they followed it up with a draw or win (one win and two draws). They failed to score more than one in any of those games. Wednesday also ended a four-game goalless streak for Burnley.
The reverse fixture earlier in the season ended 0-0 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat, but I do give the edge to Burnley. Wednesday was only the second time in Burnley's last 12 games in which both teams scored.
Score prediction: Norwich City 0 - 1 Burnley
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Burnley (+170) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - No (-110) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
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