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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/29/21. Brian Entrekin's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
We have a 6-game main slate on tap tonight, and it's an ugly one. The pitching on tonight's slate is quite atrocious, with Framber Valdez and Sonny Gray leading the way in the chalk department. There are 12 teams in play, and one could argue to stack any of the 12 teams and would not be wrong. The Astros, Reds, and Jays will lead the way as the popular stacks, and for a good reason, but there are some exciting spots to be different. Listen in to MLB DFS Quick Hits for a full slate rundown with some contrarian strategies.
The slate starts with which pitchers to build around. Most will go to Framber and Sonny, followed by some Stripling. I think you can play one of these, but I would not double up on the chalk. To make myself different, I am looking into some Nestor Cortez with contrarian looks at Crowe, Lynch, and maybe some Senzetela. After that disgusting decision, I will load up on all the bats. Astros, Reds, Jays, and Braves are all in play, oh don't forget Coors too, but playing teams like the Pirates will really make your lineups different. If looking to take down a tournament today, do not worry about making a lineup that makes you feel good. There will be some really uncomfortable builds tonight.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 8/5/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter @bdentrek.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Framber Valdez - P, HOU vs. MIN ($9,900)
It was quite the month of July for Framber. Overall, he was excellent in his six starts, throwing at least five innings in five of six starts and allowed two earned runs or less in four of six starts. Framber also had 19 or more DK points in three starts but seven or less in three starts. The biggest problem for Framber has been walks. Framber walked five or more in three starts, lowering his depth in the game and overall production. Strikeouts have been ok, but not great, but it's definitely the walks. If Framber can fix that problem, and that's a big if it has been a problem in his career, he will be good to go. Tonight, he will take on a Twins team striking out 23.4% of the time versus LHP since July 1 and now has no Nelson Cruz and likely no Josh Donaldson. The lineup as a whole is awful, and Framber should be able to carve them up if the control is there.
Nestor Cortes - P, NYY vs. SEA ($7,900)
Most will go to Gray or Stripling tonight, but this is where I start to get different. Insert Nestor Cortes. I would love for Cortes to be a little cheaper, but I will take my chances with Cortes strikeout upside. In July, Cortes struck out 14 in 15 innings pitched while allowing only five runs and walking two. Cortes has been very effective and has increased his pitch count to 79. Meaning we should see 90-95 pitches tonight. The other reason I like Cortes is the matchup versus the Mariners. Over the past month, the Mariners are striking out 26.7% of the time versus LHP with a .217 average and 90 wRC+. So your SP2 tonight is not going to feel comfortable unless you eat all of the chalk. If you don't want the chalk, then Cortes, Crowe, and company check the boxes in my contrarian brain.
Other Options: Sonny Gray (CIN vs. PIT) $9,300, Wil Crowe (PIT at CIN) $6,900, Daniel Lynch (KC at CWS) $6,300
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Martin Maldonado - C, HOU vs. Griffin Jax ($2,500)
The Astros will be very popular tonight, and Maldonado could make your Astros exposure a bit different. He comes into tonight's game hitting safely in seven of his last nine games, good for a .300 average. He has five extra-base hits, including two home runs, a .300 ISO, and a .982 OPS. Maldonado is swinging it well and gets a nice matchup versus Jax tonight, who has allowed 19 runs in 26.2 innings this season, including seven home runs. I like Maldonado in stacks or even as a one-off for value alone and some cheap Astros exposure.
Joey Votto - 1B, CIN vs. Wil Crowe ($5,700)
The 37-year-old wonder, Joey Votto, has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball and gets a juicy matchup in Great American Small Park tonight. Votto is hitting .316 over his last 10 games with NINE home runs. His .737 ISO and 1.466 OPS is just insane. Even with all the power, Votto is still walking 15.2% of the time over the 10-game stretch. As one would expect with so much power, the quality of contact has been great as Votto is barreling the ball 31% of the time with a 58.6% hard-hit rate. If paying up at first base tonight or stacking the Reds, make sure to lock in Votto as he is the top option tonight.
Jorge Polanco - 2B, MIN at Framber Valdez ($3,800)
Polanco heads into tonight's action, swinging an excellent bat for the Twins, one of the few Twins players we can say that about. Polanco has hit safely in his last eight games, good for a .378 average. Polanco is even flexing his muscle with four home runs over the eight games, a .378 ISO, and a 1.157 OPS. Polanco is locked in, and even in a tough matchup versus Valdez, he is in play. Polanco is hitting .268 with an ISO near .200 versus RHP, but he has really improved those numbers over the last few weeks. Polanco and the Twins will not be rostered much, making Polanco and his massive upside extremely low-rostered tonight.
Amed Rosario- SS, CLE at Ross Stripling ($3,600)
Rosario heads into tonight's action hitting safely in nine of his last 11 games for a .318 average. He has six extra-base hits and three stolen bases over the stretch to go with a .867 OPS. In five of his last six games, Rosario has scored eight or more DK points and has double-digit points in three of those games. He will face Stripling tonight, who has shown reverse splits, allowing RHH to hit .271 with a .522 SLG and 2.3 HR/9. Stripling has been messy this season and makes for a nice Cleveland stack. Look at pairing up Rosario with Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes for starters.
Abraham Toro - 2B/3B, SEA at Nestor Cortes ($3,500)
Toro heads into tonight's game scorching hot. He has hit safely in nine of ten games for a .412 average with eight extra-base hits, including five home runs. In addition, Toro has a .529 ISO, 1.428 OPS, and a 10.3% walk rate over the ten-game stretch. Toro is doing it all at the plate right now yet continues to stay very affordable while hitting in the middle of the Mariners' lineup. Tonight he faces Cortes, which bodes well for a few at-bats as Toro is hitting .367 versus LHP with a .824 OPS this season. Toro should definitely be your guy if you are not using Cortes or want a one-off contrarian play versus your Cortes shares.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
George Springer - OF, TOR vs. Tristan McKenzie ($5,500)
Springer is trying to take Votto's tag as the hottest hitter in baseball, and he may have. Springer brings a seven-game hitting streak into tonight's game, hitting .517 with a .586 ISO and a 1.662 ISO. Springer has nine extra-base hits over the seven games, including four home runs. Everything Springer hits is hit well as he is barreling the ball 27.3% of the time with a 68.2% hard-hit rate. Tonight he faces McKenzie, who has made three starts since his recall in the 20th. He has allowed 13 runs over 14 innings with six home runs. The Jays are a great play tonight, and all your stacks should start with Springer.
Michael Brantley- OF, HOU vs. Griffin Jax ($3,100)
When talking about the star Astros' hitters, Brantley is always the forgotten man and always cheap. The Astros' number two hitter has hit safely in five straight games with two extra-base hits and a 5.3% strikeout rate. His plate discipline is always off the chart. He will face Jax tonight, which bodes well for Brantley and the Astros. Do not forget about Brantley when building lineups tonight. He fits in cash games and makes a nice wrap-around value Astros' stack with Maldonado and company.
Jorge Soler - OF, ATL at Wade LeBlanc ($3,300)
Another article and another time to write about Soler. The dude keeps mashing; it's incredible for such an affordable outfielder. Soler has hit safely in seven of his last nine games, good for a .353 average. But, it's the power we all care about. Soler has hit six home runs over the nine-game stretch, including home runs in back-to-back games. He has a .559 ISO and 1.317 OPS as well. As one would expect with such power, Soler's quality of contact is great as he is barreling the ball 26.1% of the time to go with a 56.5% hard-hit rate. He will face LeBlanc tonight, which bodes well as LeBlanc is allowing RHH to hit .315 with a .495 SLG and 1.4 HR/9. The Braves are definitely back in play tonight, which makes Soler another strong option for your builds.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Houston Astros (Griffin Jax, RHP)
- Cincinnati Reds (Wil Crowe, RHP)
- Toronto Blue Jays (Tristan McKenzie, RHP)
- Sneaky Stacks- Pittsburgh Pirates (Sonny Gray, RHP)
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