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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/6/21. Brian Entrekin's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
We have a 14-game main slate on tap tonight, and it should be a fun one. There is plenty of pitching, starting with deGoat himself, Jacob deGrom. I do not love a ton of cheaper pitching options, but I have six or seven I do not mind using: I breakdown a few below but many more on MLB DFS Quick Hits. For the bats, there will be aplenty. There are some game stacks to like and some sneakier options to get down on to save some money to pay up for deGoat.
The slate starts with which pitchers to build around. Do you start with deGrom and then pay up for a second option? Do you eat the chalkier options in Framber or Castillo? There are a lot of ways to build your pitchers, depending on your level of risk. With 14 games, there will be plenty of places to target bats. The Jays should be extremely popular again tonight in Camden Yards, while the Padres should provide a nice late-night hammer. There are a lot of stacks in between and potential at lower ownership that really piques my interest. Make sure to check out Quick Hits for my full approach to tonight's slate.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/6/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter @bdentrek.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Merrill Kelly - P, AZ vs. COL ($9,200)
Now I could write up deGrom or Framber, but that is too easy. You know why those are great plays, or I hope you do by now. I wanted to break down Kelly right now and discuss why he is a nice GPP pivot even though he is over $9K tonight. Well, we can start there; he is over $9K. Kelly has lived in the low $7K and high $6K ranges; many will see the price and move along. Next, Kelly is actually pitching really well of late. Kelly has thrown at least six innings in each of his last three starts, allowing no more than three runs in any of those starts and one run or less in two starts. He has five or more K's in each of the starts while walking a total of one over the three-game stretch, good for a 20.5% K-BB%. Kelly will take on the Road Rockies tonight, who has struck out 30.6% of the time versus RHP on the road over the last month. They are only hitting .183 with a .122 ISO versus RHP over that same stretch. It is always risky with Kelly, but he has put up 20+ DK points in three straight starts. If he can make it four straight at virtually no ownership, you will be way ahead of the field.
Luis Castillo - P, CIN at KC ($8,500)
Castillo should be a bit more popular tonight, but this is a spot to keep riding as Castillo is looking more and more like the ace we have grown to love. Castillo has allowed three runs are less in each of his last six starts, including three starts with one run or less. He has thrown at least six innings in five starts while striking out five or more in each start. Castillo is still showing his walk problems with three walks in four of the six starts but still has a 15.2% K-BB%. He will take on a Royals team striking out nearly 22% of the time over the last month versus RHP while hitting .244 and a .123 ISO. On paper, it is a great matchup for Castillo, and he should be in the $9K price range. Castillo should be popular, but for me, Castillo checks the "good chalk" box. If you want to be different, there are plenty of ways to go, like pivoting to Anderson or Ohtani in the same price range.
Other Options: Jacob deGrom (NYM vs MIL) $11,500, Chris Bassitt (OAK at HOU) $9,800, Framber Valdez (HOU vs OAK) $9,500, Nate Eovaldi (BOS at LAA) $8,900, Ian Anderson (ATL at PIT) $8,600, Shohei Ohtani (LAA vs BOS) $8,300
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
J.T. Realmuto - C, PHI at Jake Arrieta ($3,700)
It has been a quiet go this season for Realmuto, and that has made his pricetag drop in a big way. JTR used to be in the high $4K or low $5K range and has dropped quite a bit. He has dropped to a price I do not remember seeing him at for some time. That means I am back on board with one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He comes into tonight's juicy matchup hitting safely in three of his last four games with a double and a home run. He had a 13.3% barrel rate and 53.3% hard-hit rate over this short stretch as well. Hopefully, JTR is getting locked in, and we shall know tonight as he faces Arrieta. On the season, Arrieta is allowing RHH to hit .266 with a .500 SLG and 2.1 HR/9. Many are yelling for Arrieta to get DFA'd, and after tonight, he just may as the Phillies should pound him. They make for a great stack, and the fact you get their cleanup hitter, JTR, at such an affordable price is just gravy for the stack.
Garrett Cooper - 1B/OF, MIA vs. Tony Gonsolin ($3,500)
I have been pounding the Cooper drum for some time, especially since his recent return from the IL. He has hit safely in six of his nine games since his return, good for a .500 average!!!! He is pounding the ball, too, with a 26.7% barrel rate and 53.3% hard-hit rate, which has helped lead to a .364 ISO and 298 wRC+. Cooper has also shown insane patience (which could come into play tonight) with a 26.7% walk rate, helping lead to a 1.497 OPS. These are video game stats from Cooper. He faces Gonsolin tonight, and it is a better matchup than people think. Gonsolin has gone only four innings once in his five appearances (four starts) since his return from the IL. He has limited the damage over that stretch, but his FIP and xFIP say he may have been a bit lucky. More importantly, he has had major walk issues, which could really play into Cooper's hand. The Marlins could be a sneaky stack tonight, but Cooper makes a great value play worse. Stop overlooking the man and plug him in some lineups.
Ramon Urias - 2B/SS, BAL vs Steven Matz ($2,900)
The Orioles are in a great spot tonight and will likely get overlooked in the same game as the Jays should smash as well. That sounds like some low-rostered O's that could help win some tournaments tonight. The O's have some nice value in this juicy matchup, and that starts with Urias. Urias has hit safely in six of seven games since he was recalled from the minors. He has four extra-base hits, a .240 ISO, and 187 wRC+. His plate discipline has been outstanding, with a 13.8% walk rate to go with a 10.3% strikeout rate. He is locked in at the plate and gets a juicy matchup versus Matz. Matz returned from the IL for his last start and only made in 2.2 innings while allowing four runs on five hits. He has now allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts. Matz is allowing RHH to hit .272 this season with a .446 SLG and 1.4 HR/9. The O's are in a great spot tonight, and the Urias value is too good to pass up.
J.P. Crawford - SS, SEA vs. Jameson Taillon ($3,900)
The Mariners/Yankees game could be a late-night hammer with two disappointing pitchers, but they also have two equally disappointing offenses facing off. If not stacking things up, at least you can look at Crawford, who is having one heck of a season. Crawford has hit safely in 17 of his last 18 games and brings a six-game hitting streak into tonight's game. Crawford has three extra-base hits over the six-game streak and walking 10% of the time while only striking out 3.3% of the time. Crawford's plate discipline has been elite, and he gets a nice matchup versus Taillon tonight. On the season, Taillon is allowing LHH to hit .271 with a .535 SLG and 2.6 HR/9. Crawford makes for a great cash gameplay and a part of a sneaky yet risky Mariners stack that will be virtually non-rostered tonight.
Eugenio Suarez - 3B, CIN at Kris Bubic ($3,900)
Suarez has been an utter disappointment this season, and his discounted DK price tag tells us just that. Suarez received a few days off, and reports came out that he adjusted his swing to get to the ball quicker. So far, so good as he has now hit safely in four straight games and a 431' home run on Monday. He barreled the ball 11.1% of the time with a 44% hard-hit rate over the four-game hit streak. Suarez and the Reds will face Bubic, who has allowed eight runs over his last two appearances (4.2 innings), including three home runs in his last start versus the Red Soz. On the season, he is allowing RHH to hit .274 with a .488 SLG and nearly 2 HR/9. The Reds are in a smash spot tonight, and Suarez could be a very nice, cheap piece of a Reds stack.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Joey Gallo - OF, TEX vs. Jose Urena ($4,700)
Mr. Joseph Gallo is absolutely raking these days. He has hit safely in six of his last eight games, good for a .370 average. More importantly, the power is in full force with eight home runs over the stretch with a .889 ISO. He is still walking a ton, 18.9% of the time, which helps with a ridiculous 1.744 OPS. Oh, it gets crazier. Over the eight-game stretch, Gallo is barreling the ball 56.3% of the time with a 75% hard-hit rate. If Gallo swings, he is essentially crushing a baseball and, hopefully, the opposing pitcher's soul. He faces Urena tonight, who has allowed 25 runs over his last 13 innings pitched (four starts). He is allowing LHH to hit .318 with a .565 SLG and 1.9 HR/9. Stack up the Rangers tonight and play Gallo everywhere you can tonight.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - OF, TOR at Dean Kremer ($4,200)
The Jays will be popular tonight, and most will go with the usual suspects when stacking them, but do not forget Gurriel. Gurriel got off to a slow start to the season but appears to be waking up. He has hit safely in 10 of his last 13 games, good for a .313 average. The power has arrived with five doubles, three home runs, and a .292 ISO. He is barreling the ball 10% of the time with a 45% hard-hit rate. He faces Kremer, who has allowed 12 runs over his last three appearances (11.2 innings) since rejoining the Orioles rotation. On the season, he is allowing RHH to hit .304 with a .580 SLG and 2.6 HR/9. Most will stack up the big names at the top of the Jays' order but do not forget about Gurriel, who has been swinging it well and will give you some savings on the stack.
Cedric Mullins - OF, BAL vs. Steven Matz ($3,900)
Mullins being below $4K is just laughable, especially versus a pitcher like Matz. Mullins comes into tonight's game swinging it well. He has hit safely in eight of his last 11 games, good for a .366 average. He has six extra-base hits, including three home runs. Mullins has also tossed in three stolen bases over that stretch. He has a .244 ISO and 1.032 OPS as well. Some may see a lefty-lefty matchup and run away, well don't. Mullins is hitting .307 this season versus LHP with a .188 ISO and .495 SLG. Mullins is raking, and the Orioles should pound Matz tonight. STACK EM UP!!!!!
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles GAME STACK (Steven Matz, LHP vs. Dean Kremer, RHP)
- Texas Rangers (Jose Urena, RHP)
- Philadelphia Phillies (Jake Arrieta, RHP)
- San Diego Padres (Patrick Corbin, LHP)
- Sneaky Stacks- Arizona Diamondbacks (Jon Gray, RHP)
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