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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 6/25/21. Euan Leith's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Among the 16 games playing today, 13 find themselves on the main slate. The three games we miss are the Phillies-Mets doubleheader and then the Rockies-Brewers clash. Fortunately, 13 is more than enough to build several fantastic DFS lineups. Plus, the pitching is plentiful, and there are some stacks to stumble over. As for the weather, it's officially summer, and the temperature is rising steadily. Unfortunately, the Houston-Detroit game seems to be the exception. There's over a 50 percent chance of rain in the Motor City. Plus, the wind expects to blow upwards of 16 miles per hour. It wouldn't affect groundball-pitching guru Framber Valdez all that much, but it would be a shame to lose him as an option on this slate.
DFS managers are not short on options when it comes to pitching tonight. We can go with the upper class in Carlos Rodon versus a free-swinging Mariners lineup. Or, we can pivot down to a Jon Lester in an enticing matchup against a floundering Marlins offense. Whichever way you choose to go, make sure to have one of the many anchors available to your lineup tonight. If you're trying to catch the big one, put a couple of weird combinations on the line and see what you can catch. But, if we play some cash lineups, let's stick with the trustworthy arms in fantastic matchups.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 6/25/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, find me on Twitter and ask away.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Framber Valdez - P, HOU at DET ($10,200)
After a finger injury nearly cost him the entire season, Framber Valdez has returned to the Houston rotation and is picking up right where he left off in his breakout 2020. In five starts this season, Valdez is 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and has 29 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings. Over his last 14 regular-season starts dating back to last season, the southpaw has pitched at least six innings in 12 contests and at least seven innings in 10 of the 14 games. In that same span, he's sporting a 3.04 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA, and an elite 63.6 percent groundball rate. Meanwhile, Valdez's opponent, the Tigers, strike out versus left-handed pitching 26.3 percent of the time. His ability to go deep into games, plus the enticing strikeout matchup, make Valdez a perfect SP1 candidate.
Chris Paddack - P, SD vs. ARI ($8,800)
*Please sing to the tune of Bohemian Rhapsody*
"Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Chris Paddack's striking out everyone that he can see."
Okay, the last line is a bit of a stretch, but it can totally work if you try hard enough! Anyways, enough with the Queen parodies and more analysis on the up-and-coming Prince in San Diego. Chris Paddack is turning his season around, and I'm ready to preach it to anyone that will listen that the Padres young arm is back in business.
Over his last three starts, the 25-year old has a 37.7 percent strikeout rate and a 2.9 percent walk rate. His 1.60 xFIP and 2.12 SIERA outshine his 3.71 ERA, and it's turning me into a Paddack believer. I would be more cautious if he were facing a challenging lineup, but, alas, he is not. Since May 1, the Arizona Diamondbacks strike out 25.7 percent of the time, and they've compiled a measly 71 weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) versus righties. Paddack=profit, and profit=winning DFS lineups. Get him in your lineups and watch the fantasy points rise like a Freddy Mercury falsetto.
Other options: Carlos Rodon vs. SEA ($10,700), Griffin Canning at TB ($8,000), Vladimir Gutierrez vs. ATL ($7,300), Jon Lester at MIA ($6,700)
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Sean Murphy - C, OAK at Johnny Cueto ($4,000)
The Battle for the Bay begins in San Francisco tonight, and Sean Murphy will continue his ascension up the ranks as one of the best young catchers in the game. On the season, Murphy sports a respectable .782 OPS with 10 home runs and 39 RBI in 62 games.
Recently, he's developed a 10-game on-base streak, and it's taking his game to the next level. The 26-year old is slashing .313/.476/.750 with a .505 weighted on-base average and a .438 ISO during this streak. In addition, the strikeout rate (16.7 percent) is down, the walk rate (16.7 percent) is up, and it's all coming together for the former top-prospect as summer rolls around.
Tyler Stephenson - 1B/C, CIN vs. Drew Smyly ($4,200)
I can't stop playing Tyler Stephenson when a lefty is on the mound. It feels like the fourth straight Friday I've picked this guy, but today I'll slide him into my first base slot. He's been incredibly effective versus southpaws this season, and he hits far better at home than he does on the road. In Great American Ballpark, Stephenson hits to the tune of a .339/.453/.516 slash line overall, and his OPS shoots up from .969 to 1.059 when we split it up into home games versus only left-handed pitching.
It's a bit of a dangerous game to get the sample sizes so small, but the Reds backup catcher has come through for me several times this year. With the platoon advantage versus a homer-happy Drew Smyly, I like Stephenson as part of a mini-Reds stack if you can afford it.
Adam Frazier - 2B, PIT at Adam Wainwright ($3,800)
Thanks to Adam Frazier and Ke'Bryan Hayes, the Pittsburgh lineup isn't as flat as initially feared in 2021. While Hayes (wrist) missed two months, Frazier is a constant atop the Pirates lineup card. He's played 72 games and is well on pace for a 200-hit season while compiling a .330 batting average and a .873 OPS.
Per Baseball Savant, Frazier has a lot of success versus fastballs this year with a .327 batting average and a .481 slugging percentage. Those tendencies will match up well with Adam Wainwright, who throws his fastball, cutter, and sinker a combined 60.3 percent of the time. Frazier is in fine form and has a plus matchup while costing less than $4,000 for a leadoff spot. That's enough for me to lock the 29-year old into my lineups.
Abraham Toro - 3B, HOU at Wily Peralta ($3,500)
It looks like DraftKings finally got fed up with giving us the free square to play Toro in the red-hot Astros offense. His salary in the Baltimore series this week was in the mid-$2,000s, and now it's up to a respectable $3,500. Regardless, I'll take discounted exposure to this offense anywhere I can get it. During Houston's 11-game win streak, their offense is averaging 8.4 runs per game, and they've scored at least 10 runs in four of their last eight wins. This is excellent news up and down the offense, and Toro is benefitting greatly.
Since the Astros recalled him on June 16, the switch-hitting third baseman is 10-for-27 (.370 batting average) with five runs, two home runs, 10 RBI, and a stolen base. Of course, this offense will eventually slow down, but it probably won't be tonight versus Wily Peralta and his 7.11 ERA and 13 percent barrel rate.
Xander Bogaerts - SS, BOS vs. Domingo German ($5,000)
DraftKings has fallen head over heels in love with shortstops on today's slate with Fernando Tatis Jr., Trea Turner, and Bo Bichette are all priced above $6,000. In total, there are seven shortstops over $5,000, and Xander Bogaerts is the cheapest of the lot. It's not like the two-time All-Star is slouching either, as he's earned a .932 OPS on the season and is slashing .297/.409/.541 in his last 10 contests. Bogaerts is firmly entrenched in the heart of the Boston lineup, with 91 percent of his starts coming as the Red Sox cleanup hitter this year. The opposing pitcher, Domingo German, allows 1.83 home runs per nine innings, and it's easy to envision Bogaerts adding his 14th round-tripper of the campaign to his box score on Friday.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Adolis Garcia - OF, TEX vs. Mike Minor ($4,600)
Tonight, we are going home-run hunting in Texas with Adolis Garcia. The outfielder is one of the breakout stars in 2021, and his slugging tendencies are not fading away. During the Ranger's current homestand (seven games), Garcia is sporting a 1.026 OPS and a .500 ISO. So try to avoid looking at the strikeout rate (38 percent) and run with the fact this player can make your DFS night with one swing of the bat. In the same seven games, the 28-year old has five runs, two doubles, four home runs, and five RBI and will have the opportunity to add to those counting stats against Mike Minor and the Royals bullpen.
Alex Kirilloff - 1B/OF, MIN vs. Chad Quantrill ($3,400)
Kirilloff's standing has fallen in recent weeks within the Twins lineup, but he's starting to make more contact, and his expected stats are telling us there should be an uptick in production sooner rather than later. Over the rookie's previous 12 games, he's batting .295 with a .809 OPS and an extremely favorable 10.4 percent strikeout rate. Meanwhile, his season line is a .260 batting average and a .427 slugging percentage, but his expected stats say those rates should be at .310 and .583, respectively. It only seems like a matter of time until Kirilloff puts it all together, and I'm willing to take that bet with his $3,400 price tag on Friday.
Tony Kemp - 2B/OF, OAK at Johnny Cueto ($3,400)
I mentioned Kemp on Wednesday as the new leadoff hitter for the Oakland A's, and he's continuing to turn a profit for DFS players. While their AL West Rival, Houston, is the talk of the town, it's been lost that Oakland has won 15 of their last 21 games and producing some solid offense. Kemp is on a 13-game on-base streak and giving his teammates as many chances as possible to drive him in.
Over his last 10 games, the utility man slashes .396/.485/.736 with nine runs, five doubles, two triples, three home runs, and 11 RBI. $3,400 feels like a silly price point for someone in Kemp's current form. However, he's also useful as a wraparound mini-stack with Sean Murphy, who I mentioned earlier.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (Matt Harvey, RHP)
- Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers (Wily Peralta, RHP)
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs (Jake Arrieta, RHP)
- Sneaky stack: Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners (Yusei Kikuchi, LHP)
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