RADIO
The last great regular season of college football is over. Now we have the last exciting conference championship week. Sure, a conference championship may still mean something in the expanded playoff, but not like it will this weekend. The Pac-12 championship is huge. If Oregon wins, both could be left out. If Michigan loses, they're done. If Texas loses, they're done. This is the beginning of the playoff, even with only four teams!
Conference USA and the Pac-12 get us started tonight, and boy is that Pac-12 one huge! Only one Pac-12 team has made the playoff in the previous nine years (Washington in 2016). I want to say that an Oregon win would put both of them in, but a lot would have to happen for that to transpire, even though the Pac-12 is the best top-to-bottom conference this season.
It's championship week. Enough said. We have two of them tonight and the other 10 tomorrow. Let's do it!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 14 (12/1/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
New Mexico State at Liberty (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Let's see...Liberty won the first meeting by 16 points. Is New Mexico State five points better than in Week 2? Probably, but this place is going to be rocking more than usual. I'll take Liberty.
(5) Oregon (-9.5) vs. (3) Washington at Las Vegas, NV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is absurd. Maybe Oregon does pull it off on a neutral field, but it won't be by double figures. I still believe in Michael Penix and Washington.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the bad along with the good? Here are the results from this season so far. I am still updating the past year's results and adding them to the sheet. My first year of using the points system (2015) was a good one. This year hasn't been quite as good. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Bowling Green (-2.5) at Western Michigan: HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
The Falcons may be 7-5, but they will be a tough out in bowl season.
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
Samson Evans gets to go bowling this year. He deserves it! It also feels good to be 7-4 picking the Eagles this year after going 1-11 last year...
(12) Mississippi (-10.5) at Mississippi State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Another slow start by the Rebels and the half on my side prevented a poor Thanksgiving Day.
TCU at (13) Oklahoma (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Man, where was this when we needed it against Kansas and Oklahoma State?
(17) Iowa at Nebraska (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Iowa wins again on a last-second field goal and the under smashes. It was a great early day on Friday! I do hope Chubba Purdy returns to Nebraska. He could do a lot of good things under Matt Rhule.
Miami (FL) (-10.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I feel bad for Thomas Castellanos. That team around him is damn awful.
Memphis (-12.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
E.J. Warner looked good, Memphis covered, and the over hit. What more could we ask for?
Toledo (-10.5) at Central Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a nice warm-up for Peny Boone. Can you imagine if he had stayed at Maryland?
Ohio (-13.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Akron's defense fell apart in the second half, but their staying competitive this year is a win for the program.
UTSA at (23) Tulane (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the worst game I have ever seen Frank Harris play and it is almost all the fault of the Tulane defense. I watched him several times as a freshman and he didn't make the mistakes that he did in this one. Thankfully, the Roadrunners have a bowl game to make sure this isn't the last of his legacy in San Antonio.
Utah State (-6.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Lobos didn't hang on to win outright, but they did push this to double overtime and somehow avoided the cover.
(9) Missouri (-8.5) at Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew I was in trouble in that first series after KJ Jefferson went down. Arkansas was completely lost without him. In all fairness, Missouri probably would have covered anyway.
Air Force at Boise State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm surprised that it stayed within single digits.
Texas Tech at (7) Texas (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This wasn't the moment for Quinn Ewers that the Longhorns were waiting on, but it was a dominant performance by the Texas defense.
(11) Penn State (-21.5) at Michigan State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Penn State acted like they had something to prove here. Drew Allar needed this game.
(16) Oregon State at (6) Oregon (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
So much for pride. Not only do the Beavers get smoked, but the coach and quarterback leave in less than a week.
(2) Ohio State at (3) Michigan (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Now Ryan Day knows exactly how Jim Harbaugh felt before Connor Stallions was hired. Buckeye fans are calling for his head. They couldn't be more wrong. Sure, some things should probably have been done differently. Hindsight is always 20/20. That doesn't mean Day should be fired.
Now...this whole sign-stealing thing should blow over. Ohio State went out and got beat. You know that Ohio State changed their signs and if Michigan stole them this time, they were far more discreet. I thought there was more to it and that there should have been a deeper investigation. Now that the Buckeyes lost anyway, this issue is put to bed. Maybe it's for the best, but I doubt it.
Kentucky at (10) Louisville (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This could have been a special season for Louisville. Instead, they lose to two unranked teams.
Texas A&M at (14) LSU (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A&M hung around thanks to Jaylen Henderson. If he sticks around, the Aggies could be very good next year. The talent is there.
Indiana at Purdue (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A 17-point fourth quarter by the Boilermakers ruined this for me.
Middle Tennessee State (-3.5) at Sam Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better with the way MTSU has been playing.
Connecticut (-2.5) at Massachusetts: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There's a reason I didn't want to bet this. The good UConn showed up.
Pittsburgh at Duke (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nate Yarnell looked good, but so did the Duke defense.
Houston at Central Florida (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It wasn't the normal Houston collapse. They just got outplayed.
Navy at SMU (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Preston Stone had his best game of the season.
Troy (-16.5) at Southern Mississippi: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The gimmicky offense was no match for Troy's defense.
Northern Illinois (-18.5) at Kent State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Devin Kargman finally gave Kent fans something to cheer about and they still lost. Maybe they should have tried this two months ago...
Miami (OH) (-5.5) at Ball State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Marquez Cooper put on a show for the Muncie faithful, but the game-winning field goal got blocked to send the Redhawks to Detroit.
Florida Atlantic at Rice (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Rice goes bowling, but JT Daniels didn't play. Luke McCaffrey sure did!
Wake Forest at Syracuse (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Michael Kern and Taylor Morin had me sweating this a lot more than I wanted to.
Tulsa at East Carolina (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I guess I'm not done losing money on Tulsa after all...
UAB at North Texas (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew that I liked it better at -3.5...
Georgia State at Old Dominion (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's not often that a team wins and doesn't cover the -2.5 spread. A wild 18-point fourth quarter capped a massive comeback for the Monarchs to send them bowling.
Western Kentucky (-10.5) at Florida International: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Austin Reed that we know and love was back for the finale.
Colorado at Utah (-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If I had known that the Utes were going to pull this stunt, I would have taken Colorado...
(22) Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have left the bet higher and not chickened out. This was never a game.
San Jose State at UNLV (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Spartans are better than anyone realizes. So is UNLV, come to think of it...
(8) Alabama (-14.5) at Auburn: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How in the world do you allow a touchdown on 4th and Montgomery? Iron Bowl gonna Iron Bowl...
(15) Arizona (-10.5) at Arizona State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Superman himself couldn't have kept the Fun Devils in this game.
BYU at (20) Oklahoma State (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Pokes needed five Ollie Gordon touchdowns and two overtimes to avoid getting embarrassed on their own field.
Vanderbilt at (21) Tennessee (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Thanks for those two garbage touchdowns on Tennessee's second unit in the fourth quarter.
(25) Liberty (-16.5) at UTEP: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Too bad Liberty kicked on the cruise after the first quarter.
Northwestern at Illinois (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was the most entertaining Big Ten game that I've watched in quite some time.
Wisconsin (-2.5) at Minnesota: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I can't imagine Minnesota would fire P.J. Fleck, but this year certainly tested that theory.
Maryland (-1.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Gimme that easy money! I sure needed it!
Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Virginia Tech proved beyond a doubt that they should be in a bowl, so I'm just going to celebrate the fact that I get to watch Kyron Drones one more time this year.
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Every time I lowered the bet this week, the team I bet on smashed.
James Madison (-8.5) at Coastal Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jordan McCloud deserves to be in a bowl game. I'm glad that the NCAA did the right thing and let James Madison and Jacksonville State in over 5-7 teams. It doesn't even matter where you send them. Those two fan bases are going to follow and make some bowl more cash than they usually get.
Arkansas State at Marshall (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It wasn't even Rasheen Ali who trampled the Red Wolves. It was Ethan Payne...
Washington State at (4) Washington (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Huskies escaped again, but that's my point about them. They find ways to do that. Not all teams do.
Jacksonville State (-2.5) at New Mexico State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I like the Gamecocks, but this line was bogus. Nothing personal, this is just business.
(5) Florida State (-6.5) at Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a very anticlimactic Seminole Cup.
(18) Notre Dame (-25.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Audric Estime did more for his draft stock in this game than he had all season combined.
West Virginia (-9.5) at Baylor: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If you just look at the stats, Baylor had no business hanging around in this game. Richard Reese was the only reason they did. West Virginia dominated every other part of the game.
South Alabama (-5.5) at Texas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is just your friendly reminder that Bo Nix was once benched in favor of current Texas State starting quarterback T.J. Finley.
Kansas (-10.5) at Cincinnati: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a bogus line.
(1) Georgia (-24.5) at Georgia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's amazing how much better Georgia Tech got through subtraction (of Jeff Sims).
(24) Clemson (-7.5) at South Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's a good thing for Clemson that their defense is still excellent. The offense...WOOF!
Charlotte at South Florida (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I really hope Byrum Brown sticks around in Tampa.
Iowa State at (19) Kansas State (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have maxed this out. Farmageddon delivers, as usual.
North Carolina (-2.5) at (22) North Carolina State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Easy money.
Wyoming (-10.5) at Nevada: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
More easy money, even if Wyoming did use Andrew Peasley more as running back than quarterback.
California at UCLA (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If Chip Kelly winds up getting fired, he earned it.
Fresno State (-5.5) at San Diego State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Mikey Keene was healthy, but the Aztecs sent Brady Hoke out in style. Just the way it should be.
Colorado State (-5.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Schager wins the battle of the Braydens.
College Football Betting Season Results
A great start to the week soured with a rough end to Friday and the start of Saturday. I rallied to finish 32-33 on the week. That puts me at 364-376 on the season. I'm 12 games under .500, but I know I won money overall this week. My four-pointers were solid.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 0-4 (24-43) = -19
2. 8-17 (134-149) = -30
3. 15-8 (126-124) = 6
4. 8-3 (52-42) = 40
5. 1-1 (27-18) = 45
The threes and fours saved my week as I gained 19 points. That puts me up 42 points on the entire season despite being 12 games under. It's all about where you hit, which is why I started the points system in the first place.
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