RADIO
Michael Florio reviews bullpens that have changed, closers you can add off the waiver wire and relief pitchers who are useful for fantasy baseball heading into Week 4.
The popular fantasy baseball strategies this draft season were to load up on offensive players and those elite relievers who can safely get all the save chances. So far in the first month, offense is historically down and we have seen more bullpens change than stay the same. This is not me knocking the strategies, as there is still five months to let play out. The one thing I think we can take away is that there are a number of different strategies that can be successful and one is streaming relievers.
One thing I learned when I started covering fantasy baseball so closely is to monitor bullpens day to day. If you do that, you can see trends and changes happening in real time, meaning that you can find saves off the waiver wire. If you see a change early enough, you can nab a closer in the making for cheap, significantly less than if you wait till a pitcher is officially named a closer. You have to be willing to dedicate some FAAB to relievers and be fine making changes until something stick, but it is a strategy I continue to have success with in my fantasy leagues.
In fact, there have been times when I want to add a reliever but I simply do not have the need or roster spot to do so. I have a fantasy team where I went into the season with no set closers and I now have four. This is not me bragging, but highlighting that if you read this weekly and stay up to date on bullpens, you can find saves without having to invest an early round pick on them. Saves cost one of two things: draft capital or FAAB/waiver priority. I am always in the camp of the latter and if you are as well, this article is a weekly staple for you.
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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball
The Astros have had to wait weeks to get their closer Ryan Pressly back, but that wait is coming to an end. Pressly is set to start his rehab in Triple-A on Tuesday May 3rd. He should rejoin the Astros shortly after as long as there are no set backs. Once he returns he should take back his closer role and should be started in all formats. While he has been out, we have seen Rafael Montero pick up two saves and Ryne Stanek get one. Montero is the handcuff to Pressly here. Hector Neris has been saved for high leverage situations and not the ninth.
The Diamondbacks had to place Mark Melancon on the Covid-19 IL last Friday. In his absence, Ian Kennedy has stepped up and has picked up two saves on the season. Melancon’s return date is still up in the air, but when he returns he should take back his ninth inning role. While we all had a strong sense that Kennedy would be next in line for saves, it is nice to see it play out and have certainty moving forward now.
The Giants have been featured in this article every week this season, but its time we start trusting Camilo Doval. Not only has he picked up four of the Giants' seven saves this season, including the majority of the recent ones, he has been their best of their closer options. Jake McGee currently sports an ERA just below six, while Doval leads this bullpen in strikeout rate at 32 percent. It can be tough to trust a Gabe Kapler bullpen, but until we see otherwise, Doval is the pitcher to trust here.
Speculative Save Situations for Fantasy Baseball
The Cardinals have certainly been an interesting team when it comes to the bullpen as of late. We didn't see Giovanny Gallegos for a week but then we saw him pick up a save on Monday. The day prior though it was Ryan Helsley picking up a two-inning save and he has been absolutely filthy this season. It was Helsley’s first save of the season so we should not act like he has stolen the job, but there is no denying that he has been the better option of the two.
On the season, Helsley has pitched to a 0.00 ERA, 0.16 xERA, with a -0.14 xFIP (yes, negative), a 0.12 WHIP and a whopping 62 percent strikeout rate. Gallegos on the other hand has an ERA close to six, a 1.38 WHIP and just a 21 percent strikeout rate. Also, manager Oliver Marmol has hinted at using these two in a committee. Gallegos should be viewed as the pitcher most likely to be called out of the pen for a save situation, but its much less of a slam dunk then it was coming into the season. Helsley, save chances or not, it worth adding solely for the strikeouts and elite ratios. Any save chance would be the cherry on top.
The Red Sox are featured in this article weekly. Boston has had five different pitchers pick up a save, while none have multiple saves on the year. It is a complete nightmare for fantasy purposes. We have seen Garrett Whitlock promoted from the pen to the starting rotation, at least for the time being. We could see Tanner Houck now pitching out of the pen, but if that is for bulk innings behind say Rich Hill or if he will be used in late game situations has yet to be determined.
For now, the Red Sox remain stagnant with Hansel Robles, Matt Barnes and Jake Diekman as the top options. With Barnes struggling with velocity and Diekman being the only lefty of the bunch, it makes Robles the top option for me. He has also been the most effective of this bunch so he will not hurt your ratios. I rank them Robles, Barnes, Diekman going forward.
Entering Tuesday the Reds have won just three games all year and, worst of all, they have had a different reliever pick up the save in each. That’s right, Lucas Sims, Tony Santillan and Art Warren each have one save on the year. Given the fact that save chances have been so infrequent, paired with the fact that each of these three options currently sports an ERA over five, and it may just be best to wash your hands from this bullpen entirely, at least for the time being. If you are searching here for saves, Sims remains the most likely to get the next chance. I would rank them Sims, Warren, Santillan moving forward.
There was a five day stretch last week where Anthony Bender picked up four saves for the Marlins, bringing his yearly total now to six. He has been a great addition for any fantasy manager that took a chance on him. There is no pitcher in the Marlins bullpen that is a threat to stealing those saves. Well, no healthy pitcher at least. Dylan Floro has been working his way back from a shoulder injury and over the weekend he pitched in back-to-back days in Triple-A, meaning he could join the Marlins bullpen at any point. Floro was the favorite to get save chances for the Marlins in the preseason. While I would not mess with Bender if I was the Marlins manager, sadly, I have no say in the matter. Floro is worth a speculative add just in case.
The Twins seemingly have a two man race for save chances. The first is Emilio Pagan, who they received in a trade for their former closer, Taylor Rogers. Pagan has pitched to a 2.70 ERA, 3.58xERA, 4.31 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP with a 30 percent strikeout rate. Those are solid numbers and he has closer experience. He also leads the Twins with two saves and perhaps was brought in for a two inning save on Monday, but he struggled in the eighth. The fact that he did struggle has opened the door for Jhoan Duran to get the ninth and pick up the save. On the year he has pitched to a 3.00 ERA, 1.58 xERA, 0.95 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP and a very impressive 43 percent strikeout rate. While it seems like Pagan is the preferred choice, Duran is clearly the superior pitcher and may force the Twins hands, especially if Pagan blows a save or two. He is worth rostering for the strikeouts and ratios alone, and any saves added on would be a huge plus.
Elite Strikeout and Ratio Relievers for Fantasy Baseball
Michael King is one of just five relievers to have already topped 14 innings pitched this season. Of those five, he is the only one with a strikeout rate over 28 percent – his sits at a sky-high 41 percent. He already has 22 strikeouts on the year, which is more than Jose Berrios, Framber Valdez, Zack Greinke and Zack Wheeler. He’s done so while pitching to a 0.61 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. Look, he may be a reliever, but you get more innings out of him than a typical bullpen arm, to go along with starting pitcher strikeouts and great ratios. He needs to be rostered at this point.
Andres Munoz may only have one save this season, but he has been pretty elite whenever the Mariners call upon him. On the year he has pitched to a 3.38 ERA, 2.52 xERA, 1.27 xFIP, with a 1.38 WHIP and a 44 percent strikeout rate. Among relievers who have pitched at least eight innings the only ones with a higher strikeout rate are Helsley, Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. That is elite company. Plus, add in that saves are totally up for grabs in Seattle and Munoz is easily an arm worth taking a shot on.
Dillon Peters has pitched to a 0.00 ERA, 1.91 xERA and a very low 0.44 WHIP, while striking out a quarter of the batters he has faced this season. He has done so in 11.1 innings pitched. While he is not quite at King’s level in terms of strikeouts or innings, he does provide both and plenty of elite ratios. If you are diving a bit deeper for a reliever, Peters is a name for you.
Aaron Loup has pitched to a 0.84 ERA, 1.79 xERA, 3.55 xFIP with a 24 percent strikeout rate and a 0.38 WHIP in 10.2 innings pitched. The only reliever who has gone at least eight innings and has a lower WHIP than Loup is Helsley (who is currently a walking cheat code). If you have had some starters who have beat up your WHIP, adding Loup for the time being could be a way of cleansing it.
Michael Fulmer has yet to allow a run in 9.1 innings this season. He has pitched to a 1.70 xERA, 2.98 xFIP, 0.54 WHIP and has a 25 percent strikeout rate to start the season. Not only does he help the strikeouts and ratios, but he is next in line for save chances in Detroit. He is one reliever I just cannot quit and would be fine picking up as a speculative saves arm down the road.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio
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