X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Zach Eflin and Manny Machado

The Trade Deadline moves started early, with Manny Machado heading to Hollywood. Elite players are likely to remain elite regardless of where they play, but Machado's fantasy value is probably due for a slight hit.

Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia are the other notable fantasy options on the move, and both figure to see a massive decline in their fantasy value. There is little doubt that Hand is better than Cody Allen, but the fact that he made his Tribe debut in the seventh inning suggests that Allen's job is secure. Familia hasn't pitched for the A's as of this writing, but early word is that Blake Treinen will continue seeing saves.

A deeper dive into either would be pointless, as there's no way to predict what a manager will decide to do. Instead, let's see if Zach Eflin's hot start is sustainable before transitioning to Machado.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Zach Eflin (SP, PHI) - 70% Owned

Eflin was completely off of the fantasy radar coming into 2018, a perfectly logical reaction to an ERA above six the previous year. He's back with a vengeance though, compiling a 3.15 ERA and 3.77 xFIP over 68 2/3 IP at the MLB level this year. He's better than he was, but the peripherals suggest a streamer at best.

The biggest difference between 2018 Eflin and any other vintage is he gets strikeouts now. His K% is up to 24% from a career mark of 16%, thanks in part to a velocity spike (93.7mph last year, 95mph this). A lot of analysts are pointing to the spike and immediately concluding that the Ks are sustainable, but it's not clear that it is. Notably, he wasn't striking out anybody at Triple-A this year (17.7% K% in 20 IP).

The velocity spike is accompanied by a dramatic change in pitch selection. Eflin is trusting his fastball (24.6% last year to 47.6% this) and slider (12.9% to 20.7%) more often than his sinker (43.5% to 12.8%), while also swapping the usage rates of his change (7.6% to 11%) and curve (11.4% to 6.8%). The curve is terrible (8.3% SwStr%, 38.9% Zone%, 20.5% chase), so the switch would be expected to improve Eflin's performance.

Eflin's heater has done a great job limiting opposing batters (.212/.271/.331 vs. .262/.318/.509 career), but its velocity spike is accompanied by a spin rate decline (2,194 RPM vs. 2,211 last year). A high-spin fastball can limit contact quality, but Eflin's is only average. His heater's 60% Zone% is also high enough to question whether he's throwing too many strikes, potentially making him more predictable as the scouting report circulates. MLB hitters can handle 95 with average movement, so it seems unlikely that this fastball will continue to stymie them the way it has.

Eflin's slider is interesting in that it's a strike 49.3% of the time. That means that it's more of a fastball alternative to use in the zone than a traditional secondary offering. It ranks very well if judged as a fastball (14% SwStr%, 39.3% Zone%), making it a great compliment to a true wipeout pitch.

Eflin's changeup wants to be that put away pitch, but its not there yet. Its 17.1% SwStr% and 46.2% Zone% this year are both better than the pitch's career averages (9.5% and 42.4%, respectively), and a decline in spin rate (1,741 RPM vs. 1,897 last year) suggests that it really is less predictable (lower spin is better for changeups). Unfortunately, hitters clobber it when they make contact (.412/.459/.676). The pitch has potential, but there's still work to do.

His sinker has been used as a secondary pitch, with a decline in Zone% (46% vs. 51% career) accompanied by a whiff rate spike (11% vs. 5.3% career). Sinkers are rarely used in this way, contributing to an elevated 40.5% chase rate. However, the results aren't great. Eflin should probably shelve the pitch entirely and focus on his fastball-changeup-slider combination.

Eflin's environment also figures to work against him in the second half. First, the obvious ballpark issue. Citizen's Bank Park dramatically inflates power numbers, posting a FanGraphs HR factor of 111 in 2017. That was the second highest mark in the league. Eflin does nothing to limit airborne contact (37.2% GB% this year), so it's going to hurt when his 7.6% HR/FB regresses toward his 13.4% career rate.

Eflin has also benefited from a .284 BABIP this season, and his career mark of .281 suggests that it should be sustainable. Unfortunately, the atrocious defenders behind him make that a poor bet. Both 1B Carlos Santana and 2B Cesar Hernandez have been slightly below average this year with -2 Defensive Runs Saved each, but the other two infield positions have been worse. Shortstops Scott Kingery and J.P. Crawford have contributed -4 DRS each, combining for a very poor defensive SS. Third sacker Maikel Franco also leaves something to be desired with a glove (-6).

That's not great, but the team's outfield is worse. Rhys Hoskins has no business out there (-13 Outs Above Average) but has to play there every day. Nick Williams has also been well below average (-5 OAA). Odubel Herrera has been a relative bright spot (three OAA), but the team's -13 OAA overall is second to last in the majors.

In conclusion, Eflin has a strikeout spike only partially supported by peripheral stats and a HR/FB and BABIP bound for the bad kind of regression. The Phillies are a solid club, so he should earn his fair share of wins even after coming back to Earth. Just don't make the mistake of treating him as a must-start arm.

Verdict: Chump

 

Manny Machado (3B/SS, LAD) - 99% Owned

What's it like to play in the one percent of Yahoo! formats where Machado is on waivers? Are they novelty leagues where the objective is to lose? At any rate, Machado has been great this year (.316/.390/.571 with 24 HR and seven steals).

The 26-year old seems unlikely to keep up that level of production, but figures to continue being elite. Machado hasn't seen that many strikes being the only competent hitter on his team, posting a Zone% against of 41.1%. His eye isn't fantastic (30% chase rate), but his BB% (11.1%) is still comparable to his K% (12.1%). As a Dodger, he's likely to see more pitches to hit. His BB% should decline slightly as a result.

Machado's .312 BABIP is fairly close to his career mark of .302, but he doesn't have a high-BABIP profile. He doesn't hit many line drives (16.6% LD% this year), though his career rate (18.3%) suggests a few more moving forward. Likewise, he hits a ton of flies (44.9% FB% this year) and more pop-ups than you would like (11% IFFB% this season, 13.8% career).

His 41.6% Pull% on ground balls makes the shift a non-issue (.284 in 75 PAs against it this year), but he's still due for massive regression in his .336 BABIP on ground balls (.274 career). Most fantasy owners think that Machado can run, but he hasn't posted an above average Statcast Sprint Speed since 2015. This year, it's down to a pitiful 25.9 ft./sec. His 91.6mph average exit velocity on ground balls is elite, but it would be surprising if he maintained his current pace.

Machado's 16.4% HR/FB is on par with his career rate of 15.1%, and most of his underlying metrics are positive. He pulls a ton of his flies (30.8%) and always has (28.6% career). He hits the ball hard (95.2mph average airborne exit velocity) and always has (96.5mph last year, 94.9 in 2016). His 12% rate of Brls/BBE is a Statcast Era best, but last year's 10.5% mark suggests that he never exactly struggled in that regard.

To play devil's advocate, he has hit 17 of his 24 HR at Camden Yards. The park significantly inflates right-handed power (105 HR factor last year), while Dodger Stadium doesn't (96 HR factor). Still, hitting second for the Dodgers should produce more R+RBI than hitting third for Baltimore.

Machado has zero games at 3B this year, so he'll probably lose eligibility there in 2019. His -19 DRS at SS suggest that he may not stick there either, creating uncertainty in long-term keeper formats. Yes, I freely admit that I'm splitting hairs here. If you were lucky enough to draft Machado, enjoy the ride!

Verdict: Champ

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Clarkson7 hours ago

Out At Least A Week
Kyle Kuzma7 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Jamal Murray7 hours ago

Won't Return On Friday Night
Giannis Antetokounmpo7 hours ago

Anticipated To Play Versus Cleveland
Puka Nacua8 hours ago

Shot To Play Week 9
Jordan Love9 hours ago

Tracking To Play In Week 9
Stephen Curry11 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Yves Missi11 hours ago

Expected To Take The Court Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns11 hours ago

Available On Friday
Eric Comrie12 hours ago

Faces Blue Jackets Friday
Daniel Theis12 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Friday
David Savard12 hours ago

Sits Out Practice For Maintenance Purposes
De'Anthony Melton12 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jordan Hawkins12 hours ago

Expected To Play Friday
Alexander Romanov12 hours ago

Ready To Play Friday
Al Horford12 hours ago

Resting Against Charlotte
Evgeni Malkin12 hours ago

Takes Maintenance Day On Friday
Andrew Wiggins12 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Matchup With Houston
Rose Namajunas12 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
D'Angelo Russell12 hours ago

Will Suit Up Versus Toronto
Devon Levi12 hours ago

Returns To Sabres Crease
Clayton Kershaw12 hours ago

To Undergo Two Surgeries
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Available Against Toronto
Erin Blanchfield12 hours ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Lowe12 hours ago

Rays Pick Up Club Option On Brandon Lowe
Ryan Hartman12 hours ago

Rejoins Wild Lineup Friday
Zach LaVine12 hours ago

Will Play Against Brooklyn
12 hours ago

Nick Martinez Headed To Free Agency
Erik Cernak12 hours ago

Available On Friday
Marc-Andre Barriault12 hours ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Brent Suter12 hours ago

Inks Extension With Cincinnati
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Out Again On Friday Night
CJ McCollum12 hours ago

Out At Least Two Weeks
13 hours ago

Yankees, Mets Among Teams In Battle For Juan Soto
Anthony Black13 hours ago

Starting Versus Cleveland
Franz Wagner13 hours ago

Cleared For Friday Night
Herbert Jones13 hours ago

To Miss A Significant Amount Of Time With Shoulder Injury
Marc-Andre Barriault13 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Blake Snell13 hours ago

Opts Out Of Deal With San Francisco
Desmond Bane13 hours ago

Won't Face The 76ers
Josh Jacobs13 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Drake Maye14 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Tyler Boyd14 hours ago

Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd Listed As Questionable
Tyjae Spears14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Calvin Ridley14 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Trevin Giles14 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Noah Fant14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Brian Robinson Jr.14 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Mike Malott14 hours ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Dallas Goedert14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
DK Metcalf14 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Zach Benson15 hours ago

Could Play Next Week
Jani Hakanpaa15 hours ago

And Connor Dewar Sent On Conditioning Stint
Dmitri Voronkov15 hours ago

Ready For Season Debut Friday
Jordan Love15 hours ago

Questionable Vs. Lions
Mathew Barzal15 hours ago

Getting Tests Done For Upper-Body Injury
Vladimir Tarasenko15 hours ago

Ready To Go For Saturday
Mark Stone15 hours ago

Misses Practice Due To Birth Of Child
Puka Nacua16 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Week 9
Will Levis17 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
David Njoku17 hours ago

Good To Go For Week 9
Bucky Irving17 hours ago

Absent During Friday's Practice
David Njoku17 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
Adam Thielen17 hours ago

Doubtful For Week 9
Jonathon Brooks17 hours ago

Not Expected To Play In Week 9
Tee Higgins17 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Sunday
Tyreek Hill18 hours ago

Expected To Play In Week 9
Tomás Nosek20 hours ago

Tomas Nosek Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
Leon Draisaitl21 hours ago

Leads Oilers To Victory With Three-Point Effort
Martin Necas21 hours ago

Registers Four Points In Dominant Win
Alex Ovechkin21 hours ago

Bags Three Points In Thursday's Win
21 hours ago

Royals Decline Option On Adam Frazier
Sidney Crosby21 hours ago

Drags Penguins Back On Track
21 hours ago

Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer Headed To Free Agency
William Nylander21 hours ago

Pots Two Goals Versus Seattle
21 hours ago

Milwaukee Declines Option On Wade Miley
NHL21 hours ago

Will Smith Scores First Career Goals
Lucas Giolito21 hours ago

Staying In Boston
Chris Stratton21 hours ago

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Returning To Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery22 hours ago

Staying In Arizona
1 day ago

Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn Headed For Free Agency
Roansy Contreras1 day ago

Claimed By Texas
1 day ago

Alex Kirilloff Announces Retirement
Jorge Soler1 day ago

Traded To Los Angeles
Curtis Lazar1 day ago

Out Indefinitely Following Knee Procedure
Brendson Ribeiro1 day ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado1 day ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz1 day ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton
Derrick Lewis1 day ago

Faces An Unranked Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Edmonton
2 days ago

Daniel Hudson Retires After World Series Victory
Freddie Freeman2 days ago

Drives In Two More Runs, Earns World Series MVP Honors
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron5 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Khamzat Chimaev5 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan5 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov5 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano5 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige5 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy5 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev5 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Puka Nacua - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football WR Injury Reports: Week 9 Updates For Puka Nacua, DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas Jr., Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper

We've already run the gauntlet of wide receiver injuries, but NFL action never stops, and player ailments never stop piling up throughout the season. It's odd how brutal they've been to the WR position especially. We've seen a number of star wideouts go on injured reserve, some for the rest of the season. Chris Godwin, […]


Bryce Young - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 9 Includes Jaylen Wright, Troy Franklin, Erick All Jr., and more

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Updates for Week 9: Lamar Jackson, Puka Nacua, Tee Higgins, Jordan Love, Brian Thomas Jr.

The fantasy football gods don't care about your hopes and aspirations for your team. They dole out what they want when they please. It's common for players to get injuries in a sport that involves crashing into each other at high speeds and changing direction with extreme force. It's Week 9, which means some fantasy […]


Dallas Goedert - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Reports for Tight Ends: Week 9 - Updates for T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Will Dissly

It’s time to check in on the injuries to some of the tight ends around the National Football League. The volatility at this position has been a nightmare for fantasy managers this season, and injuries across the board haven’t helped.   Being up-to-date on NFL injury news can give you an edge over your league […]


Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 9 Targets and Avoids (2024)

Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do […]


Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Week 9 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks - Main Slate (2024): Jalen Hurts, Chase Brown, Evan Engram, and more

After raiding my daughter's trick-or-treat bag leftovers, I'm battling a Halloween hangover. It's probably a similar feeling to what lots of DFS players were experiencing after last week's Main Slate, as injuries and muted outputs from several popular players were hallmarks of Week 8. That said, we're on to a Week 9 slate that features […]


Puka Nacua - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 9 (Friday Updates): Puka Nacua, DK Metcalf, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, more

We have now hit the halfway point of the NFL season, but over halfway for most fantasy football seasons. As has been the norm this season, there are plenty of injuries to top fantasy players at every position. Some remain out for the foreseeable future, some are potentially playing through injury, and some are returning […]


Jayden Daniels - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2024)

Just two teams will be on a bye during Week 9, leaving a busy slate across the NFL. Injuries will once again impact the slate, as well as some teams making changes at quarterback. Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play […]


RotoBaller NFL Betting Picks Stock

2024 NFL Week 9 Betting Picks (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard. To see ALL of Jamie's bets (and others from RotoBaller experts) then head over to the RotoBaller Discord. You'll find every bet and prop in the #NFL-BETTING-PROPS channel there!   Background My name is Jamie Calandro (@jac3600 on X) and I have […]


AJ Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS: FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 9 - Top Lineup Plays Include Bijan Robinson, A.J. Brown, T.J. Hockenson

Like a backup quarterback patiently holding the clipboard with his hat on backward, I've been summoned into action to help give you some helpful NFL DFS advice for Week 9. My good friend Dennis Clausen, who usually pens this piece, asked me to help him out this week. Don't worry - Dennis is fine, other […]


Zay Flowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 Fantasy Football Busts? Players Who May Disappoint Include Josh Jacobs, Zay Flowers, Tank Bigsby, Rachaad White, Nick Chubb, Bucky Irving

Welcome to Week 9, the midway point of the 2024 fantasy football season. It's arrived quickly for most, but there's still plenty of season left! Injuries to wide receivers have left a sour taste in the mouths of fantasy managers, therefore propping up running backs. However, some running backs may have a rough week while […]


Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 9 (2024)

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 9 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 9! With the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers on bye this week, fantasy managers will have to replace George Pickens, Najee Harris, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle in their lineups. This Week 9 matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em piece will help you make the right lineup decisions […]