RADIO
As a fantasy baseball owner, the ideal players to target are ones that have splits that are significantly different than what they have posted in the past. Drastic changes in splits from the historical average can indicate that a hitter is struggling because of timing or mechanical issues, and hitters with reliable power-hitting stat histories are ideal to target under those circumstances. The RotoBaller Home Run/Power Surgers and Fallers Tool helps subscribers discover the sluggers that are beginning to make the adjustments that great hitters make during the season.
Power Surgers
Kendrys Morales Power Average Difference +9.6% Status: Buy/Add Now
Kendrys Morales is officially hotter than bacon grease. In the month of June, Morales produced a hefty slash line of .402/.453/.655 with five home runs and 18 RBI. The Royals switch-hitting first baseman/designated hitter has put up video game numbers in the last two weeks. Including his performance from Saturday, Morales has six home runs and a ridiculous 1.023 slugging percentage in the last 14 days. His 67% ownership in Fleaflicker leagues (62% in Yahoo) is shockingly low, seeing as how he has been mashing for a month now.
Morales was a complete mess at the plate for the first two months of the season. As of May 31, he was hitting just .193 with six home runs, 21 RBI, and a wimpy .136 ISO. The problem for Morales was his struggles against right-handed pitching, which has never been a problem. Since making some timing adjustments at the end of May, his batted ball profile has resembled the guy who hit 22 home runs for the 2015 World Series Champions. Since June 1, Morales is pulling the ball 41% of the time and making hard contact in almost 50% of batted balls. As of Saturday, he has homered in three straight games. Pick him up now before the discount is gone.
Addison Russell Power Average Difference +8% Status: Hold
Unlike Morales, Cubs shortstop Addison Russell does not have a 30-plus home run season on his resume. Russell hit 13 home runs in his rookie season in 2015, and is on pace for 15 this year. He is a solid young player with a great glove that might start the All-Star Game this season, but that kind of conversation is not relevant for this space. We're talking about taters!
Russell has hit three of his eight total home runs in the last two weeks, but has not produced much else. His .236 ISO in the last 14 days is higher than his batting average, as he has just 10 hits in 59 plate appearances in that time. His effectiveness at the plate in his rookie year was stymied by an above-average K%, which he has curbed somewhat. Russell has experienced a gain of seven feet on his average fly ball distance since last year, but is not pulling the ball enough, and has a 20% soft contact percentage. Owners should hold him for now, but would be mistaken to expect his power surge to keep up.
Power Fallers
Ian Kinsler Power Average Difference -5.6% Status: Sell
Ian Kinsler is an excellent hitting second baseman, and that grants him extra value at a traditionally light-hitting position. Kinsler had a noticeable fall-off in power production at the beginning of 2015 and finished with just 11 home runs, his lowest season total of his career. The way that Kinsler has rebounded to hit 15 taters this year in half of the season is a remarkable story, and one that fantasy owners should take advantage of.
Kinsler has shown a jump in his hard contact percentage, from 26% in 2015 to 32% this season. He has also experienced an enormous jump in average fly ball distance, from 267.4 feet in 2015 to 285.3 feet this year. These improvements together should signal a home run breakout, but his power was so inept last year that the improvements are misleading. His longer fly ball distance has likely contributed to a 12% HR/FB that is well above his career high, and will regress as the season goes on. Kinsler will still be in the 20-23 home run range, and owners could do just fine by parking him in their lineups. Savvy owners with holes to fill would be wise to remember his 2015 season, and shop him before his power drought becomes prolonged.
Jason Heyward Power Average Difference -5.6% Status: Drop in most formats
Since hitting 27 home runs for the Braves in 2012, Jason Heyward has done nothing but disappoint in the power metrics. Heyward had a solid year in St.Louis last year, and his game has always been more than just slugging, but he now has just 17 home runs in his last 920 plate appearances. The power potential he realized in 2012 has always been like the song of the Sirens, luring sailors and fantasy owners alike to their death on the rocky shores.
Heyward has just four homers on the year and has not went yard since June 11. His .088 ISO is the ninth worst among qualified position players, which pairs him with guys like Alcides Escobar, Billy Burns, and Ketel Marte. The batted ball profile Heyward presents at this point in 2016 is equally gruesome. His hard contact percentage has plummeted while his soft contact percentage has equally increased, and 72% of his batted balls have been line drives or ground balls. His 7% HR/FB is well below his career average, but Heyward is not hitting enough fly balls to accumulate homers. His average fly ball is up almost 30 feet, which is amazing, except that he averaged just 247.9 feet in 2015, good for 247th among qualified hitters. There is nothing in his advanced stats that indicate a power surge in the near future, and he is safe to drop in most formats.
