RADIO
Fantasy owners understand that to win titles, you have to have the best hitters. The RotoBaller Power Surgers/Fallers Tool helps subscribers identify which players are about to have a breakout in power production. As Earl Weaver once said, um, well, we can't print what Earl said. You folks know how to use YouTube.
Power Risers
Adam Lind +11.4% Power Average Difference
The Mariners made some significant roster moves on Friday that directly benefit veteran DH/1B Adam Lind. The roster shakeup proved wise that night, as Lind took a pitch from Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal deep into the right field Safeco Park stands for a dramatic three-run walk-off home run. The possibility of consistent playing time makes Lind an intriguing add for power.
Lind battled back problems last year (a recurring issue for him) but had a solid year in Milwaukee, hitting 20 home runs and posting a .351 wOBA in 572 plate appearances. 2016 has been anything but solid for Lind, with a .234/.270/.436 slash line and 87 wRC+ in 200 plate appearances. The troubling aspect of his struggles is an increase in strikeouts. Lind has a 21.5% K% and a 10.8% SwStr% this year, both career highs. Lind also has made soft contact 20% of the time, another career high. His walks have decreased significantly, causing his OBP to nosedive.
The good news for fantasy owners is that his stat profile in the last 30 days is classic Adam Lind. He has eight home runs, 20 RBI, a .361 ISO, and an 18% K% since May 25. He has been hitting more line drives in the last two weeks, and if his walks pick up, he is the same player as 2015. Add in a BABIP for the season that is 59 points lower than his career average, and there is plenty of room for improvement. Owners looking for power production in leagues of 14 or more should be looking at Lind.
Yasmany Tomas +14% Power Average Difference
The Cuban import Yasmany Tomas has had an interesting season in the desert. Through the first six weeks, Tomas had a .305/.357/.500 slash line with five home runs, 14 RBI and 23 runs scored. The next four weeks, he hit .195 with a 43 wRC+ and battled a knee injury. The Diamondbacks were considering whether to send Tomas to the disabled list or the minors. In the last two weeks he has five home runs, and has reclaimed his place in the Arizona lineup.
Tomas was bad last year, and was limited by being out of shape and injured. He came into camp this season having lost weight, and the changes in the offseason appeared to pay off. He was a solid fantasy outfielder to start the season, but there are two persistent flaws in his game regardless of conditioning or injury. He hits too many groundballs, and strikes out more than average. He has 12 home runs this year, but considering his 23% HR/FB is totally unsustainable, the batted ball profile just does not support a large quantity of home runs. The strikeouts by themselves would be tolerable, but Tomas has a 47.6% groundball percentage, and is hitting .148 on grounders. His power surge might not hold up, and owners should consider selling on Tomas.
Power Fallers
Jung Ho Kang -7% Power Average Difference
Jung Ho Kang had a solid rookie year, with 15 home runs in 467 plate appearances before suffering his horrific knee/leg injury in September. From a power hitting perspective, his 11 home runs in his first 150 plate appearances coming back from that injury is nothing short of remarkable. As good of a story as his comeback has become, the power numbers will not hold up.
Considering Kang missed some time at the start of the season coming back from his injury, his numbers come with the standard disclaimer regarding small sample size. Having said that, the power display from Kang this year has been supported by an insane 29% HR/FB, which is even more unbelievable since he has a pedestrian 36% flyball percentage. Kang has increased his hard contact percentage to an impressive 44%, but he is also not pulling the ball as much.
With Kang, the power aspect of his game is relative to his position. His current pace of home runs will not continue at all, but he is a well rounded 3B/SS with some pop and an average strikeout percentage. Kang has 20 HR potential for sure, which plays well at his positions. Owners should buy shares of Kang where possible.
Wellington Castillo -8.7% Power Average Difference
Like Kang, the power part of the game for Wellington Castillo is relative to his position. Catcher as been a desolate waste land of offensive production for fantasy owners this year, so any reliable power numbers will get attention. Castillo hit 19 taters in 378 plate appearances last season, so owners were not surprised when he started 2016 with seven homers and 20 RBI in his first 131 plate appearances. Unfortunately, power surges, like all good things, must come to an end.
Castillo has seen his lofty homer numbers supported by a 16.7% HR/FB % that, when paired with a 32.4% flyball percentage, is completely unsustainable. So it makes sense that he has cooled off, as much of his production occurred in the first six weeks of the season. At that time, Castillo was slashing .298/.336./.521 with a .223 ISO. Since the middle of May, Castillo has one home run, a 30% K%, and a .091 ISO.
As far as catchers go, any offensive production is a plus. However, Castillo is not a reasonable bet for home runs long term. Savvy owners should consider selling Castillo to less discerning owners before his true value catches up with his perceived value.
