RADIO
With the 2016 All-Star Game on the horizon, it is a useful time for fantasy owners to evaluate their teams. The RotoBaller Home Run/Power Surgers and Fallers tool can help owners decide which player is going to come out of the break ready to produce in the power department.
Power Surgers
Marcus Semien Power Average Difference +7.3% Status: Waiver Add
If we are looking at shortstops based on their power production and potential, not many are better than Marcus Semien. Predictions of a power breakout from the third year Oakland shortstop are proving true. In 2015, Semien hit 15 dongs in 556 at bats, but he has already hit 19 this year in just 299 at bats. He is tied with Manny Machado for second in homers by shortstops, trailing only Trevor Story.
For the season, Semien has some metrics in his batted ball profile that resemble a normal power hitter. He is pulling the ball 43 % of the time, hitting the ball in the air on 45% of batted balls, and has made hard contact on 29% of batted balls. Semien has been a tater-smashing machine lately, with six home runs and 11 RBI in the last two weeks. The method to his success has been simple-hit fly balls really hard. In the last 14 days, he has hit fly balls at an astounding 64% clip and has increased his hard contact to 41%.
Owners that are interested in Semien can probably find him on the wire; he is currently owned in just 58% of Fleaflicker leagues and 49% of Yahoo leagues. He is a step up from guys like Starlin Castro and Eugenio Suarez, both of whom are higher owned in Yahoo.
Mark Reynolds Power Average Difference +8% Status: Sell/Avoid
Coming into 2015 Mark Reynolds had hit 237 career home runs, so he is well known for bringing the lumber. Most of those home runs were hit earlier in his career though, as he has not hit more than 25 in a season since 2011. The move to Coors Field for 2016 was supposed to help his game, and has, except for the power.
The Rockies first baseman has surprised many with his .290/.355/.465 slash line this season, as Reynolds is a career .256 hitter. While it is easy to notice the .371 BABIP and dismiss the improvement, the real evidence lies in his batted ball profile. Although he has experienced a drastic jump in average fly ball distance from last year, he is hitting significantly less fly balls than at any time in his career. He is also making hard contact on batted balls much less, with a change of -6.5% from his career average.
Reynolds has been able to leave the park a few times in the last couple of weeks, but there are reasons to believe that a power surge is not in the near future. His batted ball profile of the last 14 days looks similar to the full season, except for a 23% HR/FB rate. His services should be reserved for only the most desperate owners.
Power Fallers
Yan Gomes Power Average Difference -6% Status: Sell/Avoid
For most of the season, fantasy owners could stack their team with Cleveland Indians players and do just fine. The Indians are a top-10 offense in almost every measurable way, but they have received very little help from catcher Yan Gomes. Gomes has produced a ghastly .172/.204/.326 slash line with eight home runs in 233 at bats. Coming off of an inconsistent, injury-filled 2015, owners have to be wondering what is really happening with the guy who was a top-10 catcher in 2014.
Gomes historically strikes out often and walks very little, which already limits his fantasy usefulness. However, there are two alarming patterns emerging with the particular ineptitude that Gomes is displaying. In his excellent 2014 season, he averaged 290.6 feet distance on fly balls, good for 53rd in baseball. As of this point in 2016, his distanced has dropped a full ten feet, to 280 feet. That difference represents a great number of fly balls being caught short of the fence. While he is pulling the ball more than last year, his rate of line drives has fallen off of the table, with an 11 percent decline since last year.
Gomes could be dealing with sight problems, as he has been wearing glasses at the plate. It is possible that he makes some adjustments and comes out of the break raking. He is clearly a talented player at a usually thin offensive position, which is hard to pass on, but something is not right with him. He should be cut in standard mixed leagues, but owners should be ready to snag him is he shows signs of life in the second half.
