Breakout Hitters to Watch for Fantasy Baseball Week 13

June 30, 2022

Jon Anderson looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers and potential sleepers for Week 13 He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.

Welcome back RotoBallers to another edition of my "Breakout Hitters To Watch" series. What we're doing here is taking a good, close look at the hitting data each week to see which hitters are standing out the most.

The idea is to find hitters that have made changes and/or really improved this season to find start-worthy hitters for your fantasy teams, preferably on the cheap. We aren't constricting ourselves to players that are available on waivers or anything like that, just looking for some hitters that may be having their breakout seasons that you should try to acquire.

For transparency's sake, we'll do a recap of each week's recommendation at the beginning of each post to track our results and see if we're on the right track.

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Fantasy Baseball Breakouts Recap

Here are all of the names I've recommended so far.

This Week's Fantasy Baseball Breakout Picks

Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins

We saw Kirilloff's career get off to a really nice start in 2021 before a wrist injury derailed his season. That injury appears to have hurt the beginning of his 2022 season as well, as Kirilloff sputtered to a .172/.219/.172 line with zero barrels and a 37.5% strikeout rate through 32 plate appearances before being put on the IL with that wrist injury.

After that, he took an injection into the wrist and rested it for a few weeks, and then got back going in AAA. He crushed minor league pitching and got the call back to the Major Leagues in June.

Since the recall, he has put up an 84.1% contact rate while hitting the ball above 95 miles per hour on 56.7% of his balls in play. That is the highest hard-hit rate in the league for hitters in June with contact rates above 80%.

Hard-Hit% Above 45%, Contact% Above 80%, June 2022

What we haven't seen from Kirilloff yet is a home run, and his barrel rate of just 3.3% is surprising given that hard-hit rate as well as his median launch angle of 27 degrees, which is right there near the sweet spot for barrels. I don't think this contact rate stays nearly this high, but I do think the barrels start to come in a hurry here, so get your hands on Kirilloff right now if you can.

Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

Well, we just saw Rutschman's name in that last write-up, so let's cover him next. The top-prospect Orioles catcher debuted on May 21st, and through his first 65 plate appearances in the league, he hit just .153/.231/.220 with no barrels and no homers. Since that pivot point, however, things have been a lot better for the rookie backstop. In his last 60 plate appearances, Rutschman has put up a .309/.367/.636 line with three bombs, a 15.2% Brl%, an 83.2% contact rate, and a great 15% strikeout rate.

I talk about this a lot, but finding a hitter that is capable of going above 12% with the barrel rate while staying under 20% with the strikeout rate over any decent sample size is someone to notice. For the year, just nine hitters have done this. Rutschman isn't one of these names, but he's not too far off with a barrel rate of 7.8% and a strikeout rate of 19.2% over his 125 plate appearances.

He's doing more than enough right now to be a start-worthy catcher for your fantasy team, and he might be someone to see if you can buy for a decent price even in a redraft league.

Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays

Over the last three weeks, Parades has hit .325/.386/.825 in 44 plate appearances with six homers and just a 13.6% strikeout rate. That's a ridiculous span of games. Admittedly, the power is a mirage. His 8.8% barrel rate over that time by itself is enough to say his six homers are fluky. The reason to believe in Paredes is the year-long contact rate, which stands at 83.8%.

Only 11 hitters have managed contact rates above 80% while barreling the ball above 8% for the year, those names:

• Will Smith
• Brandon Drury
• Freddie Freeman
• Alejandro Kirk
• Mookie Betts
• Josh Naylor
• Jose Altuve
• Abraham Toro
• Anthony Rendon
• Matt Vierling
• Isaac Paredes

Before this hot stretch, Paredes was hitting .197/.265/.443 with four homers on a 7.7% barrel rate and an 82.1% contact rate. That was underperforming, certainly, and over the last three weeks, he's overperformed just as surely.

So who is Paredes really? I imagine he's a good batting average bat with 15-20 homer power over a full season. The upside is bolstered by the fact that he's just 23 years old and in a system that seems to get the most out of the players they get their hands on. The bad news is that he hasn't stolen a base since 2019 and the everyday playing time is not guaranteed.

Josh H. Smith, Texas Rangers

As predicted, steals have been hard to come by this year. Because of that, I'm including Rangers' Josh Smith on the post today. Smith has been the Ranger's lead-off hitter in two of the Rangers' most recent games against right-handed starters.

We know that Smith will not provide much in terms of power (zero barrels, zero homers in 37 plate appearances in the Majors, and just four homers in 208 plate appearances in the minors). We do know that Smith can steal bags (10 steals between the Majors and minors this year in 245 PAs), and should hit for a decent batting average with his 10.8% K% and 74.5% contact rate in the Majors so far. I don't think he'll be a starter against left-handed pitching, and he will be pretty tough to start if he doesn't continue to lead off, but this is someone who could provide some steals if you're in a very deep league and in desperate need of some extra speed.

Matt Vierling, Philadelphia Phillies

He's going to play a little bit more with Bryce Harper on the shelf, and he's taken some advantage of that recently. In his last 51 plate appearances, Vierling has a 12.8% barrel rate with a 46.2% hard-hit rate and a nice 19.6% strikeout rate. He has an impressive 85% contact rate to go with that – so this is a really impressive stretch that Vierling is on. He's also a guy that can steal as he's swiped ten bags in just 197 plate appearances between the minors and majors this year.

The purpose of this post series is to identify talented hitters that may be ready to use those tools to bust out. One interesting thing to do is to look at sprint speed along with max exit velocity to see which players have high marks in both categories. Vierling has a max sprint speed of 29.9 feet per second and a max exit velocity of 112.1. The only other hitters with a sprint speed above 29 ft/sec and a max exit velocity above 112 miles per hour:

Amed Rosario, Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Andres Gimenez, Byron Buxton, Oneil Cruz, Christopher Morel, Michael Harris II, Trea Turner

So it's a pretty decent list here, with a few fantasy studs present. We have known about Vierling's name for a few years without seeing him turn into anything, but he's just 25 years old which is well within the "breakout out of nowhere" range. He will first have to earn everyday playing time, so keep an eye on these Phillies lineups – we'll check back on Vierling next week.

Victor Caratini, Milwaukee Brewers

Here's another free catcher pick. I imagine this guy is available in your league if you're in need of a catcher that won't trash your team. Caratini has hit .247/.378/.433 in 119 plate appearances with the Brew Crew this year, hitting five homers and managing strikeouts well at just an 18.5% K%. His career strikeout rate is strong as well at 21.6%, and he has always hit for a non-awful batting average (career .243 hitter). What is different this year is the power output, as his .433 SLG is near a career-best. His barrel rate is 10.5%, a pretty strong number, and he has a nice 44.7% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% BB% to go with it. He's not an everyday player, but maybe he'll hit his way into a few more starts over Omar Narvaez, so give Caratini a look in two-catcher leagues.

And that's it for this week's breakout picks, hope this helps. Good luck this week, RotoBallers!

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