X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ATC Projections: Overview and How to Use Them for Fantasy Baseball

Bryan Woo - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

As someone who played fantasy football for a lengthier period, the roster size, league depth, and categorical balance remained challenging in fantasy baseball. The player pool becomes difficult to master and understand, especially as the league and roster size grows.

Thankfully, projection systems help give us a baseline of numbers of what to expect before the season. Some systems also project players during the season. In this column, we'll focus on the ATC Projections.

Many of us know about the ATC Projection since we use them during the draft process. However, there's a chance we have more to learn and incorporate from ATC. Ariel Cohen created the ATC Projections and wrote about the projection system basics in the past. I've had the pleasure of interacting with Ariel online. He would be the expert to connect with for more questions. With that, we'll review the basics, discuss how to use them in our draft process, and highlight the unique features. 

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

The Basics of ATC Projections

ATC stands for Average Total Cost, and Ariel Cohen applies weights to different data sources based on which projection systems perform better in specific areas. For instance, if a projection system projects home runs or batting average well, Ariel may weigh that specific system more in the ATC Projections. It's similar to weighting metrics in our formal or informal process of whether it correlates well to future success.

ATC Projections have been consistently one of the most accurate projections based on the FantasyPros ranking contests. We'll discuss how to use them, plus other unique features to examine. The quality projection systems like ATC will test, re-test, and improve their processes over time. We can develop projections and rankings, but we should ask ourselves how much they matter if we don't refine the process. 

 

How to Use ATC Projections?

Like any projection system, we can pull the raw stats for hitters and pitchers, including plate appearances, home runs, stolen bases, batting average, and more. We can also gather other counting stats and rates like walks, strikeouts, and slugging percentages. 

Whether you're a drafter who relies on projections or feels, using the ATC Projections provides a starting point. To rank or sort hitters and pitchers by auction dollars, we download the ATC Projections from RotoBaller or FanGraphs. We can adjust the league size, scoring, and roster settings to customize the projected dollar values when downloading them from FanGraphs.

One may also input the ATC Projections or one of your choice and turn it into Standing Gained Points (SGP), turning into a dollar value for each player. From there, we can adjust the projections and rankings based on research or personal preference.

I wrote a recent article covering positive and concerning hitter surprises using ATC Projections. The simple method would be downloading the ATC Projections and comparing those players to the Average Draft Position (ADP). It provides a glance at potential values or fades based on ATC Projections, then leads us to examine the player's skills and situation more. Ariel often talks about finding projected values, and that's one way to do that based on the ADP market.

 

Unique Features: Inter-Projection Standard Deviation

One aspect of ATC Projections I've used lately involves the Interprojection Volatility. Ariel asks, "How can we quantify a player's projection risk?" Looking at a player's Inter-Projection Standard Deviation or InterSD is one way to identify how much the various projection systems disagree on a player. The higher the InterSD means the projections vary a ton.

In the visual above, we see the hitters with the highest InterSD, suggesting the projections in ATC disagree on the player's value. We filtered by the top 200 in ADP to avoid later-round hitters with varied projections, like Amed Rosario and Jared Triolo. Wyatt Langford has the highest InterSD, which makes sense because his ADP keeps rising with questions about his playing time on the Rangers. That doesn't mean we avoid these hitters, but it gives us a starting point to dig deeper into the projection volatility.

Inside the top 200 ADP, the above visual shows the pitchers with the highest InterSD. Unsurprisingly, these pitchers have injury concerns or unknowns based on limited data, small samples, and questionable roles. When we mention Carlos Rodon, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tanner Bibee, and Walker Buehler, these players typically make us have second thoughts. We used a cutoff of the top 200 in ADP because the opportunity for taking risks later in the drafts tends to be more palatable. 

 

Unique Features: Intra-Standard Deviation

While InterSD looks at the volatility between the projection systems, Intra-Standard Deviation or IntraSD determines the potential unpredictability of a player's profile. A smaller IntraSD means the player has more of a balanced profile, contributing in multiple categories. Meanwhile, a bigger IntraSD shows a player with more unbalanced categories. 

Inside the top 200 picks, the visual above shows us the hitters with the lowest IntraSD, meaning these players give us a balanced categorical profile. As we look down the leaders in the lowest IntraSD, we notice these players have or project to contribute in multiple categories. Some players toward the top right quadrant of the scatter plot look like potential values based on roster needs. 

On the flip side, the hitters above have the highest IntraSD among the top 200 picks. Understandably, Esteury Ruiz pops with his massive stolen base totals and projections. Kyle Schwarber feels like a limited categorical profile, but he contributes in three (home runs, runs, and RBI), with the expected stats hinting at a better batting average. Pete Alonso and Matt Olson fit into similar buckets to Schwarber, but their ADP varies compared to Schwarber.

Kyle Bradish, Bryan Woo, and Buehler rounded out the top three for pitchers. Unfortunately, Bradish and Buehler come into the season with injury concerns, but theoretically, they would contribute in multiple categories. Woo has been one of the sleepers in the middle rounds, and maybe we should target him ahead of his ADP. Farther down the list, we find sleepers in the middle rounds like Gavin Williams, Ryan Pepiot, Chris Sale, and Michael King. That could mean targeting these players based on the IntraSD and other examinations.

Surprisingly or unsurprisingly, several closers have the highest IntraSD. It's unsurprising because players like Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader, Jhoan Duran, and Edwin Diaz contribute in 2-3 categories (saves, ERA, WHIP). While we typically can't fade closers in most formats, it hints at the lack of balance in these pitcher categorical profiles. It's also probably one of the reasons why closers seem overvalued based on the projections. 

We find starting pitchers like Framber Valdez, Aaron Nola, George Kirby, Mitch Keller, and Dylan Cease, as we move farther down the list of pitchers with higher IntraSD. The latter two might have the most question marks for drafters, though their volume of innings and strikeouts make them enticing if they keep the ratios in check.

 

ATC Projections Summary

It's wild to think we have so many projection systems to use in our fantasy baseball draft and season-long preparation. Be cautious when thinking we may know better than the projections. As the saying goes, if we think we know everything, we probably don't know anything. One topic that comes up involves playing time if we project more or less volume. It's easy to love or dislike a player's skill set and think an outcome is highly probable.

Some projection systems tend to be conservative instead of upside expectations, and ATC fits that mold. Beyond rankings and projected values, ATC Projections can help us find potential volatility and categorical balance to consider in the roster-building and drafting process. 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice

draft




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dallas Cowboys59 mins ago

Micah Parsons Expected To Play In Week 10
Dereck Lively II1 hour ago

A Late Scratch On Monday
1 hour ago

Amari Cooper Listed As Day-To-Day
2 hours ago

Joe Flacco Named Week 10 Starter
Robert Williams III2 hours ago

Returning On Monday
Jordan Hawkins2 hours ago

Out Versus The Blazers
Zion Williamson2 hours ago

Sidelined Again Versus Portland
Rudy Gobert2 hours ago

Available For Minnesota On Monday
Immanuel Quickley2 hours ago

Still Out On Monday
Jalen Smith2 hours ago

Available Against Jazz
Brandon Miller2 hours ago

Will Play Versus Minnesota
Josh Giddey3 hours ago

Suiting Up Monday
Lauri Markkanen3 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Monday Night
3 hours ago

Browns "Highly Unlikely" To Trade David Njoku
John Konchar3 hours ago

Ruled Out Monday Versus Nets
3 hours ago

Chase Brown Appears To Be OK Despite Suffering Bruised Rib
3 hours ago

Tee Higgins Estimated As DNP On Monday
3 hours ago

Jameson Williams' Suspension Is Lifted
3 hours ago

Alex Bregman Given Qualifying Offer
3 hours ago

Saquon Barkley Will Be Ready For Week 10 Despite Back Soreness
3 hours ago

Juan Soto Receives Qualifying Offer
Anthony Davis3 hours ago

Available Monday Versus Detroit
4 hours ago

A.J. Brown Considered "Day-To-Day"
Austin Reaves4 hours ago

Suiting Up Monday
4 hours ago

Tyler O'Neill Not Given Qualifying Offer, Headed To Free Agency
Ryan Blaney4 hours ago

Wins At Martinsville And Has Chance To Earn Second Straight Championship
4 hours ago

Bucky Irving Officially Active Against Chiefs
Christopher Bell4 hours ago

Penalized At Martinsville, Removed From Championship Four
D'Angelo Russell4 hours ago

Available Monday
4 hours ago

Nick Pivetta Receives Qualifying Offer
4 hours ago

Colin Rea Heading To Free Agency
4 hours ago

Tigers Decline Casey Mize's 2025 Club Option
4 hours ago

Drake London Considered Day-To-Day
Dean Wade4 hours ago

Won’t Play Against The Bucks
Caris LeVert4 hours ago

Remains Out Versus Milwaukee
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Won’t Suit Up Versus Memphis
Ben Simmons5 hours ago

Out Against The Grizzlies
Kevin Huerter5 hours ago

Still Out On Monday Night
Jake Allen5 hours ago

Faces Oilers On Monday
Stephen Curry5 hours ago

Back For Monday’s Game
BOS5 hours ago

Tyler Johnson Signs One-Year Deal With Bruins
Giannis Antetokounmpo5 hours ago

Won’t Face The Cavs
Zach Benson5 hours ago

Considered "A Possibility" For Tuesday's Game
Artem Zub5 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Monday
Bryan Rust5 hours ago

Will Join Penguins Road Trip
6 hours ago

Braves Exercise Marcell Ozuna's 2025 Option
Juraj Slafkovsky6 hours ago

Practices On Monday
Macklin Celebrini6 hours ago

Ready To Return On Tuesday
6 hours ago

David Fry To Miss 6-8 Months After Having Elbow Surgery
6 hours ago

Gerrit Cole, Yankees Agree To Stick Together
Samuel Ersson7 hours ago

Misses Monday Practice
Carolina Panthers7 hours ago

Panthers Haven't Decided Starting QB For Week 10
Connor McDavid7 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule In Recovery
7 hours ago

Panthers Optimistic Jonathon Brooks Will Debut In Week 10
Philip Broberg7 hours ago

Will Miss Several Weeks With Lower-Body Injury
7 hours ago

Derek Carr To Start In Week 10 For Saints
Valeri Nichushkin8 hours ago

Will Return When First Eligible
8 hours ago

Texans Non-Committal On Nico Collins For Week 10
8 hours ago

Erick All Jr. Officially Out For The Year With Knee Injury
8 hours ago

Mike Macdonald "Optimistic" DK Metcalf Returns In Week 11
8 hours ago

CeeDee Lamb Tagged As Week-To-Week, Optimism He Can Play In Week 10
Tyler Reddick8 hours ago

Not A Factor At Martinsville And Looks Ahead To Phoenix
Kyle Larson8 hours ago

Misses Advancing Through Playoffs Despite Top-Three Finish
Brad Keselowski8 hours ago

Has A Solid Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
Chase Elliott8 hours ago

Loses Out On Winning At Martinsville
9 hours ago

49ers Open Christian McCaffrey's Practice Window
9 hours ago

No Timetable On Zack Moss' Return
9 hours ago

Dak Prescott Expected To Miss Multiple Weeks, IR Trip A Possibility
10 hours ago

Nathan Eovaldi Declines His Player Option
10 hours ago

Brewers Decline Option On Devin Williams
10 hours ago

Michael Wacha, Royals Agree To Three-Year Deal
10 hours ago

Braves Sign Reynaldo Lopez To Three-Year Deal
Rose Namajunas13 hours ago

Drops Decision Matchup
Erin Blanchfield13 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Dustin Stoltzfus14 hours ago

Gets First-Round Knockout At UFC Edmonton
Zach Hyman14 hours ago

Records Two Points In Battle Of Alberta Win
Marc-Andre Barriault14 hours ago

Knocked Out At UFC Edmonton
Matt Boldy14 hours ago

Hits Overtime Winner Versus Toronto
Jared Spurgeon14 hours ago

Delivers Two Assists In Sunday's Win
Trevin Giles14 hours ago

Losses Third Fight In A Row
Alex Ovechkin15 hours ago

Extends Goal Streak To Four Games
Dmitry Orlov15 hours ago

Nets Two Goals Against Capitals
Jeremy Swayman15 hours ago

Collects First Shutout Of The Season
Connor Bedard15 hours ago

Records Three Assists In Sunday's Win
Mike Malott15 hours ago

Wins Decision At UFC Edmonton
NASCAR24 hours ago

Speeding Penalty Foils Martin Truex Jr.'s Last Realistic Shot At Winning
Denny Hamlin24 hours ago

Fails To Advance To Championship 4 But Runs Well
Shane Van Gisbergen1 day ago

Shane van Gisbergen Earns Best Oval Finish at Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Tentatively In Championship 4 Pending Ruling On Manufacturer Orders
MMA1 day ago

Ariane Lipski Submitted At UFC Edmonton
Jasmine Jasudavicius1 day ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Brendson Ribeiro1 day ago

Edges Out Split Decision At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi1 day ago

Falls Short At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Dominates At UFC Edmonton
Artturi Lehkonen1 day ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
NJ1 day ago

Nathan Bastian To Miss "Several Weeks"
Brayden Point1 day ago

Exits With Injury Sunday
2 days ago

Austin Barnes Returning To Los Angeles
2 days ago

David Robertson To Test Free Agency
2 days ago

Giants Exercise Club Option On Wilmer Flores
2 days ago

Owen Miller Shipped To Colorado
2 days ago

Merrill Kelly Staying In Arizona
2 days ago

Eloy Jimenez Headed To Free Agency
Daniel Suarez2 days ago

Will Start 20th At Martinsville
Zane Smith2 days ago

Might Be An Underrated Value Play For Martinsville
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Is A Top DFS Recommendation For Martinsville Lineups
Joey Logano2 days ago

Will Be One To Watch At Martinsville
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Should DFS Players Rely On Brad Keselowski For Martinsville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar2 days ago

Is A Great DFS Option For All Martinsville DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Is Ty Gibbs Worth Rostering At Martinsville This Week For DFS?
Austin Cindric2 days ago

Could Have A Top-20 Performance At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Might Be Usable Only In DFS Tournaments At Martinsville
Chris Buescher2 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster Chris Buescher At Martinsville?
Alex Bowman2 days ago

Expect A Solid Top-10 Performance From Alex Bowman At Martinsville
2 days ago

Joc Pederson To Test Free Agency
2 days ago

Anthony Rizzo Headed To Free Agency
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Erin Blanchfield3 days ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault3 days ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Trevin Giles3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mike Malott3 days ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Brendson Ribeiro4 days ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado4 days ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz4 days ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

Video: MUST ADD Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 10! Fantasy Football 2024

Our top 2024 fantasy football Week 10 waiver wire pickups for RB, WR, TE, and QB. This week's must-add fantasy football free agents -- potential waiver wire winners heading into Week 9 for running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks. Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) - every […]


Rachaad White - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Who Should I Start for Fantasy Football Week 9 MNF? Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Baker Mayfield, Jalen McMillan, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins, Sterling Shepard, more

Who Should I Start for MNF? Who Should I Sit for MNF? Some of the most common Week 9 fantasy football lineup decisions for Monday Night Football are regarding players like Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Baker Mayfield, Jalen McMillan, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins, Sterling Shepard, more. But not to worry, we […]


Marvin Harrison Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, WR, Waiver Wire, NFL DFS, Rookies

Biggest Fantasy Football Busts Of The Week - Fantasy Outlooks For C.J. Stroud, Tank Bigsby, Marvin Harrison, Brian Thomas, Kyle Pitts, Nick Chubb, more

The ninth Sunday of the 2024 NFL season has come and gone. Hopefully, you woke up on Monday morning feeling very good about how your matchup went. However, this week's slate of games was certainly stress-inducing for many fantasy football managers. Part of that stress was caused by a group of players who drastically underachieved […]


Quentin Johnston - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups (QB, RB, WR, TE): Free Agent Adds Include Justin Herbert, Isaac Guerendo, Quentin Johnston, Demarcus Robinson, Taysom Hill

RotoBaller's Week 10 fantasy football waiver wire pickups article for 2024 will cover everyone you need to know that could help your team find replacements for injured players, fill in for players you want to drop, or even help you win a championship. Every week, new players are breaking out. From bench stashes in the […]


Ray Davis - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Waiver Wire Express - Week 10 Lightning Round Including Quentin Johnston, Xavier Legette, Ray-Ray McCloud III, Ray Davis, Jauan Jennings, Cedric Tillman, Bo Nix

October is in the past and many of you are here with shifted clocks, seeking help at wide receiver. Amidst the usual chaos of Sunday's football, we absorbed several high-profile losses at wideout. We're all doing our best to stay hot in November with our fantasy football waiver wire pickups lightning round heading into Week […]


Tyler Allgeier - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 10 Waiver Wire Rankings - Fantasy Football Pickups Include Quentin Johnston, Jalen Tolbert, Ricky Pearsall, Ray Davis, Tyler Allgeier, Mike Gesicki

Week 10 will be here in a few days, and it's time to start bolstering those rosters for the fantasy football playoff push. At RotoBaller HQ, we are back with more waiver wire advice to help build those fantasy rosters with our Week 10 fantasy football waiver wire rankings for 2024. There were more crucial […]


Justin Herbert - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Top Week 10 Quarterback Pickups - Best Fantasy QB Adds, Streamers Include Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and more

It was not a banner week for the quarterback position in fantasy football. There wasn’t a single quarterback that surpassed 300 passing yards between Thursday and the main Sunday slate. We did get a five passing touchdown performance (Joe Burrow) and three quarterbacks with three passing touchdowns, but that was it. Four teams have a […]


DeVon Achane - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Injury News

Top 10 Running Back Studs - Best Fantasy Football RB Performances Including Saquon Barkley, De'Von Achane, Alvin Kamara And More

The running back renaissance is truly upon us in 2024. While rushing touchdowns were down this week, matching the lowest number of the season thus far (23), the top-10 RBs had their best week yet. Week 9 was the first time all season that each athlete to be featured on this list all hit 21 […]


Mike Gesicki - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Unexpected Boom Performances: Fantasy Football Risers Include Mike Gesicki, Quentin Johnston, Ray Davis, Demarcus Robinson, Josh Oliver

Week 9 of the NFL regular season provided fans with some exciting action. The Bills defeated the Dolphins in an AFC East clash thanks to Tyler Bass' game-winning 61-yard FG in the final moments. The Titans and Rams also contributed a pair of overtime victories that enthralled audiences. Many big names showed out for fantasy […]


Ray Davis - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Running Back Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 10: Top Free Agent Adds Include Ray Davis, Jaylen Warren, Tyler Allgeier, Justice Hill

As you read this week’s recommendations from the waiver wire, the planning process for Week 10 roster construction has begun. You have already navigated a collection of obstacles that have emerged through the first nine weeks of the regular season, and should now sustain your efforts to minimize the impact of additional injuries, underwhelming production, […]


AJ Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Top Fantasy Football Injuries From Sunday's Games: Chris Olave, Drake London, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, More

The Week 9 injury report was pretty light compared to the rest of the season. Even still, some big names went down, and they will definitely affect fantasy rosters everywhere. We saw several wide receivers leave games early and had another injury to a starting quarterback. Let’s get into the injury report from yesterday's games […]


Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs MNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Hunt, Rachaad White, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton

Week 9 is already here, and setting optimal lineups has never been more crucial as the fantasy football playoffs near. Read our Monday Night Football matchups analysis article for the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs game to help make any fantasy football lineup decisions for both season-long and DFS. This week's MNF contest sees the undefeated Kansas […]


Travis Kelce - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL DFS Lineup Picks For FanDuel, DraftKings - Buccaneers vs. Chiefs MNF Showdown (Week 9)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a matchup between a pair of banged-up teams in this one, as Baker Mayfield and the shorthanded Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) head up to Kansas City to take on the final remaining undefeated team in the league in the Chiefs (7-0). Both teams are missing key offensive pieces, and let's […]