Champ or Chump: Jonathan India

April 13, 2021

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Cincinnati Reds infielder Jonathan India in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. Can he continue his strong start?

The NL Central was among the most wide-open divisions in all of baseball coming into the season. The Milwaukee Brewers were the favorites if you believe the projected standings at FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, but oddsmakers tended to favor the St. Louis Cardinals after their splashy addition of Nolan Arenado. The Cubs still had their offensive core despite trading Yu Darvish, and the Reds were a team that could contend if everything broke their way. The Pirates exist.

The Reds probably had the most puzzling offseason of the five, refusing to sign any sort of shortstop in favor of moving third baseman Eugenio Suarez there so Mike Moustakas could go from 2B to 3B. That left rookie Jonathan India to start at the keystone. India was also a 3B on the farm, so the team is effectively playing three third basemen. The early results have been decent, with India slashing a robust .379/.394/.483 with 11 RBI in his first week.

Should fantasy managers buy in? That's actually a more complicated question than you might initially expect. The 24-year-old has an impressive pedigree as the fifth overall pick in the 2018 First Year Player Draft, but some scouts thought it was a reach based on his skills. He didn't really hit in his first full professional season, but a wrist injury may have been behind his struggles. He was a "standout performer" at the alternate training site last season, but what does that even mean? Here is a deeper look at Jonathan India.

What the Scouts Say

Perusing scouting reports is an essential component of fantasy baseball these days, so let's learn how to do it. Below is a screenshot of India's scouting grades according to FanGraphs:

All of these numbers are on the 20-80 scouting scale, with 20 being terrible and 80 representing elite skills. Fifty is considered MLB average, and you'll note that India has a whole lot of it in his profile. Hit tool corresponds to batting average, game power to home runs, raw power to home run potential (that could be unlocked with a swing change, etc.), and speed to stolen bases and defense. Plate discipline isn't included in any of these tools, though most written scouting reports will address it separately.

The first number represents present value, meaning that it's what a player is like today. The second number indicates future value and represents where scouts see the player in his prime. Managers in redraft leagues only need the first number as any subsequent improvements will be too late to matter. If you play in a keeper or dynasty league, you may find value in both numbers. "Field" and "FV" don't really matter for our purposes, so feel free to ignore them in your fantasy analysis.

Bearing this in mind, FanGraphs sees India with league-average contact abilities and below-average power, though the potential is there for average power. He's also an average runner, though the fact that his speed is expected to decline isn't a great sign. This isn't a favorable scouting report for fantasy purposes as it lacks the pop and steals we crave.

Scouts aren't infallible though, and it can be beneficial to look at more than one report before reaching your conclusion. Here is MLB.com's scouting report on India:

Again, there are no standout skills. His hit tool is slightly above average, splitting the difference between the present and future estimates on the FanGraphs report. He is average in power and speed and even throws in average fielding for good measure. If you want your lottery tickets to be toolsy like Byron Buxton or Lewis Brinson, India is the opposite of what you're looking for.

One Full Professional Season

India may have average tools, but they didn't translate to average production in 2019. He started the campaign at High-A Daytona and slashed .256/.346/.410 with eight homers and seven steals over 367 PAs. He hit a ton of flies with a FB% of 45.1, but his 7.6% HR/FB prevented him from doing much with them. Worse, Daytona was a power-friendly stadium per Baseball America's 2019 MiLB park factors, with a 1.153 HR factor. He worked walks reasonably well with a 10.1 BB%, but his 22.9 K% wasn't special at all. He was also caught stealing five times, a success rate that won't fly at the MLB level.

The Reds were impressed enough to promote him to Double-A Chattanooga anyway where he slashed .270/.414/.378 with three homers and four steals over 145 PAs. His plate discipline improved dramatically in the admittedly smaller sample (15.2 BB%, 17.9 k%), while his 36.5 FB% was much lower despite a better 9.7% HR/FB. Chattanooga was also a hitter's haven in 2019 with a 1.091 HR factor, so again his power probably wasn't as good as it looked. India struggled in the Arizona Fall League to conclude his season.

India played through a wrist injury in 2019, and wrist injuries are known to sap a player's power. He should have returned to Double-A the next season, but COVID canceled those plans. Reds brass was reportedly impressed by what they saw at the alternate training site last season, but it's tough to draw any conclusions from that since the details aren't publicly available.

What to Expect in 2021

India has a .458 BABIP and zero walks so far this season, both numbers that scream regression. He also hits seventh for Cincinnati most nights, a role that's likely to limit his counting stats despite his impressive 11 RBI to date. He's probably not a big power guy per his scouting reports, and his 69% success rate on SB attempts in 2019 won't earn him a green light in the majors. As such, this author would recommend selling high if the opportunity presents itself, though you might not get too much for a guy who's only rostered in 63% of Yahoo! leagues.

That said, the Reds had a strange offseason primarily to accommodate India and he does have an injury excuse for his poor 2019. The lack of information makes India difficult to project, and he could go 15/15 with a strong batting average. He's also eligible at 2B and 3B in many formats. We know that positional versatility is particularly valuable in deeper leagues where accumulation matters. Unfortunately, the lack of a carrying fantasy skill and relatively low ceiling makes him a Chump.

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