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As we’ve established, player values can fluctuate pretty widely between points leagues and the more popular, traditional rotisserie and head-to-head formats.
If this is your first experience with a points league, you may be wondering how to identify players whose contributions make them more or less appealing for that particular scoring system. You've come to the right place.
Today, we're looking at some potential outfield sleepers and busts, or draft targets and avoids in points leagues.
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Overvalued for Points Leagues
Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
An 80-game suspension for PEDs derailed Marte’s season last year. When he did play, a look at his surface numbers suggests he was on his usual pace, but there are some red flags under the hood. Marte’s contact quality took a nosedive, resulting in the worst BABIP and ISO marks of his career. The latter has been steadily declining for years. Marte has also never been much for patience at the plate; he’s drawn a walk in just under five percent of his MLB plate appearances.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
In 2017, Buxton shook off a horrid start to finish the season with 16 home runs and 29 stolen bases in 30 attempts. Along with his tremendous defense in center field, that was enough to make him a 3 – 5 win player depending on which site’s WAR metric you use. He’s the 15th outfielder off the board in NFBC drafts, but didn’t come anywhere close to that lofty perch in points leagues last year. Those steals are, of course, less valuable in points leagues than other formats, and Buxton still struck out in nearly 30 percent of his trips to the plate.
Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds
Obvious answer is obvious. Hamilton’s a one-trick pony, and while his trick is elite, it’s also not particularly valuable in points formats. He’ll likely lead the league in stolen bases, but the Hamburglar hasn’t proven he can contribute much else to a fantasy squad. You can live with that in roto or H2H leagues, given the scarcity of steals around the game. In standard points leagues, though, he’s a back-end outfielder given his inability to hit. Hamilton also has missed 114 games over the last three seasons with a variety of soft-tissue injuries.
Undervalued for Points Leagues
Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets
The only real question with Cespedes is his health. He’s been extremely productive over the last three seasons but suited up for only 81 games last season, and he was playing through injury in many of them. The Mets have new coaching and training staffs, which along with an offseason of recuperation could keep Cespedes’ injury risk lower than perceived. If so, you can expect a high average, lots of extra-base hits, and solid plate discipline.
Willie Calhoun, Texas Rangers
Assuming he wins the starting job in left field as expected, Calhoun could be one of the best values on draft day in this format. His ADP currently sits outside the top 250, but he has all the foundational skills you want from a points league perspective. Calhoun rarely whiffs, for one thing; he ran strikeout rates in the 10 – 12% range throughout his minor-league career. He also drew walks at a solid clip and racked up extra-base hits. While his MLB resume is limited to last season’s 13-game sample, there’s little doubt among talent evaluators or projection systems that Calhoun’s bat will play at the big-league level.
