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Our series of bold predictions continues. It has been a while since I contributed here at RotoBaller, but with my Master's Thesis winding down and the baseball season looming, I felt it was about time to hop back into the fold. Let's dust off the old hunch machine and see what kind of bold fantasy baseball predictions I can come up with this year.
I'm one auction draft deep at this point, and it was blatantly clear to me during that draft that I haven't done enough research for the season yet. Even still, here's a few players I'm high on and some that I will be avoiding.
Let's get to it!
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Tom Bellucco's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017
1. Byron Buxton will be a top 20 OF in 5x5 roto leagues
Buxton was the top prospect in baseball what seems like forever ago, but he struggled each and every time the Twins tried to bring him up to the bigs. That was, until September of last year. After finally regaining his power stroke with the AAA Rochester Redwings (I witnessed one of his towering bombs in person at Frontier Field in August), he returned to the Major Leage club and mashed nine home runs in the final month of games.
If he can produce those bombs at even half the pace he displayed in September, we're looking at a 22-25 HR outfielder with blistering speed. I'd imagine the worrisome strikeout rate will regress, and .280 will be an attainable batting average for Buxton. In both roto and points leagues, espeically those that don't penalize for strikeouts, that's a great value for his current consensus ADP of 178 (FantasyPros).
2. Yasmani Grandal will hit 30+ HR this season
Some fantasy analysts see Grandal's 27 HRs last year as an inflated number, aided by a high HR/FB percentage (25%) and of course the league-wide power boom. I think it's a sign of more things to come. Sure, I'm partially biased since his power binge carried me to a championship late last season, but hear me out. Grandal had a crazy high hard hit percentage of nearly 39% in 2016 and pulled the ball over 40% of time he made contact. That combination combined with a 39% fly ball rate makes for a decent power hitter.
Sure, Grandal rests a little more than the average catcher. And yeah, he has had some injury worries in the past. But hey, if this guy can get back some of the batting average points from 2015 and keep hitting hard balls in this Dodger lineup, you can expect top 5 production at a catcher position that rarely provides this type of power boost in roto leagues.
3. Joey Votto and Freddie Freeman will join Paul Goldschmidt in the top 3 of points league first baseman
Goldschmidt is not part of this bold prediction. This is basically my way of saying Votto and Freeman are two of my favorite first baseman to draft this season. Especially in points leagues where extra base hits and walks count for something, these two studs are right up my alley.
Both hitters have the ability to leave the ballpark at any time, and the young reinforcements joining their lineups should help their overall production. Votto has the better contact skills when he is on, so obviously he'll be the first to come off the board. Still, Freeman shouldn't be far behind, and both have the ability to put up gamechanging numbers, just like we saw at the end of last season.
4. James Paxton will become an ace
We saw glimpses of some nasty, nasty pitching by Paxton at the end of last season. He finally got his fastball and curveball to work together in the perfect harmony, baffling any hitter who dared to swing at them. According to Paul Sporer, a mechanical change vaulted Paxton's average fastball velocity to 96.8 mph (third best among starters in the MLB).
If Paxton can stay healthy and improve on his 171 total innings last year, the potential is there for him to turn this mechanical change into a career path change. You can currently get him just before Buxton, and he may also rank in the top 20 at his position come season's end.
5. Sean Manaea will strike out 200 batters in 2017
What can I say, I love my big lefties. I think the only thing holding Manaea back from completing this feat is a potential innings limit... OK so there are other possible outcomes. Even still, this is another young pitcher who made great strides in striekout and walk rates at the end of last season.
Manaea has an elite slider that he pairs with a decent four-seem fastball and changeup. With improved command at the end of 2016 and the ability to get ahead in counts, he put his strikeout slider on display. If Manaea can convince his manager to give him 190 innings or so this season, 200 strikeouts and fantasy stardom are firmly in reach.
6. Hector Neris saves 35 games in 2017
Yes, I am also predicting that the Phillies will win 35 games. Crazy, I know (Go Pirates!). As a Pirates fan, I have seen Jeanmar Gomez pitch first hand. Let me tell you, I have no idea how he succeeded as a closer last season. Needless to say, I'm not convinced. I'm predicting impending doom for Gomez, and thus expect the talented Neris to be closing by May.
Neris has elite strikeout per inning stuff, and if he can win the job I think this Phillies team will give him plenty of close leads to work with. Especially in leagues that reward holds alongside saves, Neris is a relief pitcher to keep an eye on come draft day.
7. Daniel Murphy will hit below .290 this season
I don't have a whole lot of stats to back this one up, other than the vague notion that 31-year old players just don't up and raise their batting averages .70 points... like ever.
I get it, he benefitted from moving to a better lineup and redefined his swing. Whatever. What I will say is that I won't be spending a third round pick on him. Or a fourth. Or a fifth. So I guess I'm not getting him.
8. The worst case scenario happens with Billy Hamilton
Everyone's excited by the massive stolen base and run potential that the speedy Hamilton provides. And sure, it's exciting to think about his skill set. But everyone who's drafting him before rounds 9 or 10 is taking a huge leap of faith.
Remember, this is a guy who almost lost his job a couple of times due to inability to get on base. It's tough to be productive in the steals and runs categories when you're in the dugout. Hamilton could have very well turned a corner last year, but I'll believe it when he does it for a full season. Until then, I'll settle for proven hitters who can contribute accrose the board in the middle rounds over the risky Hamilton.
9. Matt Harvey will be on the waiver wire by the end of the 2017 season
This is my way of saying that Harvey is on my "Do Not Draft" list. We saw the warning signs last season when his fastball velocity dropped and his strikeout rate followed suit. The once ace pitcher had numerous rought starts last year, and while there are some murmers of optimism coming from risk-taking fantasy owners this draft season, I'm not one of them.
My stance is simple: There are too many up and coming pitchers to be taking shots on someone like Harvey at this stage in his career. Sure, there's a chance he turns back into a decent option in the middle of your fantasy rotation. But that seems like the best case scenario at this point. You'll find me taking shots on guys like Robbie Ray and Tyler Glasnow instead.
10. Andrew McCutchen has the best right fielder season in Pittsburgh since Roberto Clemente
I saved my homer pick for last, and be warned there's not much backing it. McCutchen said all the right things in his Player's Tribune article last month. He's now being asked to shift over to right field, and it would be a great time to demand a trade in order to resurrect his career as a center fielder for a team who actually makes big moves at the trade deadlines.
But Cutch is staying put, and it seems like he's embracing this unique opportunity. As a diehard Buccos fan, I can't be any happier. McCutchen wants to fill the shoes of The Great One, standing in the shadows of The Clemente Wall instead of dead center field. I've never been much of a narrative guy, but I promise you that I'll have some McCutchen shares by the time April rolls around, especially if he gets off to a slow start. Let's see if the man who revived baseball in Pittsburgh can return to his status as the feared, clutch hitter he was two years ago.
