TAP FOR 6 MONTHS OF PREMIUM FREE 💰
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Tom Bellucco's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

Our series of bold predictions continues. It has been a while since I contributed here at RotoBaller, but with my Master's Thesis winding down and the baseball season looming, I felt it was about time to hop back into the fold. Let's dust off the old hunch machine and see what kind of bold fantasy baseball predictions I can come up with this year.

I'm one auction draft deep at this point, and it was blatantly clear to me during that draft that I haven't done enough research for the season yet. Even still, here's a few players I'm high on and some that I will be avoiding.

Let's get to it!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Tom Bellucco's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

1. Byron Buxton will be a top 20 OF in 5x5 roto leagues

Buxton was the top prospect in baseball what seems like forever ago, but he struggled each and every time the Twins tried to bring him up to the bigs. That was, until September of last year. After finally regaining his power stroke with the AAA Rochester Redwings (I witnessed one of his towering bombs in person at Frontier Field in August), he returned to the Major Leage club and mashed nine home runs in the final month of games.

If he can produce those bombs at even half the pace he displayed in September, we're looking at a 22-25 HR outfielder with blistering speed. I'd imagine the worrisome strikeout rate will regress, and .280 will be an attainable batting average for Buxton. In both roto and points leagues, espeically those that don't penalize for strikeouts, that's a great value for his current consensus ADP of 178 (FantasyPros).

 

2. Yasmani Grandal will hit 30+ HR this season

Some fantasy analysts see Grandal's 27 HRs last year as an inflated number, aided by a high HR/FB percentage (25%) and of course the league-wide power boom. I think it's a sign of more things to come. Sure, I'm partially biased since his power binge carried me to a championship late last season, but hear me out. Grandal had a crazy high hard hit percentage of nearly 39% in 2016 and pulled the ball over 40% of time he made contact. That combination combined with a 39% fly ball rate makes for a decent power hitter.

Sure, Grandal rests a little more than the average catcher. And yeah, he has had some injury worries in the past. But hey, if this guy can get back some of the batting average points from 2015 and keep hitting hard balls in this Dodger lineup, you can expect top 5 production at a catcher position that rarely provides this type of power boost in roto leagues.

 

3. Joey Votto and Freddie Freeman will join Paul Goldschmidt in the top 3 of points league first baseman

Goldschmidt is not part of this bold prediction. This is basically my way of saying Votto and Freeman are two of my favorite first baseman to draft this season. Especially in points leagues where extra base hits and walks count for something, these two studs are right up my alley.

Both hitters have the ability to leave the ballpark at any time, and the young reinforcements joining their lineups should help their overall production. Votto has the better contact skills when he is on, so obviously he'll be the first to come off the board. Still, Freeman shouldn't be far behind, and both have the ability to put up gamechanging numbers, just like we saw at the end of last season.

 

4. James Paxton will become an ace

We saw glimpses of some nasty, nasty pitching by Paxton at the end of last season. He finally got his fastball and curveball to work together in the perfect harmony, baffling any hitter who dared to swing at them. According to Paul Sporer, a mechanical change vaulted Paxton's average fastball velocity to 96.8 mph (third best among starters in the MLB).

If Paxton can stay healthy and improve on his 171 total innings last year, the potential is there for him to turn this mechanical change into a career path change. You can currently get him just before Buxton, and he may also rank in the top 20 at his position come season's end.

 

5. Sean Manaea will strike out 200 batters in 2017

What can I say, I love my big lefties. I think the only thing holding Manaea back from completing this feat is a potential innings limit... OK so there are other possible outcomes. Even still, this is another young pitcher who made great strides in striekout and walk rates at the end of last season.

Manaea has an elite slider that he pairs with a decent four-seem fastball and changeup. With improved command at the end of 2016 and the ability to get ahead in counts, he put his strikeout slider on display. If Manaea can convince his manager to give him 190 innings or so this season, 200 strikeouts and fantasy stardom are firmly in reach.

 

6. Hector Neris saves 35 games in 2017

Yes, I am also predicting that the Phillies will win 35 games. Crazy, I know (Go Pirates!). As a Pirates fan, I have seen Jeanmar Gomez pitch first hand. Let me tell you, I have no idea how he succeeded as a closer last season. Needless to say, I'm not convinced. I'm predicting impending doom for Gomez, and thus expect the talented Neris to be closing by May.

Neris has elite strikeout per inning stuff, and if he can win the job I think this Phillies team will give him plenty of close leads to work with. Especially in leagues that reward holds alongside saves, Neris is a relief pitcher to keep an eye on come draft day.

 

7. Daniel Murphy will hit below .290 this season

I don't have a whole lot of stats to back this one up, other than the vague notion that 31-year old players just don't up and raise their batting averages .70 points... like ever.

I get it, he benefitted from moving to a better lineup and redefined his swing. Whatever. What I will say is that I won't be spending a third round pick on him. Or a fourth. Or a fifth. So I guess I'm not getting him.

 

 8. The worst case scenario happens with Billy Hamilton

Everyone's excited by the massive stolen base and run potential that the speedy Hamilton provides. And sure, it's exciting to think about his skill set. But everyone who's drafting him before rounds 9 or 10 is taking a huge leap of faith.

Remember, this is a guy who almost lost his job a couple of times due to inability to get on base. It's tough to be productive in the steals and runs categories when you're in the dugout. Hamilton could have very well turned a corner last year, but I'll believe it when he does it for a full season. Until then, I'll settle for proven hitters who can contribute accrose the board in the middle rounds over the risky Hamilton.

 

9. Matt Harvey will be on the waiver wire by the end of the 2017 season

This is my way of saying that Harvey is on my "Do Not Draft" list. We saw the warning signs last season when his fastball velocity dropped and his strikeout rate followed suit. The once ace pitcher had numerous rought starts last year, and while there are some murmers of optimism coming from risk-taking fantasy owners this draft season, I'm not one of them.

My stance is simple: There are too many up and coming pitchers to be taking shots on someone like Harvey at this stage in his career. Sure, there's a chance he turns back into a decent option in the middle of your fantasy rotation. But that seems like the best case scenario at this point. You'll find me taking shots on guys like Robbie Ray and Tyler Glasnow instead.

 

10. Andrew McCutchen has the best right fielder season in Pittsburgh since Roberto Clemente

I saved my homer pick for last, and be warned there's not much backing it. McCutchen said all the right things in his Player's Tribune article last month. He's now being asked to shift over to right field, and it would be a great time to demand a trade in order to resurrect his career as a center fielder for a team who actually makes big moves at the trade deadlines.

But Cutch is staying put, and it seems like he's embracing this unique opportunity. As a diehard Buccos fan, I can't be any happier. McCutchen wants to fill the shoes of The Great One, standing in the shadows of The Clemente Wall instead of dead center field. I've never been much of a narrative guy, but I promise you that I'll have some McCutchen shares by the time April rolls around, especially if he gets off to a slow start. Let's see if the man who revived baseball in Pittsburgh can return to his status as the feared, clutch hitter he was two years ago.

 

More 2017 RotoBaller Predictions




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jason Day

Has a Good Chance to Keep Momentum Going at FIO
Keegan Bradley

has Good Course History at Torrey Pines
Cam Thomas

Will Be Available Tuesday in Phoenix
Billy Horschel

Isn't a Great DFS Option at Torrey Pines
Malik Monk

Ruled Out on Tuesday
Zach LaVine

Will Not Play Tuesday in New York
Aaron Rodgers

Mike McCarthy Says he Wants Aaron Rodgers to Return
Bilal Coulibaly

Ready to Return to Action Against Portland
Deni Avdija

Draws Another Questionable Tag on Tuesday
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Will Not Play Tuesday Against Clippers
Lauri Markkanen

Available Tuesday Night
Will Zalatoris

Has a Shot to Challenge at the Farmers Insurance Open
Adam Scott

Can Continue Hot Start to 2026 Season at Farmers Insurance Open
Keith Mitchell

Hoping For a Strong Finish at Farmers Insurance Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Continue Strong Start at Farmers Insurance Open
Tom Hoge

Can Continue Hot Start to 2026 Season at Farmers Insurance Open
Harris English

Has a Chance to Repeat as Winner at the Farmers Insurance Open
Patrick Cantlay

Continues Playing Well and Can Compete at Farmers Insurance Open
Ludvig Aberg

Looks to Bounce Back After Withdrawing at American Express
Drake Maye

Expected to be Fine for Super Bowl
Xander Schauffele

is The Best Fit at Torrey Pines This Week
Tennessee Titans

Titans Set to Hire Brian Daboll as New Offensive Coordinator
Justin Rose

Making 16th Start at Farmers Insurance Open
Maverick McNealy

is a Smart Play at Torrey Pines
Buffalo Bills

Bills Promote Joe Brady to Head Coach
Brooks Koepka

Making PGA Tour Return at Farmers Insurance Open
CFB

Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi Signs with Michigan
Teuvo Teravainen

Set to Return Tuesday
CFB

Darian Mensah Reaches Settlement with Duke, Expected to Land at Miami
Simon Edvinsson

Out Until Olympics
Josh Norris

Won't Play This Week
Zeev Buium

Lands on Injured Reserve
Brock Boeser

Canucks Place Brock Boeser on Injured Reserve
Sean Durzi

Hurt on Monday Night
Lauri Markkanen

Expected to Return Tuesday
Keyonte George

Resting Tuesday
Malik Monk

Tagged as Questionable for Tuesday
Zach LaVine

Iffy for Tuesday's Action
Kawhi Leonard

Questionable Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Without Timetable for Return
Devin Booker

Unavailable This Week
Anthony Edwards

Won't Play on Monday Night
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Not Expected to Play on Tuesday Night
Jalen Green

Questionable to Suit Up on Tuesday
Santi Aldama

Back in Action on Monday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Not Drawing Interest on Open Market?
Tre Jones

Sidelined Versus Lakers
Jonas Brodin

to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Sam Merrill

Won't Play Monday
Kasperi Kapanen

Returns From Three-Game Absence Monday
Lawson Crouse

Available Against Lightning
Draymond Green

Considered Questionable for Monday
Carson Soucy

Won't Play Monday
Rasmus Ristolainen

Returns to Flyers Lineup
Ryan Pulock

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Shedeur Sanders

Named as Pro Bowl Replacement
Simon Holmstrom

a Game-Time Call Monday
Framber Valdez

Among Many High-End Pitchers on Free-Agent Market
Jose Altuve

Won't Participate in World Baseball Classic
Harrison Bader

Agrees With Giants on Two-Year Deal
Paddy Pimblett

Drops Decision
Justin Gaethje

Becomes the New Interim-Lightweight Champion
Song Yadong

Suffers Unanimous Decision Loss
MMA

Sean O'Malley Gets Back In The Win Column
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Extends His Win Streak
Derrick Lewis

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Officially Hire Mike McDaniel as Offensive Coordinator
Nathan Eovaldi

Doesn't Expect Any Limitations in Spring Training
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Dominates in NFC Championship Game Win
Scott Wedgewood

Activated From Non-Roster List
Nikita Zadorov

Questionable for Monday
Stephen Halliday

Injured Sunday
Jack St. Ivany

Exits With Upper-Body Injury Sunday
Brock Boeser

Takes Hit to the Head
Evgeni Malkin

Suffers Apparent Injury in Sunday's Win
Philipp Kurashev

Joins Sharks for Road Trip
Charle-Edouard D'Astous

Placed on Injured Reserve
Matthew Stafford

Plans to Return in 2026
CFB

Arthur Smith to Become Ohio State's Offensive Coordinator
Bo Nix

Sidelined for 12 Weeks With Broken Ankle
Jose Altuve

to Mainly Play Second Base
Yu Darvish

Considering Retirement
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Finalizing Deal to Make Mike McCarthy Their Head Coach
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Signs Seven-Year Extension With Guardians
Gunnar Henderson

is Fully Healthy Heading into Spring Training
Tyreek Hill

Dolphins Expected to Release Tyreek Hill
Paddy Pimblett

Set For Interim Lightweight Title Fight
Justin Gaethje

An Underdog At UFC 324
Song Yadong

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Sean O'Malley Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Derrick Lewis

Returns At UFC 324
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Philip Rivers

Interviewing for Bills Head-Coaching Job
NFL

Fernando Mendoza Officially Declares for NFL Draft
CFB

Arch Manning Undergoes Foot Surgery
Dalton Kincaid

Played Through Torn PCL
CFB

College Football Playoff Expected to Remain a 12-Team Field in 2026
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Hire Jesse Minter as Their Head Coach
Indianapolis Colts

FBI Investigating the Death of Colts Owner Jim Irsay
MacKenzie Gore

Rangers Acquire MacKenzie Gore From the Nationals
Brandon Sproat

Dealt to Brewers in Four-Player Trade
Jett Williams

Brewers Acquire Jett Williams From Mets
Freddy Peralta

Mets Acquire Freddy Peralta From Brewers

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP