X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Tom Bellucco's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

Our series of bold predictions continues. It has been a while since I contributed here at RotoBaller, but with my Master's Thesis winding down and the baseball season looming, I felt it was about time to hop back into the fold. Let's dust off the old hunch machine and see what kind of bold fantasy baseball predictions I can come up with this year.

I'm one auction draft deep at this point, and it was blatantly clear to me during that draft that I haven't done enough research for the season yet. Even still, here's a few players I'm high on and some that I will be avoiding.

Let's get to it!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Tom Bellucco's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

1. Byron Buxton will be a top 20 OF in 5x5 roto leagues

Buxton was the top prospect in baseball what seems like forever ago, but he struggled each and every time the Twins tried to bring him up to the bigs. That was, until September of last year. After finally regaining his power stroke with the AAA Rochester Redwings (I witnessed one of his towering bombs in person at Frontier Field in August), he returned to the Major Leage club and mashed nine home runs in the final month of games.

If he can produce those bombs at even half the pace he displayed in September, we're looking at a 22-25 HR outfielder with blistering speed. I'd imagine the worrisome strikeout rate will regress, and .280 will be an attainable batting average for Buxton. In both roto and points leagues, espeically those that don't penalize for strikeouts, that's a great value for his current consensus ADP of 178 (FantasyPros).

 

2. Yasmani Grandal will hit 30+ HR this season

Some fantasy analysts see Grandal's 27 HRs last year as an inflated number, aided by a high HR/FB percentage (25%) and of course the league-wide power boom. I think it's a sign of more things to come. Sure, I'm partially biased since his power binge carried me to a championship late last season, but hear me out. Grandal had a crazy high hard hit percentage of nearly 39% in 2016 and pulled the ball over 40% of time he made contact. That combination combined with a 39% fly ball rate makes for a decent power hitter.

Sure, Grandal rests a little more than the average catcher. And yeah, he has had some injury worries in the past. But hey, if this guy can get back some of the batting average points from 2015 and keep hitting hard balls in this Dodger lineup, you can expect top 5 production at a catcher position that rarely provides this type of power boost in roto leagues.

 

3. Joey Votto and Freddie Freeman will join Paul Goldschmidt in the top 3 of points league first baseman

Goldschmidt is not part of this bold prediction. This is basically my way of saying Votto and Freeman are two of my favorite first baseman to draft this season. Especially in points leagues where extra base hits and walks count for something, these two studs are right up my alley.

Both hitters have the ability to leave the ballpark at any time, and the young reinforcements joining their lineups should help their overall production. Votto has the better contact skills when he is on, so obviously he'll be the first to come off the board. Still, Freeman shouldn't be far behind, and both have the ability to put up gamechanging numbers, just like we saw at the end of last season.

 

4. James Paxton will become an ace

We saw glimpses of some nasty, nasty pitching by Paxton at the end of last season. He finally got his fastball and curveball to work together in the perfect harmony, baffling any hitter who dared to swing at them. According to Paul Sporer, a mechanical change vaulted Paxton's average fastball velocity to 96.8 mph (third best among starters in the MLB).

If Paxton can stay healthy and improve on his 171 total innings last year, the potential is there for him to turn this mechanical change into a career path change. You can currently get him just before Buxton, and he may also rank in the top 20 at his position come season's end.

 

5. Sean Manaea will strike out 200 batters in 2017

What can I say, I love my big lefties. I think the only thing holding Manaea back from completing this feat is a potential innings limit... OK so there are other possible outcomes. Even still, this is another young pitcher who made great strides in striekout and walk rates at the end of last season.

Manaea has an elite slider that he pairs with a decent four-seem fastball and changeup. With improved command at the end of 2016 and the ability to get ahead in counts, he put his strikeout slider on display. If Manaea can convince his manager to give him 190 innings or so this season, 200 strikeouts and fantasy stardom are firmly in reach.

 

6. Hector Neris saves 35 games in 2017

Yes, I am also predicting that the Phillies will win 35 games. Crazy, I know (Go Pirates!). As a Pirates fan, I have seen Jeanmar Gomez pitch first hand. Let me tell you, I have no idea how he succeeded as a closer last season. Needless to say, I'm not convinced. I'm predicting impending doom for Gomez, and thus expect the talented Neris to be closing by May.

Neris has elite strikeout per inning stuff, and if he can win the job I think this Phillies team will give him plenty of close leads to work with. Especially in leagues that reward holds alongside saves, Neris is a relief pitcher to keep an eye on come draft day.

 

7. Daniel Murphy will hit below .290 this season

I don't have a whole lot of stats to back this one up, other than the vague notion that 31-year old players just don't up and raise their batting averages .70 points... like ever.

I get it, he benefitted from moving to a better lineup and redefined his swing. Whatever. What I will say is that I won't be spending a third round pick on him. Or a fourth. Or a fifth. So I guess I'm not getting him.

 

 8. The worst case scenario happens with Billy Hamilton

Everyone's excited by the massive stolen base and run potential that the speedy Hamilton provides. And sure, it's exciting to think about his skill set. But everyone who's drafting him before rounds 9 or 10 is taking a huge leap of faith.

Remember, this is a guy who almost lost his job a couple of times due to inability to get on base. It's tough to be productive in the steals and runs categories when you're in the dugout. Hamilton could have very well turned a corner last year, but I'll believe it when he does it for a full season. Until then, I'll settle for proven hitters who can contribute accrose the board in the middle rounds over the risky Hamilton.

 

9. Matt Harvey will be on the waiver wire by the end of the 2017 season

This is my way of saying that Harvey is on my "Do Not Draft" list. We saw the warning signs last season when his fastball velocity dropped and his strikeout rate followed suit. The once ace pitcher had numerous rought starts last year, and while there are some murmers of optimism coming from risk-taking fantasy owners this draft season, I'm not one of them.

My stance is simple: There are too many up and coming pitchers to be taking shots on someone like Harvey at this stage in his career. Sure, there's a chance he turns back into a decent option in the middle of your fantasy rotation. But that seems like the best case scenario at this point. You'll find me taking shots on guys like Robbie Ray and Tyler Glasnow instead.

 

10. Andrew McCutchen has the best right fielder season in Pittsburgh since Roberto Clemente

I saved my homer pick for last, and be warned there's not much backing it. McCutchen said all the right things in his Player's Tribune article last month. He's now being asked to shift over to right field, and it would be a great time to demand a trade in order to resurrect his career as a center fielder for a team who actually makes big moves at the trade deadlines.

But Cutch is staying put, and it seems like he's embracing this unique opportunity. As a diehard Buccos fan, I can't be any happier. McCutchen wants to fill the shoes of The Great One, standing in the shadows of The Clemente Wall instead of dead center field. I've never been much of a narrative guy, but I promise you that I'll have some McCutchen shares by the time April rolls around, especially if he gets off to a slow start. Let's see if the man who revived baseball in Pittsburgh can return to his status as the feared, clutch hitter he was two years ago.

 

More 2017 RotoBaller Predictions




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF