The Tight End Age Cliff: When Should You Fade Aging Fantasy Football Veterans?

In professional football, the "age cliff" of a player is the age at which their production takes a sharp downturn and never recovers. While plenty of players have down seasons and others suffer career-ending or career-altering injuries, these are different than simple declines due to their bodies not being able to handle NFL punishment or their explosiveness fading.

It's a natural thing to happen, but not fun for fantasy football managers. And for those who are looking to get a thorough understanding of who to draft and target, knowing when a player still has some good years left and when to fade them completely is very important.

So, let's look at the dreaded tight-end age cliff, break down some players who are at various (later) stages in their careers, and how the cliff can help us determine how they'll perform in the future and whether we should continue targeting them.

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An Important Aside: Injury Histories And Elite Players

If you haven't already read the running back age cliff article, I recommend you check it out. The gist of it is that elite players tend to take a little longer to fall off due to age than non-elite players. And we saw an example of that play out last season with Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce.

By accolades and statistics, he's probably the best player at his position in NFL history. He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer, no doubt. And he was still tearing up NFL defenses at the age of 33. Using him as a benchmark and assuming this is the age where serious decline begins is a mistake.

Travis Kelce’s 2022 season:

-Had 101 more PPR Points than TE2.
-outscored TE6 and TE7 - combined
- Would have been WR5 Overall
- Outscored RB4
- Career High 152 Targets at age 33
- Dropped the Stanky Leg after catching a TD in The Super Bowl he won.

pic.twitter.com/e5ngsogkcB

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) June 10, 2023

He is the exception rather than the rule. It makes sense if you think about it -- players with higher athletic and production ceilings can have a decline in overall athleticism, but if they're in an elite situation and they haven't begun to truly tank yet, they can have their best season, fantasy football-wise at least.

What Age Should You Start Being Concerned?

Fortunately, tight ends can remain competitive for longer than most other positions in the league. And in fact, we've seen plenty of examples of this in the recent league. It doesn't make perfect sense to use elite players as an example, and the reasons for that are detailed above. But compared to running backs, things are rosier.

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle, for example, played 15 games in 2024, catching 78 of his 94 targets for 1,106 yards and eight touchdowns. And he turned 31 in October of last year, so he's definitely past the dreaded three-decade mark. Yet, he showed little signs of slowing down and was still elite.

The People's Tight End 👏

Watch George Kittle's top plays from the 2024 season. pic.twitter.com/LMUVfKOErA

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 10, 2025

It doesn't appear that he's fallen off yet. A clearer picture is beginning to emerge here. You should probably start getting at least a little concerned around age 30 for most TEs. They're usually able to produce at a high level late into their 20s. There's not a ton of reason to be concerned as long as their age starts with a two, though.

Mark Andrews JUST MOSSED THE DEFENDER FOR THE TOUCHDOWN 🔥

Perfect ball placement from Jackson 💪 pic.twitter.com/gyPiEwSoLT

— ESPN (@espn) November 26, 2024

Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews is, thus, still firmly in his prime. He'll turn 30 right around the start of the 2025-26 NFL season, and his age isn't a concern at all yet. His usage is another story, though that's not relevant to this article.

This gives us hope for Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson to recover fully and return to his elite play in 2025. He also tore his ACL in the fantasy playoffs in 2023 and didn't look to be his old self when he returned this season, though he played well enough and was held back by quarterback Sam Darnold.

¡Sam Darnold y TJ Hockenson atacan por el centro! 💪#MundoNFL #SKOL pic.twitter.com/BRczvLXpcW

— Mundo NFL (@MundoNFL) December 29, 2024

Hock is probably a long way from falling off.

What Age Should You Start Fading Tight Ends?

Probably around 31 for not-great tight ends and 33-34 for good TEs. The most notable name around this age is Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee, who just turned 32 years old. He tore his ACL in the playoffs of the 2023-24 season, though, so it's possible he could experience a sharp fall-off soon.

Yet, in the playoffs this season, he looked fantastic, though he was knocked out of one contest by a strange chest injury that he quickly recovered from. Higbee does appear to still have good days ahead of him, as his playoff usage suggests.

The way the Rams used Tyler Higbee over the last 4-5 weeks is why I think they prioritize a TE in the draft.

Higbee has gotten a lot of criticism from the fanbase, but he showed why he's the best TE in franchise history.

Makes a tough catch at the goal line for a TD. pic.twitter.com/Upj637ISx4

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) January 23, 2025

He was used early and often in the Wild Card game against the Minnesota Vikings, racking up five catches on his five targets for 54 yards, all in the first quarter, before exiting with his injury. And against the Philadelphia Eagles, quarterback Matthew Stafford threw the ball his way 10 times, and he caught seven passes for 58 yards and a touchdown.

Two other tight ends are 30 years old now. New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry, who will turn 31 in December, and Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram, who will be 31 when next season starts. They're probably both fine in the short term.

Henry isn't exactly an elite player, but he did just fine last season and didn't appear to have fallen off massively. It's possible he could have had his slight fall-off season, but the situation with New England was hard to evaluate. He had a solid quarterback in rookie Drake Maye and not a ton of serious target competition.

Evan Engram jumps over everyone for that TD pic.twitter.com/wrHNlhXlwl

— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) October 27, 2024

In Engram's case, it's not super easy to evaluate him. He only played in nine games in 2024 due to injury. But he still looked pretty good when he played. It's hard to tell if he would have had a slight overall decline in production, as he was hyper-targeted in 2023.

But he probably has at least one more good year in him if he can stay mostly injury-free. The same can't be said for Kelce. His career is probably over, and this blurb could be completely irrelevant if he chooses to retire. He's reportedly been mulling calling it quits.

Travis Kelce exits #SuperBowlLIX after what could be the final game of his NFL career

(via @RobMaaddi) pic.twitter.com/JYgqCebmTT

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 10, 2025

But you should avoid him in fantasy, anyway. He's now 35 and will turn 36 in October. And we'll touch on one last player -- Washington Commanders TE Zach Ertz. You should probably fade him now. The Commanders threw him the ball a lot because their options outside of him and WR Terry McLaurin were terrible. If they know what's good for them, they'll pick up another good receiver as soon as possible.

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