Dynasty Fantasy Football Avoids - Players To Trade Away and Fade in Dynasty Start-Up Drafts

There are always players that are overvalued in Dynasty fantasy football, and if you happen to take them in a start-up draft, you can be in big trouble. It's not always easy to predict how players' careers will go, though. They can seemingly rise and fall in drafts without much warning.

And owning a player that experiences a precipitous fall in value, especially during the year immediately after you draft them, can have serious consequences for your squad. You need your highly-drafted players to return multiple years of value, often necessitated by excellent talent.

So, let's break down the five biggest players to avoid in Dynasty start-up drafts ahead of the 2025-2026 NFL season.

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RB Kyren Williams

Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams has been a steady RB1 through his last two seasons. That's cool. But his serious decline in efficiency in 2024 and his career-long fumbling issues should give fantasy managers some pause before they pick him in Dynasty start-ups.

Running back volume is a fragile thing in the NFL. Some coaching schemes prefer to funnel the majority of their touches through their lead RB, but when they get punished for doing so, it can become a bad idea. And Williams plodded his way to averaging 4.1 yards per carry this season after averaging 5.0 in 2023.

This is Kyren Williams in one play.

Good elusiveness in the backfield. Shows good vision.

Only thing missing is the breakaway speed. A RB with breakaway speed scores here. A stumbling Baun catches him.

Rams have to settle for a FG. pic.twitter.com/hZNqFxt5mN

— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) January 23, 2025

That's not to say he's a bad player. But the team picked RB Blake Corum in the 2024 NFL Draft with a higher pick than they used on KW, and despite the fact that the Michigan product's rookie season was completely forgettable, he actually had more usage than Williams did in his first year in the NFL.

It's possible Rams head coach Sean McVay wants to take more load off Williams' shoulders -- though he was mostly healthy in 2024, he had a ton of touches and dealt with injury issues earlier in his career. Corum was profiled very similarly to Williams in college while being significantly faster.

RBs who aren't elite athletes usually aren't good picks in the early rounds in Dynasty start-ups. Someone like Buffalo Bills RB James Cook is a better pick. He's a far superior athlete, plays on a great offense, and is more efficient and creates more long explosive plays than Williams can. They're priced nearly identically.

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. was one of the most hyped wideout prospects in recent memory, yet he had an overall disappointing first season in the league. One of the reasons he declined to participate in NFL Combine or pro day testing is now clear -- he lacks elite athleticism.

In particular, his acceleration off the line and top speed are remarkably sluggish. This is a much bigger problem in the big leagues than it is in college, since NFL defenses are much more athletic. It's tougher to bully pass-defenses with contested catch ability, because the defenders are much stronger as well.

Marvin Harrison, Jr.

This was defended before Harrison could encounter the target,

Still, note the sub-optimal attack he's using. It's a bad habit. pic.twitter.com/QJpfWhzSsm

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2024

Among the chief criticisms of his game, other than his speed was that his formerly elite (in college) contested-catch abilities weren't even close to what they were in college. There aren't a ton of clips floating around on X, but for the most part, he struggled to hang on to passes after he was hit.

There's plenty of criticism about the quarterback situation, though, and they're fair. QB Kyler Murray hasn't been a great passer for some time, and in 2024, he ranked 21st in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. The current scheme is run-first, partially to accommodate for his deficiencies.

Trey McBride HURDLES FOR THE FIRST DOWN! 🐇

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/OVsA6KMkZR

— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) January 5, 2025

To add to his problems, tight end Trey McBride was actually the team's No. 1 pass-catcher in 2024. Not only was he targeted far more than Harrison (147 targets to MHJr's 114), but he caught nearly twice as many passes (111 to just 62) and gained 261 more receiving yards despite playing one fewer game.

McBride is one of the NFL's best tight ends, and that could be an additional thorn in the side for Harrison's fantasy managers for years to come.

TE Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews had a horrendous start to the season, in the minds of his fantasy managers at least. After his first two games, in which he caught a total of six passes for 55 yards, he laid two straight goose eggs, failing to catch either of his two targets across Weeks 3 and 4.

While he got back on track, at least from a fantasy-scoring perspective, and ended the season with 11 touchdowns, his usage was not great. The team ran a rotation of three tight ends, featuring Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Charlie Kolar. Andrews' snap percentage, routes, and overall usage suffered as a result.

This Ravens TD drive:

TE Charlie Kolar: 54-yard catch
TE Isaiah Likely: TD

TE Mark Andrews: nothingpic.twitter.com/FPBUGN6EsJ

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) October 6, 2024

Kolar broke his arm in Week 12, though, paving the way for more consistent usage for Andrews. Most fantasy managers still think he's a safe option to bet on and have forgotten about his early-season woes, but the Ravens' scheme involving three TEs heavily is a big red flag.

It's not as if Likely or Kolar are terrible, either. Kolar was selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He's not a great receiving option, but it's possible Baltimore wanted to manage Andrews' load more closely. His usage as a blocker in the first few weeks was also too much for comfort.

The Ravens did everything from heavy personnel on Sunday, using Charlie Kolar, Patrick Ricard, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely early and often to create different looks in the run game. Likely runs away from the nickel here to create separation on this deep over. pic.twitter.com/OxSAzvmpd0

— Max Toscano (@maxtoscano1) January 15, 2025

They were content with running the ball extremely heavy early on, too. It wasn't until the defense started surrendering more points that they were forced to pass more heavily. And when they did, the ball was distributed very evenly. Baltimore showed no problems with using him primarily as a run-blocker when they had the option. If the defense stiffens up in 2025, things could get ugly for his usage.

Andrews' remarkable touchdown consistency in 2024 is propping up his fantasy value, but he was only targeted 69 times in 17 games. That amounts to under 4.1 targets per game, down from 6.1 in 2023, over 7.5 in 2022, and over 9.0 in 2021. The precipitous decline in targets is very concerning.

Earlier in his career, the team didn't have other options in the passing game. But the emergence of wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers, the increasing usage of Likely and Kolar, and the possibility that the team could invest another pick in a wide receiver make drafting Andrews as your primary tight end in a Dynasty startup a risky prospect.

TE Tucker Kraft

Another tight end shows up on the list. Though Green Bay Packers TE Tucker Kraft had a... breakout? No, he just had seven touchdowns. His usage was certainly better than it was in his first season, but it was far from consistent. Green Bay is a team that lacks a No. 1 pass-catching option and instead prefers to heavily distribute targets in a way that makes fantasy managers want to break things.

Kraft accrued 70 targets over 17 games, catching 50 of them for 707 yards and seven touchdowns. But his usage was very inconsistent, and he managed just three games with over 15.0 PPR fantasy points. The Packers employed a run-heavy Shanascheme offense and Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Josh Jacobs. And typically they prefer to have a second RB take targets as well.

Tucker Kraft 2024 highlights...

You can never have enough players like Tuck. pic.twitter.com/l7YiAfxceY

— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) January 23, 2025

The tape is actually very solid. But you're still much better off taking a wide receiver or running back around the 70s, which is where he's ranked in Dynasty startups. Green Bay would be well served investing a premium pick on a receiver or trading for someone else to become their WR1. That will dilute the target share even more. It's not a great outlook, though the offense overall is solid for fantasy.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

While he had a great breakout season in 2024, it's hard to see him continuing his dominance over that WR room for a variety of reasons, and his overall production from now on may be dragged down by the arrival of new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

JSN appeared to take over the WR1 job from fellow wideout DK Metcalf. But a knee injury in Week 7 held him back significantly, as he clearly wasn't back to 100 percent when he returned. And the previous offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, employed an extremely pass-heavy offense, which actually led to his firing after just one season.

2024 Pass Rate Over Expected when leading & trailing pic.twitter.com/Y3dO4G7eHU

— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) October 16, 2024

Grubb often abandoned the run game without giving it a chance to work. That won't be happening in the future. The Seahawks have clearly signaled that they plan on running the ball much more heavily in 2025.

Highlights from Klint Kubiak’s introductory presser as Seahawks OC:

-Running the ball will be their identity, per Kubiak. He said Geno Smith was a “huge draw.”

-Mike Macdonald said more coaching additions are coming, and they’re still working through Tyler Lockett’s situation. pic.twitter.com/Pfitg3SUGl

— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) February 11, 2025

Obviously, if the team trades Metcalf, this changes. But Kubiak and head coach Mike Macdonald spoke about their plans to maximize his talent.

Asked new #Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak how he’s going to maximize DK Metcalf.

“A lot to work with. His physical presence…”

Mike Macdonald said that was “at the top of their mind” to every OC candidate, and “Klint has the best idea” how to max 14. pic.twitter.com/Y33WoPz2J7

— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) February 11, 2025

It seems more likely that he won't be going anywhere. Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is going through a resurgence in his career, but his past poor play could return at any point. Also, Seattle's offensive line is terrible at pass protection. All these factors make Smith-Njigba a risky pick at his sky-high ADP.

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